The Denver Nuggets head to Xfinity Mobile Arena as heavy double-digit underdogs for a Monday night clash with the Philadelphia 76ers. With Nikola Jokic sidelined, Bash breaks down whether the 12-point spread offers enough value for a road ATS pick.
The Setup: Nuggets at 76ers
The Philadelphia 76ers are laying 12 points at home against the Denver Nuggets on Monday night, and on the surface, this number makes sense. Denver’s walking into Xfinity Mobile Arena without Nikola Jokic, who’s out at least four weeks with a hyperextended left knee. Philadelphia just rattled off three straight wins, including a road beatdown of the Knicks where Tyrese Maxey dropped 36 and Joel Embiid looked like himself again with 26. The market sees a depleted Nuggets squad facing a surging 76ers team with their stars healthy, and that’s how you get to a double-digit spread.
Here’s the thing — I get why the line exists, but once you dig into what Denver’s actually been doing on the road and how this matchup plays out over possessions, that margin starts to feel stretched. The Nuggets are 13-7 on the road this season, which is the third-best road record in the Western Conference. Even without Jokic, they’ve got Jamal Murray averaging 25.4 points and 7.2 assists, and they just got Aaron Gordon and Christian Braun back from injury. Philadelphia’s home court advantage is real at 9-8, but it’s not dominant. And with Kelly Oubre Jr. out and Embiid listed as probable with a knee issue, the 76ers’ depth takes a hit in a spot where they need to cover a big number.
Let me walk you through why this line exists and why I think there’s value on the other side.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: January 5, 2026, 8:30 ET
Venue: Xfinity Mobile Arena
Spread: Philadelphia 76ers -12.0 (-110) | Denver Nuggets +12.0 (-110)
Total: Over/Under 231.0 (-110)
Moneyline: 76ers -667 | Nuggets +449
Why This Line Exists
The market’s pricing in a massive talent gap, and I understand the logic. Jokic is the best player in basketball right now — 29.6 points, 12.2 rebounds, and 11.0 assists per game — and losing him fundamentally changes how Denver operates. He’s their entire offense, their primary facilitator, and the engine that makes everything work. Without him, the Nuggets lose their best playmaker, their most efficient scorer, and the guy who dictates pace and controls possessions. That’s worth points on the spread, no question.
Philadelphia’s also riding momentum. Maxey’s been on an absolute tear, leading the team with 31.1 points per game, and Embiid’s back to contributing 22.8 points and 6.8 rebounds. VJ Edgecombe added 26 in their last win, and Paul George chipped in 15. The 76ers have multiple scoring options, and when they’re clicking, they can overwhelm teams at home. The oddsmakers see a Nuggets team missing their MVP candidate and a 76ers squad with three straight wins, and that’s how you land on a 12-point spread.
But here’s where I start to push back. Denver’s 23-12 record isn’t built on Jokic alone. Murray’s been exceptional this season, and with Gordon and Braun back in the rotation, they’ve got enough firepower to stay competitive. The Nuggets also play at a pace that limits possessions, which naturally compresses margins. When you do the math over 96-100 possessions, asking Philadelphia to win by 13 or more requires sustained dominance, and I’m not sure this 76ers roster — even at home — has the depth to maintain that gap for 48 minutes.
Denver Nuggets Breakdown: What You Need to Know
The Nuggets are in a tough spot without Jokic, but they’re not helpless. Jamal Murray is averaging 25.4 points and 7.2 assists, and he’s more than capable of carrying the offensive load in stretches. Murray’s at his best when he’s got the ball in his hands, and with Jokic out, his usage rate spikes. He’ll need to be aggressive early and often, and I expect Denver to lean heavily on pick-and-roll sets with Murray as the primary ball-handler.
Aaron Gordon just returned from injury and put up solid numbers before his absence — 18.9 points and 5.9 rebounds per game. Getting him back gives Denver a versatile forward who can defend multiple positions and finish around the rim. Christian Braun’s return also adds depth to the rotation, which matters in a game where Denver needs to avoid getting run off the floor in bench minutes.
The main concern is efficiency. Without Jokic orchestrating the offense, Denver’s going to struggle to generate high-percentage looks consistently. They’ll rely more on Murray’s shot creation and Gordon’s transition opportunities, which can be volatile. But the Nuggets have been excellent on the road this season at 13-7, and they’ve shown they can compete in hostile environments. That’s not just a stat — it’s how this team tilts when they’re away from home.
Philadelphia 76ers Breakdown: The Other Side
Philadelphia’s got the firepower to blow teams out, but they’re also dealing with some rotation issues. Kelly Oubre Jr. is out with a knee injury, and he’s been a key contributor at 16.8 points and 5.1 rebounds per game. Losing Oubre thins out their wing depth, and it puts more pressure on Maxey and Embiid to carry the scoring load.
Tyrese Maxey has been phenomenal, averaging 31.1 points and 7.1 assists, and he’s the engine that drives Philadelphia’s offense. When Maxey’s aggressive and attacking downhill, the 76ers are tough to stop. Joel Embiid is listed as probable, which is encouraging, but he’s dealing with a knee issue and hasn’t been his dominant self this season. At 22.8 points and 6.8 rebounds per game, he’s still productive, but those numbers are down from his MVP-level output in previous years.
The 76ers are 9-8 at home, which is solid but not overwhelming. They’ve won three straight, but two of those wins came against teams with their own injury issues. The Knicks game was impressive, but New York’s been inconsistent all season. Philadelphia’s got the talent to cover 12 points, but they’ll need to sustain their intensity for a full 48 minutes, and I’m not convinced their depth can hold up if Embiid’s minutes are limited or if Maxey has an off night.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This matchup comes down to pace and efficiency. Denver’s going to try to slow this game down and limit possessions, which naturally compresses the margin. Without Jokic, they can’t afford to get into a shootout with Philadelphia, so expect them to grind possessions, work the shot clock, and focus on half-court execution. Murray will need to control the tempo and avoid turnovers, and Gordon will need to be active on the boards to limit second-chance opportunities for the 76ers.
Philadelphia wants to push the pace and exploit Denver’s lack of rim protection without Jokic. Maxey thrives in transition, and the 76ers will look to attack early in the shot clock and force Denver into scramble situations. Embiid’s presence in the paint is crucial — if he’s limited or not fully healthy, Denver’s going to have more success finishing at the rim and staying within striking distance.
I keep coming back to this efficiency gap. Philadelphia’s offense is potent when Maxey and Embiid are both rolling, but they’re missing Oubre, and their bench depth is questionable. Denver’s road record suggests they’re capable of hanging around in tough environments, and Murray’s shot creation gives them a puncher’s chance to keep this game within the number. When you do the math over 96-100 possessions, asking Philadelphia to win by 13 or more requires them to dominate both ends, and this matchup narrows the margin more than the line suggests.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m taking Denver Nuggets +12.0 for 2 units. The main risk here is obvious — Jokic is out, and he’s irreplaceable. If Philadelphia comes out hot and Maxey goes nuclear in the first half, this game could get ugly fast. But I’ve accounted for the home court, and it still doesn’t get there. Denver’s 13-7 road record tells me they know how to compete away from home, and Murray’s capable of keeping them within striking distance. Philadelphia’s missing Oubre, Embiid’s banged up, and their home record at 9-8 doesn’t scream dominance.
Twelve points is a lot to lay in a game where the underdog has a legitimate All-Star point guard and just got two rotation players back from injury. I’m not saying Denver wins outright, but I like their chances to keep this game within two possessions down the stretch. Give me the Nuggets plus the points.
