Our comprehensive betting preview for Columbia vs. Cornell examines the battle between Cooper Noard’s scoring and the Lions’ elite interior defense. Dive in for the essential ATS pick and key handicapping data before the 5:00 PM ET tip-off.
The Setup: Columbia at Cornell
Cornell’s laying 2.5 points at home against Columbia on Monday night, and I can already hear the confusion: How is a 5-5 team favored over a 9-1 squad? Look, I get it. The records scream Columbia, but when you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com efficiency numbers, this line isn’t just defensible – it might be giving us value on the home side.
Here’s the thing – Columbia’s 9-1 record looks impressive until you realize their two losses came in their only real road tests against quality competition (California and that Stony Brook game where they couldn’t close). Meanwhile, Cornell’s been living in a completely different universe offensively, ranking 16th nationally in scoring at 91.1 points per game and sporting the 9th-ranked effective field goal percentage in the country at 60.5%. This is an Ivy League game that’s going to look nothing like a typical Ivy League game, and that’s exactly why the oddsmakers are respecting the home team despite the record disparity.
The adjusted efficiency gap tells the real story here. Columbia checks in at #74 in adjusted net rating (9.9) while Cornell sits at #136 (3.0). That’s a meaningful difference, but not a chasm – and definitely not one that should make a 9-1 team an underdog. Let me walk you through why this number actually makes perfect sense.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Matchup: Columbia (9-1) @ Cornell (5-5)
Date: January 5, 2026
Time: 5:00 PM ET
Location: Newman Arena, Ithaca, NY
Spread: Cornell -2.5 (DraftKings) / -2 (Bovada)
Total: 169.5 (DraftKings) / 169 (Bovada)
Moneyline: Cornell -115, Columbia -105
Why This Number Makes Sense
The efficiency numbers from collegebasketballdata.com explain everything about this line. Yes, Columbia has the better adjusted defensive rating (104.1, ranked #102) compared to Cornell’s porous 113.2 (#288). But here’s why this line makes sense: Cornell’s adjusted offensive efficiency of 116.2 ranks 52nd nationally, while Columbia sits at 114.0 (#75). That’s a 2.2-point edge in offensive efficiency for the home team.
Now factor in the defensive gap going the other way – Columbia’s 9-point advantage in adjusted defensive efficiency – and you’re looking at a net difference that favors Columbia by about 6-7 points on a neutral floor. Give Cornell 3-4 points for home court at Newman Arena, and suddenly that 2.5-point spread looks perfectly calibrated.
But I keep coming back to those shooting numbers because they’re just too extreme to ignore. Cornell’s 40.6% from three-point range ranks 9th in the entire country, and they’re attempting them at volume with that elite effective field goal percentage. Columbia defends the three reasonably well (29.7% opponent three-point shooting, #67 nationally), but they haven’t faced an offense this efficient yet. Cornell also leads the nation in assists per game at 21.3 (#1) – that’s not just ball movement, it’s why this offense can consistently generate high-quality looks against anyone.
The pace factor matters here too. Cornell plays at 72.7 possessions per game (#49) while Columbia crawls at 68.1 (#196). Cornell’s going to push tempo at home, and over 71-72 possessions, that shooting efficiency gap becomes magnified.
Columbia’s Situation
The Lions have been impressive defensively, allowing just 65.6 points per game (#39 nationally) with a defensive rating of 96.3 (#44). Kenny Noland leads the way at 17.1 points per game, and they’ve got legitimate size with Zine Eddine Bedri pulling down 7.4 rebounds (#136) and Blair Thompson adding 6.4 boards (#255).
Columbia’s shooting profile is legitimately elite – 50.2% from the field (#34) and 39.6% from three (#20). They’re also crushing teams on the glass with 43.6 rebounds per game (#9 nationally). That rebounding edge could be massive in this game.
But here’s the concern: Columbia turns it over 13.5 times per game (#277) with a turnover ratio that ranks #274 nationally. Against Cornell’s ball pressure and in a faster-paced environment than they’re comfortable with, those turnovers could spike. They also don’t force many turnovers themselves (5.6 steals per game, #307), which means they’ll need to win this game in the halfcourt.
Cornell’s Situation
The Big Red are an offensive juggernaut that simply cannot guard anyone. Cooper Noard is a legitimate star at 20.2 points per game (#30 nationally), and they’ve got three other double-figure scorers in Adam Hinton (14.6 PPG) and Jake Fiegen (14.2 PPG). That balance, combined with the nation’s best assist rate, makes them incredibly difficult to scheme against.
The shooting numbers are absurd – 49.5% from the field, 40.6% from three, and a true shooting percentage of 63.1% that ranks 14th nationally. When you’re moving the ball like they do (21.3 assists per game) and shooting it like that, you’re going to score in bunches.
The problem is obvious: they allow 85.8 points per game (#349) with a defensive rating of 112.3 (#280). Opponents are shooting 47.6% from the field (#334) and 36.3% from three (#314) against them. This is a team that’s going to give up points in droves – the question is whether they can outscore you.
Recent form is concerning with three straight losses, but two came on the road (Michigan State and Samford) and one was a competitive 90-93 game. At home, they just demolished Alfred State 133-65, showing what this offense can do in a comfortable environment.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game lives and dies on whether Columbia can slow Cornell’s pace and control the glass. Columbia’s #9 national ranking in rebounding against Cornell’s #308 offensive rebounding percentage is a massive mismatch. If the Lions can limit second chances and push Cornell into one-shot possessions, they’ve got a real chance.
But here’s the matchup that seals it for me: Cornell’s three-point shooting against Columbia’s perimeter defense. Yes, Columbia holds opponents to 29.7% from three, but they haven’t faced a team that shoots 40.6% and creates this many open looks through ball movement. Cornell’s effective field goal percentage is 9th in the country – do that math over 72 possessions at a 3-point differential, and you’re looking at a 9-10 point advantage just from shooting efficiency.
The head-to-head history heavily favors Cornell, with the Big Red winning the last three meetings including a 100-81 drubbing and a 94-83 victory. Cornell knows how to score against Columbia’s defense.
The main risk here is if Columbia’s size and rebounding dominance creates enough extra possessions to overcome the shooting efficiency gap. Columbia’s also the more disciplined team with better coaching and tournament experience. But I’ve considered all of that, and the home court advantage combined with Cornell’s offensive firepower is still too massive to ignore in a building where they just scored 133 points.
My Play
The Pick: Cornell -2.5 (-110) for 2 units
I’m laying the short number with the home team. Cornell’s offensive efficiency is too elite, and Columbia’s turnover issues could get exploited in the faster pace. The Big Red have owned this matchup historically, and that nation-leading assist rate tells me they’ve got the offensive structure to attack Columbia’s defense.
I’m projecting Cornell 87, Columbia 82. The Lions will keep it close with rebounding and defense, but Cornell’s shooting and home court should be enough for a 5-6 point win that covers the 2.5.
The main risk is Columbia controlling tempo and turning this into a 65-possession rock fight where their defensive rating takes over. But Cornell’s going to push pace at home, and when they do, I trust the 9th-ranked effective field goal percentage in the country to get the job done. This line is short for a reason – Cornell’s defense is terrible – but sometimes you’ve got to trust the offense, especially when it’s this historically efficient.
