Our comprehensive betting guide examines the tactical battle between St. John’s and Butler as they meet for the first time this conference season. Bryan Bash delivers his best bet, focusing on the efficiency gap and transition scoring.
The Setup: St. John’s at Butler
St. John’s is laying 4.5 points at Hinkle Fieldhouse on Tuesday night, and honestly, this number feels light given what I’m seeing in the efficiency metrics. The Red Storm check in at #22 nationally in adjusted net efficiency according to collegebasketballdata.com, while Butler sits at #42. That’s a 20-spot gap in the most predictive metric we have, yet we’re only getting less than a field goal?
Here’s the thing – St. John’s comes into this Big East matchup at 5-3 with one of the better defensive profiles in the conference, ranking #27 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency at 97.6. They’re playing at a breakneck pace (#21 at 74.4 possessions per game), and Butler’s going to have to keep up or get run out of their own building. I keep coming back to those efficiency numbers because they’re just too extreme to ignore – an 18.9 adjusted net rating versus Butler’s 14.8 tells me we’ve got a legitimate talent gap here, even on the road.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Matchup: St. John’s @ Butler
Date: January 6, 2026
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Venue: Hinkle Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN
Spread: St. John’s -4.5
Total: 161.5
Moneyline: St. John’s -162 (DraftKings) / -195 (Bovada)
Why This Number Makes Sense (or Doesn’t)
Let me walk you through the efficiency gap that’s making this line look attractive. St. John’s ranks #49 in adjusted offensive efficiency at 116.5, while their adjusted defensive rating of 97.6 ranks #27 nationally per collegebasketballdata.com. Butler counters with a slightly better adjusted offensive mark of 117.0 (#43), but their defensive rating of 102.2 (#66) is nearly five points worse than St. John’s.
Do that math over 73 possessions – splitting the difference between St. John’s pace of 74.4 and Butler’s 72.9 – and you’re looking at a raw efficiency advantage that projects closer to 7-8 points, not 4.5. That’s not just a number on a spreadsheet – it’s why St. John’s has been able to hang with elite competition this season despite some losses.
The Four Factors tell an even clearer story. Butler shoots it beautifully from three at 39.4% (#21 nationally), but St. John’s has a massive advantage on the glass with an offensive rebounding rate of 36.8% (#18) compared to Butler’s 33.1% (#114). In a game that should feature 145-150 total possessions, that offensive rebounding gap is worth 5-6 extra possessions minimum. St. John’s also forces more chaos – 8.8 steals per game (#64) versus Butler’s 7.6 (#152) – and at this pace, those transition opportunities add up fast.
St. John’s Situation
The Red Storm are built to run, ranking #21 nationally in tempo, and they’ve got the horses to sustain it. Zuby Ejiofor leads the way at 15.5 points per game, but the real story is the depth – five guys averaging double figures with Bryce Hopkins (15.1 PPG) and Ian Jackson (11.4 PPG) providing secondary scoring punch.
Here’s what matters for this matchup: St. John’s ranks #18 nationally in offensive rebounding percentage. That’s elite. When you combine that with their pace, they’re generating 173 fast break points through eight games – they want to turn this into a track meet. Their 336 points in the paint also tells you they’re not just jacking threes; they’re attacking the rim relentlessly.
The weakness? Three-point shooting at just 33.0% (#202). That’s concerning against a Butler team that defends the arc reasonably well. But I keep coming back to this: St. John’s ranks #27 in adjusted defensive efficiency. They’re holding opponents to 41.1% from the field and 31.1% from three. That defensive foundation travels, even to Hinkle.
Butler’s Situation
Butler’s got some real weapons, starting with Finley Bizjack’s 18.0 points per game and Michael Ajayi’s monster stat line of 16.2 points and 11.6 rebounds (#4 nationally). That rebounding number from Ajayi is legit – he’s one of the best glass cleaners in college basketball.
The Bulldogs shoot it exceptionally well, ranking #21 nationally from three at 39.4% and #43 in overall field goal percentage at 49.6%. Their 56.5% effective field goal percentage (#55) is strong. But here’s the problem: they’re playing at just 72.9 possessions per game (#46), and St. John’s is going to push that number up whether Butler wants it or not.
Recent form is concerning. Butler just dropped three straight – losses to Villanova (67-85), at Creighton (85-89), and at UConn (60-79). That Villanova loss at home is particularly troubling because it shows they can get blown out at Hinkle when facing superior talent. Their adjusted defensive efficiency of 102.2 (#66) isn’t terrible, but it’s not good enough to slow down this St. John’s attack.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game lives and dies on the glass and in transition. St. John’s offensive rebounding rate of 36.8% against Butler’s defensive rebounding is the single biggest mismatch. Michael Ajayi is a beast on the boards, but he’s one guy. St. John’s has Ejiofor (6.9 RPG), Dillon Mitchell (6.5 RPG), and Hopkins (5.0 RPG) all crashing. That’s three legitimate rebounders versus essentially Ajayi and Jamie Kaiser Jr. (5.6 RPG).
Here’s the matchup that seals it for me: pace control. St. John’s wants 75+ possessions. Butler wants low 70s. Guess what? The visiting team with the more aggressive style usually wins that battle, especially when they’ve got the athletes to get out and run. St. John’s generates 173 fast break points compared to Butler’s 148 – that 25-point gap over eight games tells you who’s more comfortable in transition.
The three-point shooting is Butler’s best chance to stay in this. At 39.4%, they can make St. John’s pay for pushing tempo if they get quality looks in transition. But St. John’s defends the three at 31.1% allowed, so even that advantage gets neutralized somewhat. The main risk here is if Butler gets hot from deep early and slows the game down with made baskets, but I’ve considered all of that, and the rebounding advantage is still too massive to ignore.
My Play
The Pick: St. John’s -4.5 (-110) for 2 units
I’m laying the points with the Red Storm in a game I think they win by 8-10. The adjusted efficiency gap is real, the rebounding mismatch is glaring, and Butler’s recent form suggests they’re not ready for a team that’s going to punch them in the mouth for 40 minutes. St. John’s has the better defense, the more physical style, and the pace advantage.
Give me something around St. John’s 84, Butler 76. The Red Storm get out in transition early, dominate the offensive glass, and pull away in the final eight minutes when their depth and conditioning take over. Butler keeps it respectable with some timely threes from Bizjack, but they can’t overcome giving up second-chance opportunities.
Could Butler’s shooting get nuclear and steal this? Sure. Could Ajayi have a 20-20 game and single-handedly keep them in it? Possible. But the efficiency metrics, the style matchup, and the rebounding edge all point to St. John’s value at under a field goal. I’m betting the better team covers on the road.
