Shorthanded and bruised, the Memphis Grizzlies host the Phoenix Suns as 4.5-point home underdogs. Bryan Bash breaks down why the Grizzlies’ resilient bench might be the sharp pick against a Suns team that struggles to pull away on the road.
The Setup: Suns at Grizzlies
The Phoenix Suns head into FedExForum on January 7, 2026, at 8:00 ET laying 4.5 points (MyBookie) against a Memphis Grizzlies squad that’s been grinding through injuries and inconsistency. On the surface, this number makes sense — Phoenix sits at 21-15 with the better record, while Memphis limps along at 16-20 and tenth in the West. The Suns are getting Devin Booker’s 25.7 points per game and solid contributions from Dillon Brooks, who’s averaging 21.2. But here’s the thing: this line assumes Phoenix can consistently execute on the road, and their 9-10 road record tells a different story than their 12-5 home mark. Memphis might be struggling, but they’re 8-9 at home, and with Ja Morant potentially sidelined again, the pace and efficiency dynamics shift in ways that narrow this margin more than the market suggests. Let me walk you through why this line exists and why I’m not convinced Phoenix covers it.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game: Phoenix Suns at Memphis Grizzlies
Date & Time: January 7, 2026, 8:00 ET
Venue: FedExForum
Spread: Suns -4.5 (-110) / Grizzlies +4.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Suns -189 / Grizzlies +151
Total: 232.0 (Over/Under -110)
Why This Line Exists
The market landed on Suns -4.5 because Phoenix holds the better record and has superior offensive firepower on paper. Devin Booker at 25.7 points per game and Dillon Brooks adding 21.2 gives them a legitimate one-two punch that Memphis can’t match, especially with Ja Morant listed as day-to-day with a right calf contusion. Morant’s 19.0 points and 7.6 assists are critical to Memphis’s offensive rhythm, and without him, the Grizzlies struggled in their last game. That’s why the line opened with Phoenix as the favorite.
But once you dig into the matchup data, the 4.5-point spread starts to feel stretched. Phoenix’s road splits are concerning — they’re 9-10 away from home, which means they’re barely above .500 when traveling. Memphis, meanwhile, is 8-9 at FedExForum, not dominant but competitive enough to keep games close. The Grizzlies just beat San Antonio 106-105 behind Cam Spencer’s 21 points, showing they can execute in tight situations even without their best player. That’s not just a stat — it’s how this game tilts when you factor in venue and situation.
The total sitting at 232.0 also tells us the market expects a reasonably paced game. Neither team is elite defensively, but Memphis has been grinding out lower-scoring affairs at home when Morant’s usage isn’t dictating tempo. If Spencer and Vince Williams handle point guard duties again, expect a more methodical approach that keeps possessions in the mid-90s rather than pushing 100-plus.
Phoenix Suns Breakdown: What You Need to Know
Phoenix’s offensive identity revolves around Devin Booker’s scoring and playmaking. At 25.7 points and 6.3 assists per game, he’s the engine that makes everything work. Dillon Brooks at 21.2 points gives them a secondary scorer who can create his own shot, and Grayson Allen’s 15.5 points with 4.2 assists provides floor spacing and ball movement. That’s a legitimate three-headed attack that should, in theory, overwhelm a Memphis defense that’s allowing opponents to score.
The problem is consistency on the road. Phoenix’s 9-10 road record reveals they struggle to maintain their offensive efficiency away from home. They’re not getting the same clean looks, and their defensive rotations break down more frequently in hostile environments. The recent loss to Houston — where Kevin Durant (now with the Rockets) hit a game-winner against his former team — showed how fragile Phoenix can be in close road games. They had a chance to win but couldn’t execute down the stretch.
Injury-wise, Phoenix is relatively healthy. Jamaree Bouyea and Jalen Green are out, but both are two-way or depth players who don’t significantly impact rotation minutes. The core is intact, which is why the market trusts them to win this game. But winning and covering 4.5 points on the road are two very different propositions.
Memphis Grizzlies Breakdown: The Other Side
Memphis’s season has been defined by inconsistency and injury management. At 16-20, they’re fighting to stay relevant in the playoff race, and Ja Morant’s day-to-day status with a right calf contusion adds uncertainty. Morant’s 19.0 points and 7.6 assists are irreplaceable in terms of offensive creation, but the Grizzlies have shown they can compete without him. Cam Spencer dropped 21 points in their last game against San Antonio, including five points in the final 1:26 to secure a 106-105 win. That’s the kind of performance that keeps teams competitive even when undermanned.
Jaren Jackson Jr. at 18.5 points and 5.6 rebounds provides interior presence, and Santi Aldama’s 14.1 points with 6.8 rebounds gives them versatility on both ends. The issue is depth — John Konchar is out recovering from thumb surgery, and Cedric Coward is day-to-day with an ankle injury. That limits their rotation flexibility, but it also forces them to play tighter rotations with their best players getting extended minutes.
At FedExForum, Memphis is 8-9, which means they’re competitive at home even if they’re not dominant. They defend well enough to keep games close, and when Spencer or Williams step up in Morant’s absence, they can execute in half-court sets. That’s critical against a Phoenix team that doesn’t blow opponents out on the road.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This matchup comes down to pace and efficiency over possessions. If Memphis plays without Morant again, expect Cam Spencer and Vince Williams to control tempo and keep the game in the mid-90s for possessions. That slower pace benefits Memphis because it limits Phoenix’s transition opportunities and forces them into half-court execution, where the Suns have been less efficient on the road.
Phoenix wants to push tempo and get Booker and Brooks clean looks in the open floor. When they do that, they’re dangerous. But Memphis has shown they can grind out possessions and make opponents work for every basket. In their win over San Antonio, they held Victor Wembanyama to 30 points but limited everyone else, forcing the Spurs into contested shots late. That’s the blueprint here — make Phoenix work through their offense and capitalize on any defensive breakdowns.
I keep coming back to this efficiency gap: Phoenix is 9-10 on the road, which means their offensive efficiency drops significantly away from home. Memphis is 8-9 at FedExForum, which means they’re competitive enough to stay within single digits most nights. When you do the math over 95-98 possessions, a 4.5-point margin requires Phoenix to be significantly more efficient than their road numbers suggest. That’s a tough ask against a Memphis team that’s proven it can execute in close games.
The main risk here is if Ja Morant plays. If he suits up, Memphis’s offensive ceiling rises dramatically, and the game could turn into a higher-scoring affair that favors Phoenix’s firepower. But if Morant sits again, this becomes a grind-it-out game where Memphis’s home-court edge and defensive discipline keep them within the number.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
The Play: Memphis Grizzlies +4.5 (-110) | 2 Units
I’m backing Memphis to cover 4.5 points at home. Phoenix should win this game outright — they have the better roster and the superior record. But covering 4.5 on the road against a Memphis team that’s shown it can compete at FedExForum is a different challenge entirely. The Suns are 9-10 on the road, which tells me they struggle to maintain efficiency away from home. Memphis is 8-9 at home and just beat San Antonio without Morant, proving they can execute in tight situations.
The pace and efficiency dynamics favor Memphis keeping this close. If Morant sits again, Spencer and Williams will control tempo and force Phoenix into half-court sets where the Suns have been less effective. Even if Morant plays, he’s dealing with a calf issue that could limit his explosiveness, which narrows Phoenix’s efficiency advantage. I’ve accounted for the home court — and it still doesn’t get Phoenix to a comfortable cover.
The main risk is Phoenix’s offensive firepower. Booker and Brooks can get hot and push this margin beyond 4.5 if Memphis can’t contain them in transition. But I trust Memphis’s home defense and their ability to grind out possessions to keep this within a single possession. Take the Grizzlies plus the points.
