The New Orleans Pelicans visit Atlanta as 10.5-point underdogs, looking to snap an eight-game losing streak. Bryan Bash breaks down why Trey Murphy III’s recent 42-point explosion makes the Pelicans a dangerous dog against a Hawks team missing Trae Young.
The Setup: Pelicans at Hawks
The Hawks are laying 10.5 points at home against a Pelicans squad that’s limped to an 8-30 record, and on the surface, this number makes sense. New Orleans is 2-13 on the road, coming off a back-to-back, and missing key rotation pieces. Atlanta sits at 17-21 and should have every advantage at State Farm Arena. But here’s the thing — when you start peeling back the layers on this matchup, that double-digit spread starts to feel stretched. The Hawks are 6-11 at home this season, which isn’t exactly fortress territory, and they’re dealing with their own injury concerns that directly impact their ability to control pace and generate efficient offense. Let me walk you through why this line exists and why I’m not convinced Atlanta can cover it comfortably.
The market sees a bottom-feeder road team on a back-to-back and assumes blowout potential. I see a Hawks team that’s been inconsistent at home facing a Pelicans squad that still has offensive firepower in Zion Williamson and Trey Murphy III. Once you dig into the matchup data and consider how these teams actually generate their points, this margin starts to narrow more than the line suggests.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: January 7, 2026, 7:30 ET
Venue: State Farm Arena
Spread: Atlanta Hawks -10.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Hawks -476 / Pelicans +343
Total: 245.5 (Over/Under -110)
Why This Line Exists
The spread sits at 10.5 because the market is weighing New Orleans’ 8-30 record and brutal 2-13 road performance against Atlanta’s home court. The Pelicans just dropped a game to the Lakers 111-103 on Tuesday night, marking another loss in what’s been a disastrous season. They’re now facing the second leg of a back-to-back, which historically crushes efficiency and defensive intensity. Saddiq Bey is out for a third straight game, and Herbert Jones’ status remains questionable after just returning from a seven-game absence. That’s legitimate roster depletion.
But the Hawks aren’t exactly rolling either. They’re 6-11 at home, which means they’ve lost nearly twice as many games as they’ve won at State Farm Arena. More importantly, Trae Young is out for what would be a sixth straight game, and while Nickeil Alexander-Walker has stepped up admirably — averaging 20.5 points per game this season — he’s not the same offensive engine. Young’s absence fundamentally changes how Atlanta generates offense and controls tempo. Without their primary ball-handler and pick-and-roll maestro, the Hawks become more reliant on Jalen Johnson’s playmaking and secondary creation.
The total of 245.5 suggests the market expects a high-scoring affair, which tracks with both teams’ profiles when healthy. But I keep coming back to this efficiency gap: can the Hawks consistently execute without Young against a Pelicans team that still has legitimate scoring threats? That’s where this line gets interesting.
New Orleans Pelicans Breakdown: What You Need to Know
The Pelicans are a mess by record standards, but they’re not devoid of talent. Zion Williamson is still averaging 22.5 points per game, and Trey Murphy III has emerged as a legitimate second option at 21.3 points and 6.1 rebounds per game. That’s not just a stat — it’s how this game tilts when you consider Atlanta’s perimeter defense without Young’s ability to pressure opposing guards and force rotations.
The concern is depth and consistency. Jordan Poole adds 15.8 points per game, but the Pelicans rank 15th in the Eastern Conference for a reason. They struggle to defend consistently, and on a back-to-back, that defensive intensity typically craters even further. Herbert Jones, if he plays, is their best perimeter defender, but he showed rust in his return Tuesday and logged heavy minutes. Asking him to be fully effective on zero rest is a stretch.
The Pelicans’ road struggles are real — 2-13 doesn’t lie. But they’ve shown flashes of offensive competence when Zion and Murphy get rolling. If they can push pace and attack Atlanta’s interior, they have the personnel to keep this game closer than 10.5 points suggests.
Atlanta Hawks Breakdown: The Other Side
The Hawks are built around Jalen Johnson’s versatility and Trae Young’s offensive orchestration. Without Young, they’re leaning heavily on Johnson, who’s been spectacular this season at 23.7 points, 10.4 rebounds, and 8.4 assists per game. That’s borderline All-Star production, and he’s the reason Atlanta remains competitive. Alexander-Walker has filled in admirably in Young’s absence, averaging 20.5 points, but the offensive flow isn’t the same.
Here’s the thing — the Hawks are 6-11 at home, which means they’ve struggled to defend their own court consistently. They’re 11-10 on the road, which is actually better than their home performance. That’s a red flag when you’re laying double digits. The absence of Young impacts their ability to control pace and generate efficient half-court offense, which is critical against a Pelicans team that can score in spurts.
Atlanta’s defensive profile without Young also shifts. They lose his ability to pressure ball-handlers and generate deflections, which means New Orleans’ guards should have cleaner looks in transition. When you factor in that the Hawks haven’t been dominant at home and are missing their primary offensive engine, covering 10.5 becomes a taller task than the record differential suggests.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game gets decided in the transition battle and how effectively Atlanta can control pace without Trae Young. The Pelicans need to push tempo and attack in the open court, where Zion and Murphy can exploit Atlanta’s perimeter defense. If New Orleans can generate 12-15 transition opportunities, they have the athletes to convert efficiently and keep this game within striking distance.
The Hawks need Jalen Johnson to dominate as a playmaker and scorer. He’s averaging 8.4 assists per game, which means he’s capable of running the offense, but asking him to carry that load for 36-40 minutes against a desperate Pelicans team on national TV is a different challenge. Alexander-Walker needs to stay aggressive and efficient, but the main risk here is Atlanta’s half-court execution. Without Young’s pick-and-roll gravity, they become more predictable.
Defensively, the Hawks should have an advantage, but the Pelicans’ offensive firepower with Zion and Murphy can’t be ignored. If Herbert Jones plays and provides even 70% of his defensive impact, New Orleans can make life difficult for Atlanta’s secondary creators. When you do the math over 96-100 possessions, the Hawks need to be significantly more efficient to cover this spread, and I’m not convinced they have the offensive consistency without Young.
The total of 245.5 feels high given both teams’ injury situations and the Pelicans playing on zero rest. I’d expect a game in the 230-240 range unless both teams get hot from three, which is always possible but not the likeliest outcome.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m taking Pelicans +10.5 (-110) for 1.5 units. I’ve accounted for the back-to-back, the road struggles, and the roster depletion — and it still doesn’t get there. The Hawks are 6-11 at home and missing Trae Young, which fundamentally changes their offensive ceiling. New Orleans has enough scoring punch with Zion and Murphy to keep this game within two possessions, especially if they can push pace and attack Atlanta’s perimeter.
The main risk here is fatigue. If the Pelicans come out flat and can’t generate transition opportunities, Atlanta could pull away in the second half. But at 10.5, I’m betting on New Orleans’ offensive talent to keep them competitive deep into the fourth quarter. This matchup narrows the margin more than the line suggests, and I’ll gladly take the points with a team that still has legitimate NBA scoring options.
Give me the Pelicans plus the points. Let’s cash.
