The market is laying a healthy number with a Heat team that has been a reliable cover machine on the road this season. Handicapper Bryan Bash explores why the Bulls’ lack of playmaking makes Miami the lock in this free pick.
The Setup: Heat at Bulls
The Heat are laying 7.5 points on the road in Chicago, and on the surface, this number makes sense. Miami comes in at 20-17, riding a respectable season despite some recent turbulence, while the Bulls sit at 17-20 and just lost their primary playmaker. But here’s the thing — when you’re getting a full touchdown on the road against a team that’s been competitive at home (10-9), you need to understand exactly where that margin comes from and whether it holds up under scrutiny.
Let me walk you through why this line exists. The Bulls are missing Josh Giddey, their 19.2 PPG, 8.9 RPG, 9.0 APG floor general who’s expected to miss at least a few weeks with a hamstring strain. That’s not just a scoring loss — that’s their entire offensive engine. Meanwhile, Miami is dealing with their own rotation issues. Terry Rozier is out indefinitely due to an FBI sports betting probe, and Jaime Jaquez Jr. remains questionable with an ankle sprain after missing back-to-back games. The difference? Miami has Norman Powell averaging 24.3 PPG and Tyler Herro at 22.3 PPG to absorb the load. Chicago doesn’t have that same depth chart luxury.
The thesis here is straightforward: Miami’s offensive firepower should overwhelm a Bulls team that’s scrambling to replace their primary creator. But once you dig into the matchup data and consider how Chicago has defended at home, that 7.5-point margin starts to feel stretched. This is about whether Miami can maintain efficiency without their full complement of weapons against a Bulls squad that’s proven scrappy in the United Center.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: January 8, 2026, 8:00 ET
Venue: United Center
Spread: Heat -7.5 (-110) / Bulls +7.5 (-110)
Total: 240.5 (Over/Under -110)
Moneyline: Heat -252 / Bulls +200
Why This Line Exists
The market is telling you that losing Josh Giddey is worth about 5-6 points of value, and Miami’s road advantage accounts for the rest. I get it. Giddey was facilitating nearly everything for Chicago — 9.0 assists per game means he’s touching the ball on roughly 40% of Chicago’s made baskets when he’s on the floor. Without him, you’re asking Coby White (4.6 APG) and a combination of Tre Jones, Ayo Dosunmu, and Jevon Carter to replicate that creation. That’s a significant downgrade in playmaking continuity.
But the line also assumes Miami can execute at full efficiency on the road, where they’re 7-11 this season. That’s a sub-.400 road record for a team being asked to cover nearly eight points. Norman Powell has been excellent at 24.3 PPG, and Tyler Herro adds 22.3 PPG alongside Bam Adebayo’s 16.9 PPG and 9.6 RPG. That’s a legitimate three-headed scoring attack. The problem is usage distribution — with Rozier out and Jaquez questionable, Miami is running a tighter rotation, and that can create efficiency dips late in games when legs get heavy.
The total sitting at 240.5 suggests the market expects a relatively high-scoring affair, which makes sense given both teams’ offensive identities. But when you factor in Chicago’s rotation uncertainty and Miami’s road struggles, I keep coming back to whether this game plays faster or slower than the number implies. That pace dynamic is critical for whether the spread holds.
Miami Heat Breakdown: What You Need to Know
Miami is 20-17 overall but splits dramatically between home (13-6) and road (7-11). That’s not just a stat — it’s how this game tilts. The Heat are conference rank 8 in the East, which puts them squarely in the play-in conversation, and they need road wins like this to separate from the pack. Norman Powell has been the revelation, averaging 24.3 PPG and providing the perimeter scoring punch Miami desperately needed. Tyler Herro at 22.3 PPG gives them a second legitimate creator, and Bam Adebayo anchors everything with 16.9 PPG and 9.6 RPG.
The concern is depth. With Terry Rozier out indefinitely and Jaime Jaquez Jr. questionable (16.2 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 4.7 APG when healthy), Miami is asking their top three to carry heavier minutes. That’s manageable in spurts, but over a full 48 minutes on the road, fatigue becomes a real factor. Miami’s offensive efficiency depends on ball movement and creating open looks off penetration. Without Jaquez’s secondary playmaking, they become more predictable in half-court sets.
Defensively, Adebayo is still one of the best rim protectors in the league, but Miami struggles against teams that can spread the floor and attack in transition. Chicago doesn’t have the personnel to exploit that without Giddey, but Coby White and Nikola Vucevic can still punish switching defenses if Miami gets loose with rotations.
Chicago Bulls Breakdown: The Other Side
The Bulls are 17-20 and sitting 10th in the East, but they’ve been competitive at home with a 10-9 record at the United Center. That home split matters when you’re catching 7.5 points. Josh Giddey’s absence is massive — 19.2 PPG, 8.9 RPG, 9.0 APG — but Chicago still has pieces. Coby White is averaging 18.4 PPG and 4.6 APG, and Nikola Vucevic provides 16.5 PPG and 9.3 RPG from the center position. That’s a legitimate inside-out threat if Chicago can establish Vucevic early.
The problem is creation. Without Giddey, Chicago loses their primary pick-and-roll operator and transition facilitator. Tre Jones and Ayo Dosunmu will see increased minutes, but neither has Giddey’s size or vision. That means more isolation basketball for White and Vucevic, which plays directly into Miami’s defensive strengths. Chicago also has Jalen Smith out with a concussion and Zach Collins sidelined, which thins their frontcourt depth behind Vucevic.
Here’s the thing — Chicago’s home record suggests they defend well in familiar surroundings. They’re not getting blown out at the United Center. The question is whether they can generate enough offense without their primary creator to stay within striking distance. If Vucevic can dominate the paint and White gets hot from three, this becomes a grind-it-out game that stays close late.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game comes down to Miami’s ability to maintain offensive efficiency without their full rotation against a Bulls team that will pack the paint and force perimeter decisions. The Heat’s strength is their three-headed scoring attack with Powell, Herro, and Adebayo, but Chicago can load up on those guys and dare Miami’s role players to beat them. Without Jaquez’s playmaking, Miami becomes more predictable in half-court sets, which allows Chicago to be more aggressive with help defense.
The pace will be critical. If Chicago can slow this game down and make it a grind-it-out affair with Vucevic posting up and White hunting catch-and-shoot threes, they can keep possessions limited and stay within the number. Miami wants to push tempo and create transition opportunities where their athleticism advantage shows up. But on the road without a full rotation, pushing pace for 48 minutes is difficult.
I keep coming back to this efficiency gap: Miami is 7-11 on the road, and Chicago is 10-9 at home. That’s a four-game swing in winning percentage based purely on location. When you do that math over a full season, it suggests Chicago plays roughly 6-7 points better at home than Miami does on the road. That matchup narrows the margin more than the line suggests.
The main risk here is Miami’s star power simply overwhelming a depleted Bulls rotation. Powell and Herro can get hot and push this to double digits quickly. But if Chicago establishes Vucevic early, controls pace, and forces Miami into half-court execution, this stays within the number deep into the fourth quarter.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
The Play: Chicago Bulls +7.5 (-110) | 2 Units
I’ve accounted for Giddey’s absence, and it still doesn’t get Miami to 7.5 on the road. The Heat are 7-11 away from home, and while they have the superior talent, they’re missing key rotation pieces in Rozier and potentially Jaquez. Chicago has defended well at the United Center (10-9), and with Vucevic capable of controlling pace and White providing perimeter scoring, they have the pieces to keep this within a possession late.
Miami should win this game outright, but asking them to cover nearly eight points on the road without their full complement of weapons against a Bulls team that’s proven competitive at home feels like an overreach. The number exists because of Giddey’s absence, but the market is overvaluing that loss relative to Miami’s road struggles and rotation limitations.
Give me the Bulls +7.5 at home. This matchup narrows the margin more than the line suggests, and I expect a competitive game that stays within the number well into the fourth quarter. If Chicago can establish Vucevic and control pace, they cover comfortably. Even if Miami pulls away late, seven and a half points is enough cushion to survive.
