The Indiana Pacers arrive in Charlotte on a 13-game losing streak and without their star Tyrese Haliburton. Bryan Bash breaks down why the Hornets’ balanced scoring attack makes them the sharp best bet to cover the 4-point spread.
The Setup: Pacers at Hornets
The Charlotte Hornets are laying 4 points at home against the Indiana Pacers on Wednesday night at Spectrum Center, and on the surface, this number makes sense. You’ve got a 13-24 home team catching a 6-31 visiting squad that’s lost 13 straight games and sits dead last in the Eastern Conference. The Pacers are 1-16 on the road this season — that’s historically bad. Meanwhile, Charlotte sits at 7-11 at home, which isn’t great, but it’s functional enough when you’re facing a team this broken.
Here’s the thing — Indiana isn’t just losing games. They’re getting dismantled in ways that suggest structural problems beyond just talent. They just fell to Cleveland at home 120-116, their 13th consecutive loss, and the concerning part wasn’t just the result. It’s how they’re losing: late-game execution failures, defensive breakdowns in crunch time, and an inability to close possessions. That’s not variance. That’s a team that doesn’t trust its system right now.
Charlotte just took a tough buzzer-beater loss to Toronto 97-96, blowing a 10-point fourth-quarter lead. That stings, but the Hornets have LaMelo Ball, Brandon Miller, and Miles Bridges — three guys averaging between 19.5 and 20.1 points per game who can create their own offense. The question isn’t whether Charlotte should be favored. It’s whether 4 points is enough to account for how this matchup actually plays out over 48 minutes.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: January 8, 2026, 7:00 ET
Venue: Spectrum Center
Spread: Charlotte Hornets -4.0 (-110) | Indiana Pacers +4.0 (-110)
Moneyline: Hornets -169 | Pacers +137
Total: Over/Under 232.5 (-110)
Why This Line Exists
Let me walk you through why this line exists at Hornets -4. The market is giving Charlotte a modest home edge against the worst road team in the NBA, but it’s not going overboard because the Hornets themselves are just 7-11 at Spectrum Center. That home court advantage isn’t worth the usual 3-4 points you’d expect from a quality team. Charlotte has been inconsistent, and the recent loss to Toronto — where they couldn’t protect a double-digit lead — reinforces that they’re not a team you can trust to blow anyone out.
But here’s where the context matters: Indiana is 1-16 on the road and riding a 13-game losing streak. They’re missing Bennedict Mathurin (17.8 PPG), Obi Toppin, and Isaiah Jackson — three rotation pieces that would normally help with depth and scoring punch. Pascal Siakam is averaging 23.7 points per game and trying to carry this team, but he’s getting minimal help. Andrew Nembhard (17.2 PPG, 7.0 APG) is the only other reliable creator, and that’s not nearly enough firepower to keep pace with a team that has three players who can score 20 on any given night.
The total sitting at 232.5 suggests the market expects a relatively high-scoring game, which makes sense given both teams’ defensive limitations. Charlotte has been leaky on defense all season, and Indiana’s 6-31 record tells you they’re not stopping anyone consistently either. The line is essentially saying: Charlotte should win, but don’t expect a blowout because they’re not built that way.
Pacers Breakdown: What You Need to Know
Indiana is in full survival mode right now. Pascal Siakam is putting up 23.7 points per game with 6.6 rebounds and 3.8 assists, and he’s been their only consistent offensive weapon. The problem is he’s doing it in isolation far too often because the supporting cast is either injured or inconsistent. Bennedict Mathurin’s absence (17.8 PPG) removes their second-best scorer, and Obi Toppin being out until at least February 1st means their frontcourt depth is razor-thin.
Andrew Nembhard has stepped up as a facilitator, averaging 7.0 assists per game, but his 17.2 points per game scoring isn’t enough to compensate for what they’re missing. That’s not just a stat — it’s how this game tilts. When you lose your second and third scoring options, your offensive efficiency craters because defenses can load up on your primary creator. Indiana is getting predictable, and that 1-16 road record reflects how poorly they execute away from home.
Defensively, the Pacers are getting torched in transition and struggling to protect the rim with Isaiah Jackson sidelined. Jay Huff and Micah Potter are filling minutes, but neither provides the rim protection or rebounding presence this team desperately needs. When you’re already losing 13 straight, those marginal downgrades in talent compound quickly.
Hornets Breakdown: The Other Side
Charlotte has three legitimate scoring threats in Brandon Miller (20.1 PPG), Miles Bridges (19.9 PPG), and LaMelo Ball (19.5 PPG, 7.9 APG). That’s a balanced offensive attack that can punish teams in multiple ways. Ball is the engine — his 7.9 assists per game create open looks for Miller and Bridges, and when defenses collapse, all three can create their own shot. That versatility matters against a depleted Indiana defense that’s already struggling to contain anyone.
The Hornets’ issue isn’t talent; it’s consistency. They just blew a 10-point fourth-quarter lead to Toronto and lost on a buzzer-beater. That kind of collapse happens when your defense can’t get stops down the stretch and your execution falters under pressure. Charlotte is 7-11 at home because they’ve lost games they should have won, but here’s the thing — Indiana isn’t the type of team that makes you pay for mistakes right now. The Pacers are 1-16 on the road and don’t have the firepower to capitalize when opponents slip up.
Charlotte’s frontcourt is thin with Mason Plumlee and Ryan Kalkbrenner both out, but Moussa Diabate and PJ Hall have been serviceable. Against an Indiana team missing Toppin and Jackson, that matchup feels relatively even, which means the game will be decided by perimeter play and shot-making — areas where Charlotte has a clear advantage with Ball, Miller, and Bridges.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
Once you dig into the matchup data, this game comes down to shot creation and defensive execution. Charlotte has three players who can generate offense independently, while Indiana is relying almost entirely on Pascal Siakam and Andrew Nembhard. That imbalance becomes glaring over the course of 48 minutes. When you do the math over roughly 96-100 possessions, Charlotte’s ability to get clean looks from multiple sources should create a meaningful efficiency gap.
Indiana’s 1-16 road record isn’t just about talent — it’s about how they collapse in hostile environments. They’ve lost 13 straight games, and the pattern is consistent: they hang around for stretches, then fall apart when the opponent makes a run. Charlotte doesn’t need to be perfect to exploit that. They just need to execute in the third and fourth quarters when Indiana’s depth and morale start to crack.
The pace of this game favors Charlotte. Both teams want to push tempo, but the Hornets have more weapons to finish in transition. LaMelo Ball’s 7.9 assists per game suggest he’s finding open teammates in the open floor, and with Miller and Bridges running the wings, Charlotte should generate easy baskets before Indiana’s defense can set. That’s not just a stat — it’s how this game tilts.
I keep coming back to this efficiency gap: Charlotte has three 20-point scorers, Indiana has one. The Pacers are missing their second and third scoring options, and they’re playing on the road where they’ve won once all season. The main risk here is Charlotte’s recent inconsistency and their inability to close games, but Indiana isn’t built to take advantage of that right now. They’re too shorthanded and too demoralized from 13 straight losses.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
The Play: Charlotte Hornets -4 (-110) | 2 Units
I’ve accounted for the home court — and it still doesn’t get there for Indiana. The Pacers are 1-16 on the road, missing Bennedict Mathurin and Obi Toppin, and riding a 13-game losing streak. Pascal Siakam is doing everything he can, but 23.7 points per game from one player isn’t enough when you’re facing a team with three legitimate scorers. Charlotte has the firepower, the matchup advantage, and the situational edge playing at home against a broken opponent.
The main risk here is Charlotte’s tendency to let teams hang around — they just blew a 10-point lead to Toronto. But Indiana doesn’t have the depth or execution to capitalize on those mistakes right now. When you factor in how this matchup actually plays out over 48 minutes, Charlotte should win by 6-8 points. That gives us cushion on the 4-point spread.
Hornets -4. Lock it in.
