The Knicks head to Phoenix as 1.5-point favorites, and with Josh Hart’s status uncertain, our ATS pick evaluates if New York’s elite offense can overcome their season-long road struggles at the Mortgage Matchup Center.
The Setup: Knicks at Suns
The Knicks are getting 1.5 points in Phoenix on Friday night, and on the surface, this number makes sense. New York sits at 24-13 with the second seed in the East, while Phoenix checks in at 22-15 as the seventh seed out West. But here’s the thing — this line isn’t about overall records. It’s about context, and the context here screams that the market knows something critical: the Knicks are a completely different team on the road.
Let me walk you through why this line exists. New York is 16-4 at home but just 7-9 on the road. That’s a nine-game swing in winning percentage based purely on venue. Phoenix, meanwhile, sits at 12-5 at home and 10-10 on the road — not dominant, but competent in their own building. The Suns just dismantled Memphis 117-98 on Wednesday, with Dillon Brooks and Grayson Allen combining for 40 points. The Knicks snapped a four-game skid with a 123-111 win over the Clippers, getting 26 from Jalen Brunson and 20-11-7 from Karl-Anthony Towns. Both teams are coming off wins, but only one is playing where they’re comfortable.
My thesis is simple: this spread undersells Phoenix’s home-court advantage against a Knicks team that hasn’t proven it can win consistently away from Madison Square Garden. The market is giving New York credit for its overall talent, but once you dig into the matchup data and venue splits, that 1.5-point cushion feels more like a trap than a gift.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: January 9, 2026, 9:00 ET
Venue: Mortgage Matchup Center
Spread: Knicks +1.5 (-110) | Suns -1.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Knicks -125 | Suns +102
Total: Over/Under 229.5 (-110)
Why This Line Exists
The market is essentially calling this a pick’em with a slight lean toward Phoenix based on venue. That 1.5-point spread tells you everything: oddsmakers respect New York’s talent but don’t trust them to execute in a hostile environment against a Suns team that defends its home court.
Look at the moneyline structure. The Knicks are -125 favorites on the ML despite getting points on the spread. That’s unusual, and it signals that the market expects a tight game with New York’s superior talent giving them a slight edge in a coin-flip scenario. But the spread at +1.5 suggests that when Phoenix wins, they win by more than a possession. The Suns at +102 on the moneyline is essentially even money, which means this game is being priced as a true toss-up with home court as the tiebreaker.
The total at 229.5 is elevated, and that makes sense when you consider the offensive firepower on both sides. Brunson is averaging 29.1 points per game, Booker sits at 25.4 PPG, and both teams have multiple secondary scorers who can get hot. Towns is putting up 21.4 PPG and 11.4 RPG, while Brooks has emerged as a legitimate second option at 21.2 PPG. This isn’t a defensive slugfest — it’s a game where both offenses should have opportunities to score, and the market is pricing that in.
Knicks Breakdown: What You Need to Know
The Knicks are built around Brunson’s pick-and-roll mastery and Towns’ ability to stretch the floor. Brunson’s 29.1 PPG leads the team, and his 6.3 assists per game keep the offense humming. Towns gives them a legitimate inside-out threat, and Mikal Bridges at 16.0 PPG provides a versatile wing who can defend and score in transition.
But here’s where the cracks show: that 7-9 road record isn’t a fluke. Without Josh Hart — who’s been out since December 25 with a sprained ankle — the Knicks lose a critical piece of their defensive identity and secondary playmaking. Hart’s absence forces Miles McBride and Jordan Clarkson into expanded roles, and while McBride has been serviceable, he’s not the same level of two-way contributor. Landry Shamet hasn’t played since November 22, which further thins their backcourt depth.
The main concern is how New York’s offense translates on the road. At home, they control pace and dictate terms. On the road, they’re more reactive, and that plays into the hands of a Suns team that thrives on transition opportunities and perimeter shooting.
Suns Breakdown: The Other Side
Phoenix is getting contributions from unexpected places this season. Brooks at 21.2 PPG has been a revelation, giving them a legitimate second scorer alongside Booker. Grayson Allen’s 15.7 PPG and 4.1 APG provide floor spacing and playmaking, and his 19 points in Wednesday’s win over Memphis showed he’s comfortable in this role.
The Suns’ 12-5 home record is built on controlling tempo and capitalizing on opponent mistakes. They don’t have a dominant defense, but they don’t need one when Booker and Brooks are clicking offensively. Booker’s 6.3 assists per game match Brunson’s, which means Phoenix can run offense through multiple initiators and keep defenses off balance.
The injury situation is manageable. Jamaree Bouyea and Jalen Green are out, but neither plays significant rotation minutes. Phoenix’s core is healthy, and they’re coming off a statement win where they built an early lead and never looked back. That’s the kind of momentum that matters in a tight spread game.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game gets decided on the margins — literally. When you’re looking at a 1.5-point spread, you’re talking about one or two possessions over the course of 48 minutes. The question is which team can execute in crunch time, and the venue split data tells me Phoenix has the edge.
I keep coming back to this efficiency gap: the Knicks are elite at home because they control pace and get Towns involved early. On the road, they’re more tentative, and that hesitation allows teams like Phoenix to dictate terms. The Suns don’t need to blow out New York — they just need to stay within striking distance and capitalize late.
The total at 229.5 suggests both offenses will get theirs, but that’s not just a stat — it’s how this game tilts. If both teams are scoring efficiently, the deciding factor becomes who gets the last stop or the last bucket. Phoenix at home, with Booker and Brooks both capable of creating their own shot, has the advantage in that scenario.
The main risk here is that Brunson goes nuclear and drags the Knicks to a road win on sheer individual brilliance. He’s capable of 35-point nights where he controls every possession down the stretch. But even accounting for that possibility, I trust Phoenix’s home-court execution more than New York’s road resilience.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m taking Phoenix Suns -1.5 (-110) for 2 units.
This matchup narrows the margin more than the line suggests — except the margin favors Phoenix, not New York. The Knicks’ 7-9 road record isn’t some scheduling quirk; it’s a pattern of underperformance away from home. The Suns are 12-5 in this building, and they just put together a complete performance against Memphis. I’ve accounted for the home court — and it still doesn’t get there for the Knicks.
The main risk is Brunson taking over late, but even then, Phoenix has the personnel to make him work for every bucket. Brooks can defend, Allen can space the floor, and Booker can match Brunson shot-for-shot if it comes down to a scoring duel.
When you do the math over 96 possessions, the team that executes better in their comfort zone wins. That’s Phoenix. Lay the short number and trust the home team to defend its floor.
The Play: Suns -1.5 (-110) | 2 Units
