The Minnesota Golden Gophers host USC as 3.5-point favorites at Williams Arena, and with our expert ATS pick, we evaluate if the Trojans’ high-octane offense can bounce back from back-to-back Big Ten blowouts.
The Setup: USC at Minnesota
Minnesota is laying 4 to 4.5 points (Bovada) at home against USC, and on the surface, this looks like a classic toss-up Big Ten matchup. But here’s the thing – when you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com efficiency numbers, this line is telling us a very specific story about what the market thinks will happen when a high-powered offense meets Williams Arena’s home cooking. USC comes in at 8-1 with an adjusted offensive efficiency ranked 28th nationally, putting up 89 points per game. Minnesota sits at 5-4 with significantly less firepower but a respectable defensive profile. The Trojans just got smacked around in back-to-back road games at Michigan State and Michigan, losing by a combined 59 points. Now they’re making another Big Ten road trip, and the market is saying that USC’s offensive firepower won’t be enough to overcome Minnesota’s home court and defensive intensity. Let me walk you through why I think this line is actually a couple points off.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game: USC @ Minnesota
Date: January 9, 2026
Time: 8:30 PM ET
Venue: Williams Arena, Minneapolis, MN
Spread: Minnesota -4 to -4.5
Total: 145.5
Moneyline: Minnesota -130, USC +110
Why This Number Makes Sense (or Doesn’t)
Here’s why this line exists: Minnesota’s adjusted defensive efficiency ranks 105th nationally according to collegebasketballdata.com, while their adjusted offensive efficiency sits at 195th. USC’s adjusted offensive efficiency at 28th is elite territory, but their adjusted defensive efficiency at 137th is concerning. The net efficiency gap shows USC at plus-13.1 (52nd nationally) versus Minnesota at plus-2.3 (144th). That’s an 10.8-point gap in adjusted net efficiency, which in a neutral setting would suggest USC should be favored by around 8-10 points.
So why is Minnesota laying points? The market is banking heavily on home court advantage and USC’s brutal recent road performance. The Trojans got destroyed 80-51 at Michigan State and 96-66 at Michigan – that’s an average margin of defeat of nearly 30 points in hostile Big Ten environments. But here’s what the numbers aren’t capturing: those were against teams with adjusted defensive efficiencies of 85.5 and 92.3. Minnesota’s adjusted defensive efficiency of 104.3 ranks 105th nationally. That’s not just a different tier – it’s a completely different stratosphere of defensive capability.
The pace factor also matters here. USC operates at 69.6 possessions per game (143rd nationally), while Minnesota crawls at 63.9 possessions (313th). Minnesota wants to grind this game into the mud and limit possessions. That typically helps home underdogs, but when you’ve got an efficiency gap this massive, fewer possessions might actually hurt the Gophers. Do that math over 67 possessions at the efficiency differentials we’re seeing, and USC should still be generating a 6-8 point advantage even in a slower game.
USC’s Situation
The Trojans are an offensive juggernaut led by Chad Baker-Mazara, who’s scoring 20.9 points per game (18th nationally), and Rodney Rice, who’s putting up 20.3 points and 6.0 assists (24th nationally in assists). That’s elite shot creation from two different positions. USC’s three-point shooting sits at 37.8% (36th nationally), and their offensive rating of 119.4 ranks 79th. When you combine that with their adjusted offensive efficiency at 28th, you’re looking at a team that can score against almost anyone.
The problem? Defense. USC allows 78.2 points per game, which ranks 278th nationally. Their defensive rating of 105.2 ranks 171st. They’re 5th nationally in blocks per game at 6.6, which suggests rim protection, but their perimeter defense gets torched – opponents shoot 29.4% from three (59th in opponent three-point percentage), which is actually solid. The real issue is overall defensive consistency. Those two road losses exposed USC’s inability to defend when the environment gets hostile and physical.
Coming off those beatings, there are legitimate questions about USC’s mental state. But they responded by demolishing UC Santa Cruz 102-63 and UTSA 97-70. The offensive firepower never disappeared – it was the defensive breakdowns in elite road environments that killed them.
Minnesota’s Situation
The Gophers are riding a five-game winning streak, but let’s add context: four of those wins came against Fairleigh Dickinson, Campbell, Texas Southern, and a struggling Northwestern team. The one quality win was a 70-67 squeaker against Iowa at home. Minnesota’s adjusted offensive efficiency at 195th nationally tells you everything – they struggle to score, averaging just 73.4 points per game (274th).
Cade Tyson is the offensive engine, scoring 21.8 points per game (5th nationally), but after him, the drop-off is steep. Jaylen Crocker-Johnson adds 12.2 points and 8.9 rebounds (49th nationally in rebounding), but Minnesota’s three-point shooting at 31.7% ranks 251st nationally. That’s a massive problem against a USC team that ranks 59th in opponent three-point percentage defense. Minnesota’s best offensive weapon is being neutralized by USC’s best defensive characteristic.
Minnesota’s strength is defensive consistency. Their defensive rating of 102.0 ranks 123rd, and they hold opponents to 67.9 points per game (72nd nationally). Williams Arena provides a genuine home court advantage, and Minnesota’s deliberate pace (313th nationally at 63.9 possessions) helps them control tempo. But here’s the thing – controlling tempo only matters if you can execute offensively in the halfcourt, and Minnesota’s offensive efficiency numbers suggest they’ll struggle to score in the mid-70s against even USC’s mediocre defense.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game lives and dies on whether Minnesota can slow USC below 80 points. If the Trojans score 85-plus, Minnesota has no realistic path to covering a 4-point spread given their offensive limitations. USC’s adjusted offensive efficiency advantage of 12.4 points (118.9 vs 106.5) is just too massive when you’re talking about a team that ranks 28th nationally versus one that ranks 195th.
The three-point shooting matchup seals it for me. USC shoots 37.8% from three (36th) while Minnesota allows 37.2% (330th in opponent three-point defense). Minnesota shoots just 31.7% from three (251st) against a USC defense that ranks 59th in opponent three-point percentage. That’s a double-edged sword cutting entirely in USC’s favor. Over 67 possessions, if USC attempts 22-24 threes at their normal rate and hits 38%, that’s 8-9 makes for 24-27 points from deep. If Minnesota attempts 18-20 threes and hits 32%, that’s 6 makes for 18 points. That’s a 6-9 point swing from three-point shooting alone.
I keep coming back to those adjusted efficiency numbers because they’re just too extreme to ignore. USC ranks 52nd nationally in adjusted net efficiency. Minnesota ranks 144th. That’s a 92-spot gap in overall team quality when you adjust for strength of schedule. Home court is worth 3-4 points, maybe 5 in a venue like Williams Arena. But you’re asking me to believe it’s worth 10-12 points based on two road blowouts against elite defensive teams? I’m not buying it.
My Play
The Pick: USC +4.5 for 2 units
I’m taking the Trojans as road underdogs, and I feel good about it. The efficiency gap is too wide, the matchup advantages are too clear, and the market is overreacting to USC’s recent road struggles against vastly superior defensive teams. Minnesota’s offense simply doesn’t have the firepower to pull away from a team that scores like USC does. I’m projecting USC 82, Minnesota 78, which makes this a push at 4 and a winner at 4.5.
The main risk here is if Williams Arena’s atmosphere rattles USC’s perimeter shooters and we see another defensive meltdown. But Minnesota isn’t Michigan State or Michigan defensively – not even close. USC’s offensive talent should shine through in a slower-paced game where every possession matters. The Gophers will make this competitive, but they won’t cover.
Final Score Prediction: USC 82, Minnesota 78
