Oregon vs. Indiana College Football Playoff Semifinal Betting Analysis
No. 1 Indiana faces No. 5 Oregon in a Peach Bowl rematch with the Hoosiers as 3.5-point favorites; professional handicapper Rich Crew evaluates if Heisman winner Fernando Mendoza can duplicate his regular-season victory.
Market Read
When I look at this college matchup, the key factor is revenge dynamics meeting market uncertainty. Oregon opened as 3.5-point favorites across multiple books, sitting right on the crucial number of 3 in college football. The total opened at 49 and held steady at major outlets like BetOnline and Bodog, suggesting sharp consensus on scoring projection.
This is a moderate spread with a relatively low total – classic playoff setup where defenses tighten and possessions become premium. Oregon getting 3.5 points tells us the market respects Indiana’s October dominance but acknowledges neutral site dynamics. The Ducks’ path is simple: execute better than they did in Eugene and avoid the turnover disaster that sunk them last time.
Game Dashboard
Matchup: #5 Oregon vs. #1 Indiana
Date: Friday, January 9, 2026
Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Consensus Spread: Indiana -3.5 (-110 both sides)
Total: 49 (Over -110, Under -110)
Moneyline: Oregon +158, Indiana -181
Oregon Profile
The Ducks bring elite efficiency metrics despite that October stumble. Scoring 36.4 PPG (#11) while allowing just 15.3 PPG (#6) creates a +21.1 margin that screams elite team. The 6.7 yards per play (#5) shows explosive capability, though 3D conversion at 43.9% (#28) indicates drive sustainability issues.
Oregon’s strength lies in balanced attack – 5.4 YPC rushing (#11) paired with 72.8% completion rate (#2) from Dante Moore. The defense has been lockdown, holding opponents to 4.2 YPP (#5) and 153.4 passing yards per game (#2). Recent form shows resilience: shutout win over Texas Tech followed by dominant JMU victory suggests Dan Lanning has this team peaking at the right time.
Red flag: turnover margin sits at just +0.7 (#12), and they’re giving up 1.6 takeaways per game. Against Indiana’s ball-hawking defense, that’s concerning. Style-wise, Oregon runs 55.6% of plays but can air it out when needed. The 202.5 rushing yards per game (#17) will be tested against Indiana’s elite run defense.
Indiana Profile
The Hoosiers are the complete package – 39.2 PPG (#4) offense paired with suffocating defense allowing 11.1 PPG (#2). That +28.1 scoring margin is historically dominant. The efficiency numbers are staggering: 6.6 YPP (#8) on offense, just 4.5 YPP allowed (#10) on defense.
Fernando Mendoza’s Heisman campaign shows in the metrics – 70.8% completion (#4) with 9.4 YPA (#4). The ground game averages 5.2 YPC (#18) with 214.8 yards per game (#11), providing perfect balance. Defensively, they’re forcing 2.0 turnovers per game (#7) while giving up just 0.6 (#4) – that +1.4 margin leads the nation.
Third down mastery defines this team: 55.3% conversion rate (#1) on offense, 29.2% allowed (#4) on defense. Recent ATS: 5-2 last 7, suggesting they’ve been covering despite high expectations. The 89.8% red zone scoring rate (#24) shows they finish drives, crucial in playoff environment.
Head-to-Head Comparison
| Category | Oregon | Indiana | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Run Game | 5.4 YPC vs 3.4 allowed | 5.2 YPC vs 3.0 allowed | Slight Indiana |
| Pass Game | 8.8 YPA vs 5.3 allowed | 9.4 YPA vs 6.2 allowed | Indiana |
| Efficiency | 12.04 Yards/Point, +0.7 TO | 11.24 Yards/Point, +1.4 TO | Indiana |
| 3rd Down | 43.9% vs 29.2% allowed | 55.3% vs 35.9% allowed | Significant Indiana |
Matchup Breakdown
The trenches tell the story. Indiana’s run defense (76.4 YPG allowed, #3) against Oregon’s balanced attack creates the game’s primary lever. If the Ducks can’t establish ground game early, they become one-dimensional against a secondary allowing just 6.2 YPA.
Passing matchup favors Indiana significantly. Mendoza’s precision (70.8% completion) and explosiveness (9.4 YPA) versus Oregon’s secondary that’s been vulnerable to efficient passers. Oregon’s 49.9% completion allowed is misleading – good teams have found success through the air.
Drive sustainability becomes crucial. Oregon’s 43.9% 3rd down rate won’t cut it against Indiana’s 29.2% allowed. If Oregon can’t move the chains consistently, short fields will hand Indiana easy scoring opportunities. Red zone efficiency gap (82.0% Oregon vs 78.3% Indiana allowed) suggests scoring will come at premium.
Trends & Patterns
Oregon ATS: 6-4 last 10, 4-2 as road team. The Ducks are 2-4 O/U on the road, suggesting under tendency in big spots. Indiana ATS: 6-4 last 10, covering 5 of last 7 including playoff games.
Total trends point under – both teams 7-7 O/U on season with Oregon on Under 1 streak, Indiana on Under 2. Historical rematch data shows teams that lost first meeting cover 54% in immediate rematch, though sample size varies.
Advanced Metrics & Projection
Indiana’s efficiency advantage in every major category suggests they should be favored, but 3.5 seems light given their October dominance. Cover threshold analysis: if Indiana converts 45%+ on 3rd down and wins turnover battle by +1, cover probability jumps to 72%.
Possessions projection: 11-12 per team in playoff environment. Indiana’s superior drive efficiency (shorter yards per point) gives them edge in lower-possession game. Oregon needs 350+ total yards and +1 turnover margin to stay competitive.
Rich’s Recommendation
Primary Play: Indiana -3.5 (-110), playable to -4
The October blueprint remains valid – Indiana’s physical dominance up front neutralizes Oregon’s balanced attack. Mendoza’s third-down mastery (55.3%) against Oregon’s suspect 43.9% rate creates sustainable drive advantage. The Hoosiers’ +1.4 turnover margin versus Oregon’s pedestrian +0.7 suggests more short fields for Indiana.
Secondary Angle: Under 49, playable to 47
Both defenses have tightened in playoffs. Oregon’s shutout of Texas Tech, Indiana’s dominant Alabama performance suggest scoring will be at premium. College football playoff semifinal environment typically produces 6-8 fewer points than regular season averages.
Risk notes: Oregon’s revenge motivation and Dan Lanning’s big-game preparation could neutralize Indiana’s physical advantages. Turnovers and short fields are the swing factors – if Oregon protects the ball, they have the talent to keep this close.
