Siena enters Friday as a 5.5-point favorite; handicapper Bryan Bash explores why the Saints’ #10 ranked scoring defense makes them a sharp ATS pick against a Merrimack team struggling with shooting efficiency.
The Setup: Merrimack at Siena
Siena’s laying 5.5 to 6 points at home against Merrimack in a Friday night MAAC clash, and at first glance, this looks like a modest number for a 9-2 home team against a 5-6 visitor. Here’s the thing – when you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com efficiency numbers, this spread actually feels generous to the Warriors. Siena sits at #122 nationally in adjusted net efficiency with a +4.7 mark, while Merrimack checks in at #296 with a brutal -10.2. That’s a nearly 15-point efficiency gap, and we’re getting asked to lay just six. I’m backing Siena here, and let me walk you through exactly why this number is too low.
This is a classic MAAC conference matchup where tempo and defensive identity will dictate everything. Siena plays at a glacial 58.6 possessions per game (#357 nationally), while Merrimack operates at 66.1 (#265). The Saints will slow this down, play their pace, and suffocate a Merrimack offense that ranks #333 in offensive rating at just 99.6 points per 100 possessions.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game: Merrimack (5-6) at Siena (9-2)
Date: January 9, 2026
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Venue: MVP Arena, Albany, NY
Spread: Siena -5.5 (DraftKings) / -6 (Bovada)
Total: 135.5 (DraftKings) / 135 (Bovada)
Why This Number Makes Sense (or Doesn’t)
The efficiency data from collegebasketballdata.com tells a clear story here. Siena’s adjusted offensive efficiency sits at 107.5 (#176), while their adjusted defensive efficiency ranks #82 nationally at 102.9. That defensive number is the key – they’re holding teams to just 61.4 points per game (#10 in the country). Meanwhile, Merrimack’s offensive rating of 99.6 ranks #333, and their adjusted offensive efficiency of 101.4 (#288) shows this isn’t just a product of weak competition.
Here’s what jumps off the page: Merrimack shoots just 38.3% from the field (#356 nationally) and posts an effective field goal percentage of 45.9% (#345). That’s not just poor shooting – it’s why they score only 65.8 points per game (#347). Now match that against Siena’s defense that holds opponents to 43.3% shooting (#175) and just 28.9% from three (#47 in the nation). Do that math over 60 possessions at Siena’s pace, and you’re looking at Merrimack struggling to crack 60 points.
The spread is asking us to believe Siena wins by less than a possession per 10 possessions played. But when the home team has an offensive rating advantage of 20.9 points per 100 possessions (120.5 vs 99.6) and a defensive rating edge of 7.5 points, that’s a 28-point swing in efficiency. Over 60 possessions, that translates to roughly 17 points. I keep coming back to those efficiency numbers because they’re just too extreme to ignore.
Merrimack’s Situation
The Warriors come in with some momentum, winning four of their last five, including a quality road win at Sacred Heart. Kevair Kennedy and Ernest Shelton both average 14.8 points per game (#314 nationally), giving them a legitimate one-two scoring punch. They do take care of the basketball reasonably well, turning it over just 10.5 times per game (#60), and they get to the free throw line effectively, shooting 76.3% (#46).
But here’s where it falls apart: Merrimack ranks #364 in rebounds per game at just 27.7, and their 45.9% effective field goal percentage (#345) means they’re not making up for poor volume with efficiency. Their true shooting percentage of 51.3% (#329) confirms they struggle to score from anywhere on the floor. They shoot just 30.6% from three (#295), so Siena can pack the paint without fear of getting burned from deep.
The defensive numbers are equally concerning. They allow 74.0 points per game (#202) with a defensive rating of 111.8 (#271). Their opponents shoot 46.3% against them (#307), which is problematic against a Siena team that shoots 46.7% from the field (#121).
Siena’s Situation
The Saints are 9-2 with an identity built on defense and controlling tempo. That 58.6 pace (#357) is deliberate – they want to grind you down in the halfcourt. Justice Shoats runs the show at point guard, averaging 5.3 assists per game (#61 nationally), while Gavin Doty leads the scoring at 14.5 points with 5.8 rebounds. Tasman Goodrick provides interior presence with 7.8 rebounds per game (#105).
What makes Siena dangerous is their balance. They rank #68 nationally in offensive rating at 120.5, which is elite efficiency at their slow pace. They shoot 46.7% from the field (#121) and post a 51.2% effective field goal percentage (#211). Yes, they’re just #334 in three-point percentage at 29.0%, but they don’t rely on the three – they score 378 points in the paint compared to Merrimack’s 264.
Defensively, this is where Siena separates. That #10 ranking in opponent scoring (61.4 PPG) is backed by holding teams to 28.9% from three (#47) and 43.3% overall (#175). Their adjusted defensive efficiency of 102.9 (#82) shows it holds up against quality competition. At home in MVP Arena, they control the environment and dictate pace.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game lives and dies on Siena’s ability to impose their tempo and defensive will. Merrimack wants to push the pace to 66 possessions, but Siena will slow it to the high 50s. Over a 58-possession game, Merrimack’s offensive inefficiency becomes magnified – they simply don’t have the shooting to score in the halfcourt against this defense.
The rebounding matchup heavily favors Siena. They grab 34.5 boards per game (#265) compared to Merrimack’s 27.7 (#364). That’s a seven-rebound advantage, and in a low-possession game, second-chance opportunities become crucial. Siena’s 378 points in the paint versus Merrimack’s 264 tells you where this game will be won – in the painted area where Goodrick and Folefac can operate.
Here’s the matchup that seals it for me: Merrimack’s #345-ranked effective field goal percentage against Siena’s #175-ranked opponent field goal percentage defense. Merrimack already struggles to score efficiently, and now they’re facing a top-50 three-point defense on the road. The Saints will force them into contested twos all night, and at 38.3% shooting, that’s a recipe for a long offensive night.
The three-point battle is equally lopsided. Merrimack shoots 30.6% from deep (#295) while Siena holds opponents to 28.9% (#47). In a game where possessions are precious, Merrimack can’t afford to go cold from outside, but that’s exactly what’s likely to happen.
My Play
The Pick: Siena -6 for 2 units
I’m laying the six with Siena at home. The efficiency gap is simply too massive to ignore. We’re getting a team ranked #122 in adjusted net efficiency against #296, playing at home, at their preferred pace, with a defensive identity that directly attacks Merrimack’s biggest weakness – scoring the basketball. The math here is straightforward: Siena should win this by double digits.
The main risk here is if Merrimack gets hot from three early and forces Siena to play faster, but I’ve considered all of that, and the shooting percentages are still too extreme to ignore. Merrimack shoots 30.6% from three against a defense that holds teams to 28.9%. Those numbers don’t suggest variance – they suggest Merrimack’s going to struggle.
I’m projecting Siena 68, Merrimack 58. That covers the six comfortably and reflects both the efficiency gap and Siena’s tempo control. This is a spot where the home team is better, plays slower, and defends at an elite level against a poor offensive team. That’s exactly the recipe for a comfortable cover.
Siena -6. Lock it in.
