The market is giving Boston a slim edge at home, but is the TD Garden crowd enough to overcome a shorthanded roster? Bash dives into the handicapping data to see if the Spurs can exploit a Celtics rotation missing its primary superstar.
The Setup: Spurs at Celtics
The Celtics are laying 1.0 point at home against a Spurs team that’s currently sitting second in the Western Conference at 26-11. On the surface, this number makes sense — Boston’s at TD Garden, they’re 12-6 at home, and they just dropped 125 on Toronto. But here’s the thing: Jayson Tatum is out, and that’s not a minor detail when you’re trying to lay a point against Victor Wembanyama and a Spurs squad that just beat the Lakers behind Keldon Johnson’s 27 and Wemby’s 16-14 double-double.
Let me walk you through why this line exists and why I think the market is undervaluing what San Antonio brings to this matchup. Boston’s leaning heavily on Jaylen Brown — who’s averaging 29.6 points per game this season — along with Payton Pritchard and Derrick White to carry the offensive load. That’s a solid trio, no question. But when you factor in that the Spurs are 12-6 on the road and have the kind of defensive anchor in Wembanyama that can disrupt Boston’s rim pressure, this one-point spread starts to feel like it’s giving Boston credit for a roster strength they don’t currently have.
My thesis is simple: Without Tatum, Boston’s offensive efficiency takes a hit that the betting market hasn’t fully priced in. The Spurs have the defensive versatility and offensive balance to keep this game tight — and at a pick’em price, I’m taking the points with San Antonio.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game: San Antonio Spurs at Boston Celtics
Date: Saturday, January 10, 2026
Time: 8:00 PM ET
Venue: TD Garden
Current Betting Lines (MyBookie.ag):
- Spread: Boston Celtics -1.0 (-110) | San Antonio Spurs +1.0 (-110)
- Moneyline: Boston Celtics -112 | San Antonio Spurs -109
- Total: 230.0 (Over -110 | Under -110)
Why This Line Exists
The market opened Boston at -1.0, and I get why that number exists. The Celtics are at home, they’re 24-13 overall, and they just put up 125 points against Toronto with Payton Pritchard dropping 28 and Jaylen Brown adding 25. On paper, that’s a team firing on all cylinders offensively. Boston’s also 12-6 at TD Garden, which historically gives them a slight edge in tight matchups.
But once you dig into the matchup data, the absence of Tatum changes everything. Tatum’s been out, and while Boston has managed to stay competitive, they’re relying on a smaller offensive core. Brown is carrying a 29.6 PPG load, White is chipping in 18.4 PPG, and Pritchard has been excellent at 17.2 PPG. That’s three guys doing heavy lifting, but it’s not the same depth of scoring options they have when Tatum’s on the floor.
Meanwhile, San Antonio comes in with a more balanced attack. Wembanyama is averaging 24.2 points and 11.5 rebounds, De’Aaron Fox is putting up 21.0 PPG, and Stephon Castle is contributing 17.7 PPG with 6.9 assists. That’s three legitimate scoring threats, and with Keldon Johnson stepping up for 27 in their last game, the Spurs have the kind of offensive distribution that can exploit a Celtics defense that’s missing its top two-way player.
The line exists because Boston’s at home and the market respects their recent form. But I keep coming back to this efficiency gap — without Tatum, Boston’s margin for error shrinks, and the Spurs have the personnel to capitalize.
San Antonio Spurs Breakdown: What You Need to Know
The Spurs are 26-11 and sitting second in the West, and that’s not a fluke. This team is built around Wembanyama’s defensive versatility and rim protection, and offensively, they’ve got enough scoring balance to keep defenses honest. Wemby’s 24.2 PPG and 11.5 RPG make him a matchup nightmare, especially against a Celtics frontcourt that doesn’t have a traditional rim protector to match his size and skill.
De’Aaron Fox gives them a secondary scorer who can attack the rim and create for others at 21.0 PPG and 5.9 APG, while Stephon Castle’s 17.7 PPG and 6.9 APG provides playmaking and floor spacing. The key for San Antonio is that they don’t rely on one guy to carry the offensive load — they’ve got three players who can get you 20 on any given night, and that depth matters in a road game where you need multiple guys to step up.
The concern here is the injury report. Devin Vassell is out for a sixth straight game, and Julian Champagnie is questionable. Champagnie’s been stepping up in Vassell’s absence, averaging 19.8 points and 8.2 rebounds over the last five games. If he can’t go, that puts more pressure on Keldon Johnson and Lindy Waters to fill minutes on the wing. But even with that uncertainty, the Spurs have shown they can win on the road — they’re 12-6 away from home, and they just beat the Lakers with Keldon Johnson dropping 27.
Boston Celtics Breakdown: The Other Side
Boston’s 24-13 record is solid, but the context matters. They’re 12-6 at home, which is good but not dominant, and they’re leaning heavily on Jaylen Brown to carry the offensive load without Tatum. Brown’s been excellent at 29.6 PPG, and Payton Pritchard just went off for 28 points and eight assists against Toronto. Derrick White’s 18.4 PPG and 5.3 APG gives them a third scoring option, but that’s a top-heavy offense that can get exposed if the Spurs can slow down Brown.
The main risk here is depth. Without Tatum, Boston doesn’t have the same offensive firepower to pull away from a disciplined team like San Antonio. The Celtics hit 14 threes against Toronto, which is impressive, but the Raptors were short-handed and don’t have the defensive personnel that the Spurs bring with Wembanyama anchoring the paint.
Defensively, Boston’s solid but not elite. They don’t have a true rim protector to match up with Wembanyama, and that’s going to be a problem when the Spurs run pick-and-roll actions with Fox or Castle. The Celtics will try to spread the floor and force San Antonio to defend in space, but if the Spurs can control the pace and limit transition opportunities, Boston’s going to struggle to create the kind of separation this one-point spread suggests.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game comes down to two things: Can Boston generate enough offense without Tatum to cover a point at home, and can the Spurs slow down Jaylen Brown while exploiting Boston’s lack of rim protection?
Let’s start with the offensive side. Boston’s relying on Brown, Pritchard, and White to carry the scoring load, and while that trio has been productive, they’re going up against a Spurs defense that has Wembanyama protecting the rim and the length to contest Boston’s perimeter shots. The Celtics hit 14 threes against Toronto, but the Raptors were short-handed and don’t have the defensive versatility that San Antonio brings. If the Spurs can force Boston into contested looks and limit second-chance opportunities, the Celtics’ offensive efficiency drops.
On the other side, the Spurs have the offensive balance to attack Boston from multiple angles. Wembanyama’s 24.2 PPG makes him a mismatch in the post, Fox can get to the rim, and Castle can create off the dribble. That’s three guys who can put pressure on Boston’s defense, and with Keldon Johnson capable of stepping up — like he did with 27 against the Lakers — the Spurs have the depth to keep this game close.
The total is set at 230.0, which suggests the market expects a relatively high-scoring game. But I’m not sure that’s how this plays out. The Spurs are going to try to control the pace and limit Boston’s transition opportunities, and with Wembanyama protecting the rim, the Celtics are going to have to work for every bucket. If San Antonio can keep this game in the half-court and force Boston into contested shots, the total stays under and the game stays tight.
That’s not just a stat — it’s how this game tilts. Without Tatum, Boston’s margin for error is razor-thin, and the Spurs have the personnel to exploit that.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m taking the San Antonio Spurs +1.0 (-110) for 2 units.
Here’s why: Boston’s a good team, but without Tatum, they’re not the same offensive juggernaut that can lay a point against a 26-11 Spurs squad that’s second in the West. The Spurs have the defensive anchor in Wembanyama to disrupt Boston’s rim pressure, and they’ve got the offensive balance with Fox, Castle, and Keldon Johnson to keep this game tight. I’ve accounted for the home court — and it still doesn’t get there.
The main risk here is if Champagnie can’t go and the Spurs’ wing depth gets tested. But even with that concern, San Antonio’s shown they can win on the road, and at a pick’em price, I’m taking the team with the better two-way star and the more balanced offensive attack.
This matchup narrows the margin more than the line suggests. Give me the Spurs to cover.
