Stephen F. Austin is looking to impose its will in the paint, while Incarnate Word tries to keep pace with their 39.4% shooting from beyond the arc. Bash breaks down the defensive field goal percentages and pace to find the sharpest ATS pick on the board.
The Setup: Incarnate Word at Stephen F. Austin
Stephen F. Austin is laying 7.5 points at home against Incarnate Word on Monday night, and this line is screaming at me from every angle. Look, I get the initial hesitation – Incarnate Word comes in averaging 84.3 points per game and ranks 21st nationally in three-point shooting at 39.4%. That’s a dangerous offensive profile in any conference game. But here’s the thing – when you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com efficiency numbers, this matchup is about as lopsided as it gets in Southland Conference play. The Cardinals might light up the scoreboard, but they’re doing it against some of the worst defensive competition in the country, and that reality check hits hard when they walk into William R. Johnson Coliseum to face a Lumberjacks squad that ranks 79th nationally in defensive rating at 99.2.
Let me walk you through why this 7.5-point spread isn’t just fair – it might be a gift.
Why This Number Makes Sense
The efficiency gap here tells the entire story. According to collegebasketballdata.com, Stephen F. Austin posts an adjusted net efficiency of +6.4, ranking 108th nationally. Incarnate Word? They’re sitting at -3.2, good for 210th in the country. That’s a 9.6-point swing in adjusted efficiency, and over 69 possessions at the pace both teams play, you’re looking at a double-digit expected margin.
But here’s where it gets even more compelling for the Lumberjacks. Incarnate Word’s adjusted defensive efficiency ranks 321st nationally at 114.9. That’s not just bad – it’s catastrophically bad. They’re allowing 45.8% from the field (291st nationally) and 34.5% from three (266th). Now match that against a Stephen F. Austin offense that’s shooting 37.1% from deep (57th nationally) and posting a 115.2 offensive rating. The Cardinals have been able to outscore their defensive deficiencies against weaker competition, but SFA represents a massive step up in class.
Here’s why this line makes sense: The Lumberjacks rank 96th nationally in opponent field goal percentage at 41.3% and 54th in opponent three-point percentage at 29.3%. That 39.4% three-point shooting that makes Incarnate Word dangerous? It’s about to face its toughest test in conference play. Do that math over 25-30 three-point attempts, and you’re looking at a 6-9 point swing just from perimeter defense alone.
Incarnate Word’s Situation
The Cardinals have legitimate firepower. Davion Bailey ranks 26th nationally at 20.4 points per game, and Tahj Staveskie adds 18.6 points while ranking 92nd nationally in assists at 4.8 per game. That’s a potent backcourt duo that can create offense in multiple ways. Their 111.7 adjusted offensive efficiency (101st nationally) shows they can score when things are clicking.
But I keep coming back to those defensive numbers because they’re just too extreme to ignore. Ranking 321st in adjusted defensive efficiency isn’t a small flaw – it’s a fatal one against quality competition. Their last five games paint the picture perfectly: they hung 90 on Northern Arizona and 79 on SE Louisiana, but they got held to 51 at Lamar and 67 at UT Rio Grande Valley. When they face teams with defensive structure, the offense stalls. They rank 337th nationally in blocks per game at just 1.9, meaning they offer zero rim protection. Harold Woods pulls down 7.8 rebounds per game (99th nationally), but that’s one guy trying to hold together a defense that ranks 220th in points allowed.
Stephen F. Austin’s Situation
The Lumberjacks are 7-2 and rolling with purpose. Their 104.7 adjusted defensive efficiency ranks 111th nationally – that’s legitimately good basketball. They’re holding opponents to 68.7 points per game (87th nationally) and blocking 4.9 shots per contest (36th nationally). That rim protection is real, and it’s exactly what stifles teams like Incarnate Word that rely on penetration and kick-outs.
Keon Thompson leads the way at 18.3 points per game while ranking 117th nationally in assists at 4.4 per game. Lateef Patrick adds 15.1 points, and the Lumberjacks get balanced contributions across the board. Their 9.6 turnovers per game ranks 19th nationally – they take care of the ball and make you execute in the halfcourt. That turnover ratio of 0.1 (17th nationally) means they’re not beating themselves with careless possessions.
Here’s the matchup that seals it for me: Stephen F. Austin is coming off an 85-67 home win over Houston Christian and has won four of their last five. That one loss? A two-point road defeat at McNeese. They’re defending home court with authority, and they’re getting this game in Nacogdoches where the environment favors their defensive intensity.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game lives and dies on Incarnate Word’s ability to maintain their three-point shooting efficiency against elite perimeter defense. The Cardinals are launching from deep at 39.4%, but they haven’t faced anything close to Stephen F. Austin’s 29.3% opponent three-point percentage. That’s a 10.1% gap, and over 25 attempts, you’re talking about 7-8 fewer made threes. That’s a 21-24 point swing right there.
The rebounding battle also tilts toward the home team. Stephen F. Austin’s 33.2% offensive rebounding rate (108th nationally) against Incarnate Word’s weak interior defense creates second-chance opportunities. The Cardinals rank 183rd in rebounds per game at 36.9, and they don’t have the size to match up with SFA’s length.
According to CBD, both teams play at nearly identical pace – 69.4 possessions for SFA (152nd) and 69.2 for Incarnate Word (157th). That means we’re looking at a controlled game where efficiency matters more than volume. In a 69-possession game, the 16-point gap between SFA’s 99.2 defensive rating and Incarnate Word’s 108.7 defensive rating translates to an 11-point expected margin. The 6.3-point offensive rating advantage for Incarnate Word (121.5 vs 115.2) doesn’t overcome that defensive chasm.
My Play
Stephen F. Austin -7.5 for 2 units
I’ve considered all of that offensive firepower Incarnate Word brings, and the defensive gap is still too massive to ignore. The Lumberjacks are going to force the Cardinals into contested threes and eliminate easy baskets at the rim. Keon Thompson and Lateef Patrick will control tempo, and Stephen F. Austin’s 62.8% free throw shooting (352nd nationally) is my only real concern in a close game. But I’m not expecting close – I’m expecting a 10-12 point Lumberjacks win.
The main risk here is if Bailey and Staveskie get nuclear from three and hit 8-10 threes combined. That’s always possible with elite shooters. But SFA’s perimeter defense is built to prevent exactly that scenario, and the home court advantage in a Monday night conference game tips this firmly toward the Lumberjacks.
Final Score Prediction: Stephen F. Austin 78, Incarnate Word 68
This line feels right at 7.5, but I trust the efficiency metrics and the defensive matchup. Stephen F. Austin covers at home and makes a statement in Southland Conference play.
