Miami vs Indiana picks and predictions for the College Football Playoff National Championship, breaking down efficiency, line movement, defensive profiles, and how the matchup shapes betting value.
Market Read
According to Pinnacle, this line opened at Indiana -7.5, climbed as high as -9, and has slowly worked its way back to -7.5. That move matters, but not in the way people sometimes think. We’re still sitting above the key number of seven, so this isn’t a dramatic swing — it’s more the market feeling out how much dominance it can charge for.
The total has come down from 48.5 to 47, and that move makes sense once you dig into the scoring profile. Miami has scored an average of just 20.7 points per game across three playoff contests, while Indiana’s defense has tightened with each round. These are two defenses ranked 2nd and 5th nationally in points allowed, and neither coaching staff is going to rush into mistakes on a championship stage.
Game Dashboard
Matchup: #1 Indiana (15-0) vs #10 Miami (13-2)
Date: Monday, January 19th, 7:30 PM ET
Venue: Hard Rock Stadium (Miami’s home field)
Consensus Spread: Indiana -7.5 (-110)
Consensus Total: 47 (-110)
Best Moneyline: Indiana -350, Miami +275
Miami Profile
Miami brings a 30.6 PPG offense against a defense allowing just 14.8 PPG, and on the surface that looks balanced. When you dig into efficiency, though, you start to see the ceiling. Miami sits at 5.8 yards per play and 0.447 points per play — solid, but not the type of production that usually survives against elite defenses.
Carson Beck has played well, completing 71.5% of his passes for 8.1 yards per attempt. The rushing attack hasn’t been explosive on the season, but Mark Fletcher Jr. has carried them through the playoff run with 395 rushing yards in three games. Defensively, Miami holds opponents to 4.5 yards per play and creates turnovers at a respectable rate, though their +0.6 turnover margin doesn’t come close to matching Indiana’s.
From a betting standpoint, Miami’s recent ATS run deserves respect — they’re 5-1 ATS in their last six and have covered all three playoff games. The concern is what happens when that efficiency dips against a defense that doesn’t give away cheap yards.
Indiana Profile
Indiana’s numbers are exactly what they look like: historically dominant. They’re scoring 40.4 points per game while allowing just 11.9, creating a +28.5 margin that very few teams in the modern era can match. Their 0.598 points per play and 6.6 yards per play show that this isn’t volume — it’s efficiency.
Fernando Mendoza has been precise all season, completing 71.63% of his throws at 9.3 yards per attempt. The run game is balanced and physical, averaging over 212 yards per game, and the turnover profile is what separates them from everyone else. Indiana is +21 on the season, leading the nation. They simply don’t give games away.
Defensively, they allow just 3.0 yards per rush and 6.3 yards per pass, forcing opponents to sustain long drives. Their ATS record doesn’t fully capture how dominant they’ve been — in the playoffs, they’ve covered by an average of 32 points.
Head-to-Head Comparison Matrix
| Category | Miami | Indiana | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Run Offense vs Run Defense | 4.1 YPC vs 3.0 allowed | 5.2 YPC vs 3.0 allowed | Indiana |
| Pass Offense vs Pass Defense | 8.1 YPA vs 6.3 allowed | 9.3 YPA vs 6.3 allowed | Indiana |
| Third Down Efficiency | 46.45% vs 31.49% allowed | 57.14% vs 31.72% allowed | Indiana |
| Turnover Margin | +0.6 per game | +1.5 per game | Indiana |
| Red Zone Scoring | 89.29% | 90.63% | Push |
Across the board, Indiana holds the edge. Miami’s best chance is winning early in the trenches and turning this into a disruption game rather than an efficiency game.
Matchup Breakdown
This game comes down to whether Miami can consistently disrupt Indiana’s offense. The Hurricanes generated pressure against Ohio State and Texas A&M, but Indiana’s offensive line has allowed just 11 pressures across two playoff games. If that protection holds, Mendoza will have time to pick spots.
The run game is the lever. Indiana averages 5.2 yards per carry, and while Miami’s run defense numbers look good, the competition hasn’t been comparable. If Indiana establishes the ground game early, they control possession and dictate pace.
Third downs tilt heavily toward Indiana. A 57% conversion rate keeps them out of obvious passing situations, neutralizing Miami’s pass rush. On top of that, Indiana hasn’t fumbled since Week 1 — which removes the easiest path for an underdog to flip a game.
Trends & Patterns
Indiana has been reliable in big spots, going 3-0 ATS on neutral fields and covering by wide margins. Miami’s ATS record is strong, but their games consistently play lower than expectation — they’re 6-9 to the under this season.
Recent totals back the market move. Miami has scored just 21.7 points per game in the playoffs, while Indiana’s defense has improved each round. Neither team profiles as one that wants to turn this into a track meet early.
Advanced Betting Metrics & Projection
From an efficiency standpoint, Indiana projects to a double-digit margin. Their yards per point advantage suggests scoring without needing explosives, while Miami’s offense projects closer to the high teens or low twenties against this defense.
If Indiana converts at least half of their third downs and wins the turnover battle by even one, this game starts separating quickly. Miami needs multiple takeaways and an above-average rushing performance to stay inside the number.
Rich’s Recommendation
Primary Play: Indiana -7.5 (no interest above 8). This number already showed us where the ceiling is. It ran to -9, met resistance, and settled back here. At -7.5, I’m still comfortable laying it because Indiana owns the efficiency edge everywhere that matters — third downs, turnover margin, and drive sustainability. Once you get past 8, you’re paying for dominance the market has already priced.
Secondary Angle: Under 47. This isn’t about Indiana’s offense slowing down — it’s about Miami’s scoring ceiling. Miami has scored just 20.7 points per game in the playoffs, and Indiana’s defense is peaking. Championship games tighten quickly. The risk is short fields or defensive scores, but the profile still leans under.
