Denver opens as a 13-point home favorite, but the smart money is fixated on a Nuggets depth chart that has been absolutely hollowed out. Bash looks at the rotation and asks if Denver’s league-leading scoring average can survive a night without Nikola Jokic, Jonas Valančiūnas, and Cam Johnson.
The Setup: Wizards at Nuggets
Denver lays 13 points at home against Washington on Saturday night, and the market’s treating this like a standard blowout spot. The Nuggets sit at 28-13 and third in the West. The Wizards are 10-30 and dead last in the East. Normally, that’s enough to justify a double-digit spread without much debate.
But this line exists in a vacuum that ignores what Denver actually looks like right now. Nikola Jokic is out with a knee injury. Jonas Valanciunas is out. Cameron Johnson is out with a bone bruise. The Nuggets are down both starting big men and a key wing rotation piece. Meanwhile, Washington’s playing without Trae Young and Bilal Coulibaly, but that’s baked into their season-long profile as a 10-30 team that wasn’t built to compete anyway.
The thesis here is simple: Denver’s depth chart is compromised enough that 13 points against even a bad Wizards team carries legitimate risk. This isn’t about Washington being good. It’s about whether Denver’s current rotation can generate enough separation to cover a two-possession spread without their best player and primary offensive engine.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game: Washington Wizards at Denver Nuggets
Date: Saturday, January 17, 2026
Time: 9:00 ET
Location: Ball Arena
TV: Altitude Sports (Home), MNMT, MNMT2, NBA League Pass (Away)
Current Spread: Denver Nuggets -13.0 (-110)
Moneyline: Nuggets -667 | Wizards +456
Total: 232.5 (Over/Under -110)
Why This Line Exists
The market opened Denver at 13 because the surface-level math still favors the Nuggets significantly. They’re 28-13 with an 11-6 home record. Washington is 4-17 on the road and losing games by double digits regularly. The moneyline at -667 suggests Denver wins this game outright roughly 87% of the time, which tracks given the talent gap.
But the spread isn’t about who wins. It’s about margin, and margin requires offensive firepower and defensive consistency. Jokic averages 29.6 points, 12.2 rebounds, and 11.0 assists per game. That’s not just production—that’s the entire offensive structure. He’s the primary ball-handler, the pick-and-roll hub, and the defensive anchor in the paint. Removing him fundamentally changes how Denver generates offense and protects the rim.
The Nuggets still have Jamal Murray, who’s averaging 25.8 points and 7.5 assists, and Aaron Gordon at 18.5 points and 6.2 rebounds. That’s enough to win games. But covering 13 means winning by at least 14, and that requires either dominant offensive efficiency or the ability to force turnovers and get out in transition. Without Jokic orchestrating the half-court offense and Valanciunas providing rim protection, Denver’s margin for error shrinks considerably. DaRon Holmes and Zeke Nnaji are now handling center minutes, and neither brings the same two-way impact.
The total at 232.5 reflects the expectation that Denver still scores efficiently enough to push pace, but Washington’s offensive limitations keep the ceiling reasonable. The Wizards are averaging respectable individual production from Alexandre Sarr (16.9 points, 7.5 rebounds) and KyShawn George (14.9 points, 5.6 rebounds, 4.8 assists), but they lack the firepower to keep up in a track meet. This number assumes Denver controls tempo and dictates possessions.
Wizards Breakdown: What You Need to Know
Washington’s 10-30 record tells most of the story, but the context matters for this matchup. They’re playing without Trae Young, who won’t make his debut for at least another month as he deals with MCL and quadriceps injuries. That removes any potential offensive upgrade they might’ve had. Bilal Coulibaly is also out, which thins their wing depth further.
What Washington does have is enough individual scoring to avoid complete blowouts if the opponent isn’t executing. Sarr and George provide frontcourt size and scoring versatility. The Wizards aren’t built to win games, but they’re not built to fold immediately either. Their 4-17 road record shows they struggle away from home, but in spots where the opponent is compromised, they can hang around longer than the spread suggests.
The bigger issue for Washington is defensive consistency. They don’t force turnovers at a high rate, and they don’t protect the rim well enough to slow down efficient offenses. Against a healthy Denver team, that’s a death sentence. Against this version of the Nuggets, it means they’ll give up points but won’t get completely run off the floor.
Nuggets Breakdown: The Other Side
Denver’s 28-13 record and third-place standing in the West are built almost entirely on Jokic’s brilliance. His 29.6 points, 12.2 rebounds, and 11.0 assists per game make him the most impactful player in basketball right now. Without him, the Nuggets become a good team rather than a dominant one.
Murray and Gordon are both capable of carrying offensive loads, and Murray’s recent 33-point performance against Dallas shows he can step up in Jokic’s absence. But Murray’s efficiency drops when he’s forced into primary ball-handling duties for extended stretches. Gordon provides athleticism and transition scoring, but he’s not a shot creator in the half-court.
The depth chart problem extends beyond Jokic. Valanciunas was supposed to absorb some of the center minutes, but he’s out too. Cameron Johnson’s absence removes a key wing defender and floor spacer. That leaves Denver relying on Holmes and Nnaji at center, neither of whom brings the same offensive versatility or defensive presence. Tim Hardaway and Bruce Brown are candidates to start in Johnson’s place, but both are role players being asked to do more than their usual responsibilities.
Denver’s 11-6 home record suggests they’re comfortable at Ball Arena, but those wins came with Jokic anchoring everything. This version of the Nuggets can still win games, but covering double-digit spreads requires execution they may not have right now.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
The key variable here is possessions and how efficiently Denver converts without Jokic running the offense. In a typical game with around 95-100 possessions, covering 13 points means Denver needs to outscore Washington by roughly 0.14 points per possession. That’s achievable when Jokic is orchestrating, but it becomes much harder when Murray and Gordon are forced into isolation-heavy offense.
Washington’s defensive limitations mean Denver will get good looks, but the question is whether they can convert consistently enough to build a lead that holds through the fourth quarter. The Wizards won’t generate enough offense to stage a comeback, but they also won’t collapse early if Denver’s offense stalls.
The total at 232.5 assumes Denver pushes pace and gets out in transition, but without Jokic’s rebounding and outlet passing, their transition game slows down. Washington doesn’t have the firepower to push the total over on their own, which means this game likely trends under unless Denver’s role players shoot exceptionally well from three.
The matchup in the paint heavily favors Washington in terms of opportunity. Without Jokic and Valanciunas, Denver’s rim protection is compromised. Sarr can attack the basket and get second-chance points, which keeps possessions alive and prevents Denver from pulling away. Over 40 minutes, that difference adds up and keeps the margin tighter than 13 points.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
The line here is inflated based on Denver’s season-long profile, not their current roster reality. Thirteen points is asking a Jokic-less Nuggets team to dominate a bad Wizards squad by two possessions, and the depth chart simply doesn’t support that outcome. Murray and Gordon are good players, but they’re not good enough to cover double digits against a team that won’t quit early.
Washington’s 4-17 road record is ugly, but this is a spot where Denver’s injuries create enough uncertainty that the Wizards can stay within the number even if they lose by 10 or 11. The total at 232.5 also feels high given Denver’s compromised transition game and Washington’s offensive limitations. The under has value, but the spread is the cleaner play.
The risk is Murray going nuclear and dropping 40-plus in an efficient performance, which he’s capable of doing. If Denver shoots well from three and forces turnovers early, they can build a lead that holds. But the more likely scenario is a game that stays competitive into the fourth quarter before Denver pulls away by single digits.
BASH’S BEST BET: Wizards +13.0 for 2 units.
Denver wins, but they don’t cover. The injuries matter too much, and 13 points is too many to lay in this spot. Take the points and let Washington’s competitiveness keep this within the number.
