Tulsa brings one of the nation’s most efficient offenses to Birmingham this Sunday, but our expert prediction focuses on whether UAB’s top-50 perimeter defense can stall the Golden Hurricane’s momentum.
The Setup: Tulsa at UAB
UAB’s laying 1.5 to 2 points at home against Tulsa, and if you’re scratching your head wondering why this line is so tight, you’re not alone. The Golden Hurricane roll into Bartow Arena with an 8-1 record, while the Blazers sit at 7-3. On the surface, this looks like a pick’em. But when you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com efficiency numbers, the story gets more interesting. Tulsa’s adjusted offensive efficiency ranks #16 nationally at 121.8, while UAB checks in at a pedestrian #163. That’s a massive gap. Yet the market is essentially calling this a coin flip. The question isn’t whether Tulsa can score—they absolutely can. The question is whether UAB’s defensive profile and home court can neutralize that offensive firepower enough to cover a tiny number.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Matchup: Tulsa (8-1) @ UAB (7-3)
Date: January 18, 2026
Time: 3:00 PM ET
Venue: Bartow Arena, Birmingham, AL
Type: American Conference Game
DraftKings:
Spread: UAB -1.5
Total: 157.5
Moneyline: UAB -125, Tulsa +105
Bovada:
Spread: UAB -2
Total: 157.5
Moneyline: UAB -135, Tulsa +115
Why This Number Makes Sense (or Doesn’t)
Let’s start with the obvious: Tulsa’s adjusted net efficiency of +15.1 (#41 nationally) dwarfs UAB’s +7.7 (#95). That’s nearly a double-digit gap in the metric that matters most. The Golden Hurricane are legitimately elite offensively, ranking #28 in raw offensive rating at 128.0 and #16 in adjusted offensive efficiency. They shoot 37.8% from three (#36) and post a true shooting percentage of 61.2% (#34). This is a team that knows how to score efficiently.
So why is UAB favored? Two reasons: home court and defensive profile. The Blazers’ adjusted defensive efficiency sits at #47 nationally (100.7), significantly better than Tulsa’s #150 mark. UAB holds opponents to 29.1% from three (#50 nationally) and forces 9.0 steals per game (#48). They’re scrappy, disruptive, and they defend the arc—which happens to be where Tulsa does much of its damage.
The tempo split matters here too. Tulsa plays at a pace of 68.4 possessions (#184), while UAB slows it down to 65.8 (#272). That’s not a massive difference, but it’s enough to shave a few possessions off the game, which inherently benefits the less efficient offensive team. UAB wants this game in the mid-60s possession-wise. Tulsa would prefer a track meet. The total of 157.5 reflects a market expectation of roughly 70 possessions at these teams’ efficiency levels—right in that middle ground.
Tulsa Breakdown: The Analytical Edge
Tulsa’s offense is the real deal. David Green leads the way at 14.6 points per game, but this is a balanced attack with five guys averaging between 9 and 15 points. Miles Barnstable adds 14.3 PPG, while Tylen Riley (13.1 PPG) serves as the primary facilitator with 3.8 assists per game (#207 nationally). That ball movement shows up in the numbers—Tulsa ranks #29 nationally in turnovers per game at just 9.9, and their turnover ratio of 0.1 ranks #17.
The Golden Hurricane take care of the basketball, shoot it efficiently, and space the floor. Their effective field goal percentage of 56.6% (#51) tells you they’re getting quality looks. The concern? They don’t generate much havoc defensively. Just 6.1 steals per game (#270) and 2.6 blocks per game (#299) means they’re not creating extra possessions. Against a UAB team that thrives on second-chance points—the Blazers rank #52 nationally in offensive rebounding percentage at 35.2%—that could be problematic.
UAB Breakdown: The Counterpoint
UAB’s offensive numbers are pedestrian across the board. They shoot just 26.9% from three (#357 nationally), which is borderline catastrophic in modern college basketball. Their effective field goal percentage of 48.7% ranks #302, and their true shooting percentage of 53.1% checks in at #294. This is not a team built to win shootouts.
What UAB does well is rebound and defend. They pull down 44.3 rebounds per game (#8 nationally), with KyeRon Lindsay-Martin (7.4 RPG, #136) and Daniel Rivera (7.3 RPG, #144) controlling the glass. They’ve scored 181 points off turnovers through 10 games, and their 9.0 steals per game suggests they create chaos. Chance Westry (15.9 PPG) and Jacob Meyer (14.7 PPG) provide the scoring punch, but this team wins by grinding you down, not by outscoring you in transition.
The Blazers’ recent results tell the story: a 109-106 win at South Florida, an 87-85 win at East Carolina. These are rock fights that come down to the final possession. That’s UAB’s comfort zone.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game comes down to whether UAB can force Tulsa into the mud. The Blazers need to crash the offensive glass, create extra possessions, and limit Tulsa’s three-point attempts. If Tulsa gets clean looks from deep at their preferred pace, UAB doesn’t have the offensive firepower to keep up.
But here’s where it gets interesting: Tulsa’s offensive rebounding percentage ranks just #140 nationally at 32.2%. UAB is elite on the defensive glass by extension of being elite overall on the boards. The Blazers can eliminate second-chance points and force Tulsa to beat them in the halfcourt. And in a halfcourt game where UAB’s defense can set up and take away the three-point line? That’s where this number starts to make sense.
The pace battle is critical. If UAB can keep this game in the low 60s possession-wise and turn it into a grind-it-out affair, they’ve got a real shot. Tulsa’s defensive rating of 99.7 (#91) is solid but not elite. UAB can score enough to stay in this game if they control tempo and win the possession battle on the glass.
Bash’s Best Bet
I’m taking UAB -1.5. Look, Tulsa’s offensive efficiency numbers are scary, and that 8-1 record looks impressive. But that adjusted defensive efficiency gap is real. UAB ranks #47 defensively; Tulsa ranks #150. In a conference game at Bartow Arena where UAB can dictate tempo and muck this up, I trust the Blazers’ defensive profile and rebounding edge to get them a home win.
The spread is tight enough that we’re not asking UAB to dominate. We’re asking them to win a possession or two down the stretch in a game that stays in the 70s. That’s exactly the kind of game UAB is built to win. Tulsa’s going to score—they always do—but UAB’s going to limit those possessions, control the glass, and make enough plays defensively to steal a few extra possessions. In a game that tight, home court matters. UAB -1.5 is the play.
