After a dominant 14-point victory earlier this month, the Bobcats head to Greeley for an expert prediction on whether Montana State’s top-50 shooting efficiency can replicate its success against Northern Colorado’s top-five perimeter defense.
The Setup: Montana State at Northern Colorado
Northern Colorado’s laying 2.5 at home against Montana State, and something doesn’t add up here. The Bears are 9-1, Montana State limps in at 4-6, and the market’s essentially calling this a coin flip? Not buying it. When you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com efficiency numbers, these teams are virtually identical—both sitting around 4.0 in adjusted net efficiency, both ranked in the 120s nationally. But here’s where it gets interesting: Montana State just boat-raced this same Northern Colorado squad 89-75 three weeks ago. The Bobcats are 4-6, sure, but three of those losses came by single digits, and they’re shooting 56.8% effective field goal percentage, ranking 47th nationally. Meanwhile, Northern Colorado’s lost four of their last five, including that 14-point drubbing in Bozeman. The market’s asking us to believe home court and a shiny 9-1 record overcome a massive recent head-to-head beatdown. I’m not convinced.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Montana State (4-6) at Northern Colorado (9-1)
Date: January 19, 2026
Time: 8:00 PM ET
Venue: Bank of Colorado Arena, Greeley, CO
Point Spread: Northern Colorado -2.5
Total: 155.5
Moneyline: Northern Colorado -155, Montana State +130
Why This Number Makes Sense (or Doesn’t)
Let’s start with what the numbers actually say. Northern Colorado’s adjusted offensive efficiency sits at 110.2, ranked 129th nationally. Montana State checks in at 109.2, ranked 147th. Defensively? Northern Colorado’s at 105.5 (129th), Montana State at 105.2 (119th). These teams are essentially carbon copies from an efficiency standpoint, which explains why the spread is tight. The market’s giving Northern Colorado 2.5 points for home court, and in college basketball, that’s typically the standard home court advantage calculation.
But here’s the problem: efficiency metrics are predictive, and they suggest a virtual toss-up. Recent performance, however, tells a different story. Montana State just demolished Northern Colorado by 14 on January 2nd, and it wasn’t particularly close. The Bobcats shot the Bears off the floor, and Northern Colorado’s subsequent 1-4 stretch suggests that loss wasn’t a fluke—it exposed something. The Bears rank 332nd in steals per game at just 5.0, and they’re 347th in offensive rebounding percentage at 24.9%. They don’t create extra possessions, and against a Montana State team that protects the ball reasonably well (11.1 turnovers per game, 96th nationally), that’s a problem.
The total of 155.5 makes more sense. Both teams play at a glacial pace—Northern Colorado ranks 296th at 64.9 possessions per game, Montana State 275th at 65.7. Combined offensive ratings of 116.3 and 121.4 in a slow-tempo game projects right around this number. No argument there.
Montana State Breakdown: The Analytical Edge
The Bobcats’ record is misleading. Yes, they’re 4-6, but the shooting numbers are elite. That 56.8% effective field goal percentage ranks 47th nationally, and they’re converting 36.3% from three (83rd). This isn’t a team struggling to score—they’re putting up 79.2 points per game against quality competition, with an offensive rating of 116.3 that ranks 112th.
Davian Brown and Patrick McMahon form a solid backcourt duo, averaging 14.4 and 14.2 points respectively, and Jed Miller adds another 12.9. That’s three guys who can get buckets, and against Northern Colorado’s perimeter defense, that matters. The Bears allow just 24.6% from three (5th nationally), but Montana State doesn’t live and die by the three—they’re getting quality looks inside, evidenced by 322 points in the paint through 10 games.
The defensive numbers are respectable too. Montana State’s holding opponents to 29.3% from three, ranking 54th nationally. They’re not a sieve—they’re a competent defensive team that can shoot the lights out when clicking.
Northern Colorado Breakdown: The Counterpoint
Northern Colorado’s 9-1 start looks impressive until you examine the recent slide. Four losses in five games, and the lone win came against Idaho State—not exactly a resume builder. The Bears’ strength is supposed to be their offensive efficiency, ranking 62nd nationally with a 121.4 offensive rating, but that hasn’t translated lately. They’re shooting 50.3% from the field (32nd) and 37.9% from three (34th), but Montana State already proved they can slow down this attack.
Quinn Denker is the engine here, averaging 17.3 points and 6.1 assists (22nd nationally). He’s a legitimate playmaker, and the Bears rank 19th in assists per game at 19.0. They move the ball well and generate open looks. Brock Wisne and Zach Bloch provide secondary scoring, but when Denker struggles, this offense stalls.
The defensive metrics are solid—99.6 defensive rating ranks 89th—but Montana State already cracked the code. The Bobcats scored 89 on this defense three weeks ago, and nothing in Northern Colorado’s recent performances suggests they’ve fixed whatever broke that night.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game comes down to whether Northern Colorado can solve Montana State’s shooting efficiency. The Bobcats’ 59.7% true shooting percentage (68th nationally) is elite, and they’re not reliant on one dimension. They score in the paint, they hit threes, and they get to the line at a decent clip with 74.1% free throw shooting.
Northern Colorado’s defensive strength is perimeter defense—that 24.6% opponent three-point percentage is top-five nationally. But Montana State isn’t a volume three-point shooting team. They’re balanced, methodical, and efficient. The Bobcats’ 48.3% field goal percentage (66th) suggests they’re getting quality looks consistently.
The pace favors neither team—both want to grind this out in the mid-60s possession range. But in a rock fight, I’ll take the team that just won the first bout by 14 points. Montana State’s 12.0 assists per game (312th) is concerning, but they don’t turn it over much, and against a Northern Colorado team that doesn’t force turnovers (5.0 steals per game, 332nd), that weakness is mitigated.
Northern Colorado’s home court advantage is real, but it’s not worth four possessions. The Bears need to prove they’ve adjusted since that January 2nd beatdown, and I don’t see the evidence.
Bash’s Best Bet
Montana State +2.5 (-110)
I’m riding with the Bobcats here, and I’m not overthinking it. Montana State just proved they’re the better team three weeks ago, and Northern Colorado’s 1-4 slide since suggests that loss wasn’t an aberration. The efficiency metrics say these teams are equals, the recent head-to-head says Montana State’s superior, and we’re getting points? Sign me up.
The Bobcats shoot too well to fade in a game projected this close. That 56.8% effective field goal percentage is legitimate, and Northern Colorado’s defense—while solid—couldn’t slow them down last time. I’ll take the points and wouldn’t be shocked if Montana State wins this one outright. The market’s overvaluing Northern Colorado’s early-season record and undervaluing recent performance. That’s where we make money.
Final Pick: Montana State +2.5
