The Knicks open as heavy home favorites, but our expert prediction explores whether New York’s questionable backcourt health opens the door for a desperate Dallas squad to cover the double-digit spread.
The Setup: Mavericks at Knicks
The Knicks are laying 10 points at Madison Square Garden against a Mavericks team that’s hemorrhaging talent and sitting at 17-26. New York checks in at 25-17 and third in the East, while Dallas limps in at 12th in the West with a brutal 4-14 road mark. This line screams blowout on paper, but the numbers tell a more nuanced story once you account for pace, rotation depth, and the Knicks’ own injury concerns. Jalen Brunson is questionable with a sprained right ankle after missing the last two games, and Josh Hart is dealing with ankle soreness. If either sits, this double-digit spread starts looking shaky against a Mavericks squad that just put up 138 points against Utah with six players in double figures.
Dallas is running on fumes without Kyrie Irving and Dante Exum, but they’ve got Anthony Davis averaging 20.4 points and 11.1 boards, plus Cooper Flagg contributing 18.8 points and facilitating at 4.2 assists per game. The Mavericks are covering with volume and pace when they can’t match talent. That 138-point eruption against the Jazz wasn’t a fluke—it was Klay Thompson dropping 23 in the first half and the offense finding rhythm through ball movement. The question is whether they can replicate that energy on the second night of a back-to-back situation in the league’s most hostile road environment.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Date: Monday, January 19, 2026
Time: 5:00 ET
Location: Madison Square Garden
TV: NBC, Peacock
Current Spread: Knicks -10.0 (-110) | Mavericks +10.0 (-110)
Moneyline: Knicks -435 | Mavericks +321
Total: 230.5 (Over/Under -110)
Why This Line Exists
The market landed on Knicks -10 because New York is 16-5 at home while Dallas is a disaster on the road at 4-14. That’s a 12-game swing in venue-specific performance, and oddsmakers are pricing in the Knicks’ ability to protect Madison Square Garden against undermanned opponents. Add in the Mavericks playing without their best perimeter creator in Irving and missing Dereck Lively II for the season, and the talent gap justifies the double-digit number.
But the line doesn’t account for the Knicks’ own vulnerability. Brunson has missed two straight with the ankle sprain, and he’s the engine that makes this offense hum at 28.2 points and 6.1 assists per game. If he sits again, Miles McBride, Tyler Kolek, and Jordan Clarkson are handling creation duties—a significant downgrade in both efficiency and usage. Hart’s questionable status further complicates the rotation depth that typically allows New York to grind opponents down in the second half.
The total at 230.5 reflects the Knicks’ ability to push pace at home and Dallas’ recent offensive explosion. That 138-point performance against Utah signals the Mavericks can score in bunches when the game opens up, and New York just allowed 106 to Phoenix in a loss where they couldn’t generate enough stops. The over makes sense if both teams are compromised defensively due to injuries and rotation stress.
Mavericks Breakdown: What You Need to Know
Dallas is surviving on Anthony Davis’ interior dominance and Cooper Flagg’s versatility. Davis is posting 20.4 points and 11.1 rebounds while anchoring what’s left of the frontcourt rotation after Lively’s season-ending foot surgery. Daniel Gafford and Dwight Powell are splitting minutes behind him, but neither provides the rim protection or vertical spacing Lively offered. That’s a problem against Karl-Anthony Towns, who’s averaging 20.9 points and 11.5 boards and can exploit mismatches in the post.
Flagg is the wildcard here. At 18.8 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 4.2 assists, he’s functioning as a secondary creator in Irving’s absence, and his ability to push tempo and attack closeouts will determine whether Dallas can stay within striking distance. P.J. Washington adds 14.6 points and 7.4 boards, giving the Mavericks three legitimate scoring threats who can operate in different areas of the floor.
The issue is consistency on the road. That 4-14 mark away from home isn’t just bad luck—it’s a reflection of Dallas’ inability to generate quality looks against set defenses without Irving’s pick-and-roll mastery. When the Mavericks can’t get out in transition, they’re forced into contested jumpers and isolation possessions that don’t scale against playoff-caliber defenses.
Knicks Breakdown: The Other Side
New York’s strength is their home-court dominance and the Brunson-Towns two-man game. When healthy, Brunson’s 28.2 points and 6.1 assists paired with Towns’ inside-out scoring creates mismatches that force defenses to choose their poison. Mikal Bridges chips in 16.1 points and provides the perimeter defense that allows the Knicks to switch and pressure ball-handlers without sacrificing rim protection.
But the Knicks just lost to Phoenix at home, and Devin Booker carved them up for 27 points despite missing the previous game with an ankle injury. That defensive breakdown is concerning against a Mavericks team that can score in transition and exploit gaps in help rotations. If Brunson and Hart are both compromised or sidelined, the Knicks lose the two-way versatility that makes them dangerous in halfcourt settings.
The 16-5 home record is built on controlling pace and winning the possession battle through offensive rebounding and limiting turnovers. Towns’ 11.5 rebounds per game is a big part of that equation, and his ability to punish smaller defenders in the post should give New York an advantage if Dallas tries to switch everything. The question is whether the Knicks have enough creation without Brunson to consistently generate quality looks against a Mavericks defense that’s been leaky but opportunistic.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game comes down to whether the Knicks can impose their pace and physicality on a Mavericks team playing the second of back-to-back games. Dallas just expended a ton of energy in that 138-120 win over Utah, and the travel and turnaround favor New York’s ability to grind possessions and attack the glass. Towns should dominate the paint against Gafford and Powell, and if Brunson plays, his pick-and-roll chemistry with Towns will create the high-percentage looks that Dallas can’t match on the other end.
The Mavericks need to turn this into a track meet. Their best path to covering is pushing pace off makes and misses, getting Davis and Flagg into space where they can attack before the Knicks’ defense is set. That 138-point outburst against Utah came from ball movement and transition opportunities, and if Dallas can replicate that energy despite the fatigue, they’ve got a shot to keep this within single digits.
The injury situations are the swing factor. If Brunson sits, the Knicks lose their primary creator and the player who sets the tone defensively. McBride and Kolek are rotation pieces, not stars, and asking them to generate 28 points and 6 assists against a motivated Mavericks squad is a tall order. Hart’s absence would further deplete the perimeter defense and rebounding that allows New York to control possessions.
On the flip side, Dallas is already playing without Irving and Exum, so they’re operating from a deficit regardless. The difference is the Mavericks have adjusted their rotations and offensive schemes to compensate, while the Knicks would be scrambling to replace Brunson’s production on the fly. That’s an edge for Dallas in terms of preparation and rhythm.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m taking the Mavericks +10 for 2 units. This line assumes the Knicks are healthy and firing on all cylinders, but Brunson’s questionable status and Hart’s ankle soreness create enough uncertainty to make double digits too many points. Dallas just scored 138 and has shown they can put up points when the game opens up, and the Knicks’ recent defensive struggles against Phoenix suggest they’re not locking down anyone right now.
The main risk is Brunson playing and the Knicks blowing this open in the third quarter with their superior talent and home-court energy. But even if that happens, the Mavericks have enough scoring punch with Davis, Flagg, and Washington to keep this competitive into the fourth. That 4-14 road record is ugly, but it’s also a small sample against better teams in tougher spots. This is a get-right game for Dallas if they can survive the first half.
BASH’S BEST BET: Mavericks +10.0 for 2 units.
