Michigan enters tonight’s matchup as the top-rated defensive team in the country, facing an Indiana squad reeling from three straight double-digit losses. The efficiency numbers suggest a mismatch, but can the Hoosiers find a rhythm and secure a cover as a road ATS pick?
The Setup: Indiana at Michigan
Michigan’s laying 15.5 at home against Indiana, and if you’re hesitating because it’s a Big Ten conference game, I get it. Double-digit conference spreads make people nervous. But when you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com efficiency numbers, this isn’t about blind faith in a big number—it’s about a massive talent and execution gap that the market has properly identified. Michigan sits at #1 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency (88.0) while ranking #6 in adjusted offensive efficiency (124.2). That’s a 36.2 adjusted net rating, also tops in the country. Indiana? They’re #20 in adjusted net rating (19.7), which is respectable, but the Hoosiers just dropped three straight and are walking into the buzzsaw that is Crisler Center against an 8-0 Michigan squad that’s firing on all cylinders.
The thesis here is simple: Indiana’s three-game losing skid isn’t a fluke—it’s exposure. And Michigan’s defense is about to make that crystal clear.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Matchup: Indiana (7-2) @ Michigan (8-0)
Date: January 20, 2026
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Venue: Crisler Center, Ann Arbor, MI
DraftKings:
Spread: Michigan -15.5
Total: 163.5
Moneyline: Michigan -1800, Indiana +1000
Bovada:
Spread: Michigan -15.5
Total: 163
Moneyline: Michigan -2200, Indiana +1000
Why This Number Makes Sense (or Doesn’t)
Let’s talk about how the market arrived at 15.5, because it’s not arbitrary. Michigan’s 36.2 adjusted net rating compared to Indiana’s 19.7 gives you a raw differential of 16.5 points on a neutral court. Add in home court advantage—worth roughly 3-4 points in college basketball—and you’re looking at a theoretical spread in the 19-20 point range. So at 15.5, the market is actually giving Indiana a bit of credit here, probably accounting for the fact that this is a conference game where familiarity breeds competitiveness.
But here’s the thing: Indiana just got throttled by Iowa (74-57), Michigan State (81-60), and Nebraska (83-77). That’s three straight games where their #29 defensive rating (93.9) got exposed by quality offensive teams. Michigan ranks #37 in offensive rating (125.7) with a #7 effective field goal percentage (61.0%). The Wolverines shoot 52.8% from the field (#5 nationally) and dominate the glass at 45.8 rebounds per game (#2 in the country). Indiana’s sitting at 37.1 rebounds per game (#173) with an offensive rebounding rate that ranks #343 nationally. That’s a problem.
The pace differential is negligible—Michigan at 71.9 (#71), Indiana at 70.7 (#112)—so we’re not dealing with a tempo mismatch that could skew the total. This is about execution, efficiency, and physicality. Michigan has all three.
Indiana Breakdown: The Analytical Edge
What does Indiana do well? They take care of the basketball, ranking #25 nationally with just 9.8 turnovers per game and sporting a #17 turnover ratio. They also move the ball beautifully, ranking #14 in assists per game (19.3). Tucker DeVries leads the way at 17.8 points per game, and Lamar Wilkerson adds 16.0 PPG. This is a guard-oriented offense that thrives on ball movement and limiting mistakes.
The problem? Indiana’s #343 offensive rebounding percentage means they’re almost exclusively a one-shot offense. Against Michigan’s #2 ranked defense in opponent field goal percentage (34.6%), that’s a death sentence. You’re not getting second chances against a team that blocks 6.4 shots per game (#7 nationally) and rebounds like Michigan does.
Indiana’s recent losses tell the story: 57 points against Iowa, 60 against Michigan State. When they can’t create easy looks in transition—and Michigan allows just 66.6 points per game—they struggle to crack 70.
Michigan Breakdown: The Counterpoint
Michigan is the #1 team in adjusted defensive efficiency for a reason. They hold opponents to 34.6% shooting (#2 nationally) and 30.0% from three (#78). Aday Mara anchors the paint with 8.9 rebounds per game, while Yaxel Lendeborg (7.6 RPG) and Morez Johnson Jr. (6.2 RPG) provide additional size and physicality that Indiana simply can’t match.
Offensively, Michigan ranks #3 in assists per game (20.8) and #7 in effective field goal percentage. They score 94.6 points per game (#8 nationally) and do it efficiently with a #11 true shooting percentage (63.9%). This isn’t a one-dimensional offense—they score in the paint (346 points), in transition (133 fast break points), and from deep (37.3% from three).
The only concern? Michigan turns it over 13.4 times per game (#266), which is exploitable. But Indiana ranks just #240 in steals per game (6.6), so they’re not built to capitalize on that weakness.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game gets decided on the glass and in the paint. Michigan’s 45.8 rebounds per game against Indiana’s 37.1 is a mismatch that will create additional possessions and second-chance opportunities for the Wolverines. Indiana’s #343 offensive rebounding percentage means they’re not equipped to battle Michigan’s size.
Defensively, Indiana’s #28 opponent field goal percentage (38.5%) is solid, but Michigan’s 52.8% shooting and 61.0% effective field goal percentage suggest the Hoosiers haven’t faced an offense this efficient. Michigan’s ability to score in multiple ways—paint, transition, perimeter—will stretch Indiana’s defense beyond its breaking point.
The other factor? Indiana’s recent form. Three straight losses, including two blowouts, suggest a team that’s been figured out. Michigan’s #1 adjusted defensive efficiency is the exact wrong opponent for a team trying to find its rhythm.
Bash’s Best Bet
I’m laying the 15.5 with Michigan. This number feels light given the efficiency gap and Indiana’s current trajectory. Michigan is #1 in adjusted net rating for a reason—they’re the best team in college basketball right now, and they’re playing at home against a team that just got boat-raced three games in a row.
Indiana’s inability to crash the offensive glass and Michigan’s dominance on the boards will create a possession advantage that compounds over 40 minutes. Add in Michigan’s #2 opponent field goal defense against an Indiana offense that’s scored 57, 60, and 77 in its last three, and I’m comfortable projecting a final in the 85-65 range. That covers with room to spare.
The Pick: Michigan -15.5
