The Lakers head into Denver as slight road favorites, looking to exploit a Nuggets team missing Nikola Jokic and Jonas Valanciunas. With Luka Doncic carrying a massive offensive load, we evaluate if the Lakers’ remaining star power makes them the sharpest ATS pick on the board.
The Setup: Lakers at Nuggets
The Lakers are 2.5-point road favorites in Denver on Tuesday night, which tells you everything about how dramatically injuries have reshaped this matchup. Los Angeles comes in at 25-16, winners of their last game against Toronto despite missing Austin Reaves. Denver sits at 29-14 but just absorbed a blowout loss to Charlotte without Nikola Jokic, Jonas Valanciunas, and Cameron Johnson. This line exists in a vacuum created by absences—both teams are operating without their second-best offensive engines, and the market has landed on a near pick-em that reflects uncertainty more than conviction. The Lakers’ road efficiency gets tested against a Nuggets team that’s been better away from Ball Arena this season, sitting 12-7 at home compared to 17-7 on the road. That home-road split matters when you’re laying points in a building where the home team hasn’t dominated. With Luka Doncic carrying a 33.3 PPG scoring load and LeBron James still producing 22.6 PPG at this stage of his career, the Lakers have the star power advantage. But without Reaves’ 26.6 PPG and playmaking, the usage burden intensifies.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game: Los Angeles Lakers at Denver Nuggets
Date: Tuesday, January 20, 2026
Time: 10:00 ET
Location: Ball Arena
TV: NBC, Peacock
Current Betting Lines (Bovada):
- Spread: Lakers -2.5 (-110) | Nuggets +2.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Lakers -140 | Nuggets +120
- Total: Over 228.5 (-110) | Under 228.5 (-110)
Why This Line Exists
The market has priced this as a coin flip with a slight Lakers lean, and the logic centers on comparative talent depletion. Denver is down Jokic, who averages 29.6 points, 12.2 rebounds, and 11.0 assists per game—a triple-double machine who controls pace and efficiency on both ends. They’re also without Valanciunas and Cameron Johnson, which guts their frontcourt depth and perimeter versatility. The Lakers counter with their own significant absence in Reaves, who’s been their second-leading scorer at 26.6 PPG while facilitating at 6.3 assists per game. The difference is Doncic and LeBron still give Los Angeles two legitimate offensive fulcrums, while Denver is leaning on Jamal Murray’s 25.9 PPG and Aaron Gordon’s 18.0 PPG without their best player.
The 228.5 total reflects expected pace suppression from both teams missing key offensive creators. Fewer possessions with clear advantages, more halfcourt grinding, and rotation uncertainty all point to a game that stays below typical Lakers-Nuggets scoring environments. The spread at 2.5 suggests the market believes the Lakers’ remaining firepower outweighs Denver’s home-court advantage, but not by much. That’s a respect line for a Nuggets team that’s been more effective on the road this season anyway—17-7 away from Ball Arena means this isn’t a situation where home cooking provides significant edge.
Lakers Breakdown: What You Need to Know
Doncic’s 33.3 PPG and 8.6 APG make him the most important player on the floor Tuesday night, and the Reaves absence forces even more creation onto his plate. LeBron at 22.6 PPG and 6.9 APG remains productive, but the real question is who fills the 26-point void left by Reaves. Marcus Smart, Dalton Knecht, and potentially Bronny James will see increased minutes, but none of them replicate Reaves’ scoring volume or efficiency. That creates a usage crunch where Doncic and LeBron need to generate more possessions in isolation or pick-and-roll sets, which can slow pace and reduce overall offensive efficiency.
The Lakers’ 13-8 road record shows competence away from home, but their recent win over Toronto came against a rebuilding team. Deandre Ayton’s return from knee injury provided 25 points and 13 rebounds in that game, giving them interior presence they’ll need against Denver’s depleted frontcourt. The matchup favors Los Angeles in the paint if Ayton can exploit DaRon Holmes and Zeke Nnaji, who are stepping into emergency minutes without Jokic or Valanciunas protecting the rim or controlling boards.
Nuggets Breakdown: The Other Side
Denver’s 110-87 loss to Charlotte exposed what happens when Jokic’s orchestration disappears from the offense. The Nuggets managed just 87 points against a Hornets team that isn’t known for defensive prowess, which illustrates how much their offensive structure depends on Jokic’s passing and scoring gravity. Murray’s 25.9 PPG keeps them functional, and Gordon’s 18.0 PPG provides secondary scoring, but neither player creates for others at Jokic’s level. The 11.0 assists per game Jokic generates can’t be replaced by committee.
The frontcourt situation is dire. Valanciunas was supposed to fill the starting center role with Jokic out, but now both are sidelined, leaving Holmes and Nnaji as the primary big men. Neither has the offensive skill or defensive presence to control possessions the way Jokic does. Cameron Johnson’s absence removes a versatile wing who could have helped space the floor and defend multiple positions, forcing more minutes onto Tim Hardaway, Bruce Brown, Peyton Watson, and Julian Strawther. That’s a significant talent downgrade across the rotation.
The 12-7 home record is actually worse than their 17-7 road mark, which undermines the typical home-court narrative. Ball Arena hasn’t provided the expected advantage this season, and against a Lakers team with superior remaining star power, that trend could continue.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game comes down to creation advantages and how efficiently each team generates quality shots without their missing pieces. The Lakers still have two players who can break down defenses in Doncic and LeBron, while Denver is relying on Murray as their primary initiator with significantly less help. Over a 95-possession game, that difference compounds. If the Lakers can get Doncic 35-40 touches and LeBron another 25-30, they control enough possessions to dictate pace and shot quality.
The interior battle favors Los Angeles if Ayton can dominate the glass and finish around the rim against Holmes and Nnaji. Neither Denver big has the strength or skill to match Ayton’s physicality, which could create second-chance opportunities and easy baskets in the paint. That efficiency edge matters in a game where both teams are operating with compromised offensive structures.
Defensively, the Lakers can load up on Murray without worrying about Jokic punishing them with passes or post scoring. That’s a massive simplification of their game plan—force the ball out of Murray’s hands, make Gordon and the role players beat you, and trust that Denver’s depleted roster can’t generate enough efficient looks to keep pace. The Nuggets’ recent 87-point output against Charlotte suggests they’re struggling to score without Jokic’s gravity, and the Lakers have better defensive personnel than the Hornets.
The total at 228.5 assumes both teams reach 110-115 points, but the offensive limitations on both sides point lower. Fewer possessions with clear advantages, more contested shots, and rotation uncertainty all suppress scoring. The under has leverage if pace stays in the low 90s and neither team finds consistent rhythm.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
The Lakers have the better remaining roster, and that matters more than Denver’s home court in this spot. Doncic and LeBron provide two legitimate offensive hubs, while Murray is operating as a one-man show without Jokic’s playmaking. The frontcourt mismatch favors Los Angeles, and Denver’s 12-7 home record doesn’t inspire confidence that Ball Arena provides meaningful edge. The 2.5-point spread undervalues the Lakers’ star power advantage and overrates a Nuggets team that just scored 87 points against Charlotte.
The risk is the Lakers’ own offensive limitations without Reaves, and if Doncic or LeBron have an off night, the scoring burden becomes unsustainable. But Denver’s path to covering requires Murray going nuclear and the supporting cast outperforming their recent form, which feels like a lower-probability outcome than the Lakers grinding out a road win with superior talent.
BASH’S BEST BET: Lakers -2.5 for 2 units. The talent gap is real, the matchup favors Los Angeles in the paint, and Denver’s home-court advantage is overstated. Take the better team with the better players and trust that star power wins in a depleted environment.
