Former sportsbook manager RBD breaks down Rams vs Seahawks betting angles, focusing on defense, rushing, and line movement.
Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks
Defense + Rushing = Championships
So it was unusual for me to bet on the Seahawks last week, after banking a unit with them the week before.
And it’s even more unusual for me to use them a third week in a row, which is exactly what I’m doing for this weekend’s NFC Championship Game game.
Because while I do bet conservatively I also like to stick with what works, and Seattle has been working for me.
I still have the same reason for betting on the Seahawks that I had in their previous two games – the “D” word.
The Defense Angle
Last week the Seattle Defense gave up TWICE as many points to San Fran as they did in their previous meeting.
Sounds like a lot, right?
Not when you consider that they only gave up THREE points in the first meeting, meaning they only gave up SIX in their last meeting.
How effective was the Seattle D against the San Fran passing game?
Purdy finished the game with a QB rating of 37.3.
How about against the run?
They held McCaffrey to just 35 yards.
THAT’S how effective they were.
Seattle’s defense gave up just 17 PPG during the regular season.
In recent play, over their last six games they’ve only given up 12.5 PPG.
Remove the OT game from those six and they’re giving up just 7.6 PPG.
There’s a reason for the saying, “Defense wins championships.”
And that reason will be on full display this weekend.
Game Planning Edge
The Rams have weaknesses, and Seattle’s HC Mike Macdonald’s game plan will exploit them.
It’s a simple plan really – pressure Stafford and shut down Nacua.
Easier said than done for most teams, but Seattle has the player personnel and talent to pull it off.
Macdonald will easily out game plan Sean McVay.
Last week, the Rams defense couldn’t hold on to the lead against Chicago, giving up a TD in the final minute.
Then, in the first possession of OT, McVay ran the ball three times and had to punt.
He has the top candidate for the league’s MVP at QB and he doesn’t allow him to throw a single pass.
If not for Caleb Williams’ boneheaded interception, the Rams would be sitting at home watching the games on TV this weekend.
Home Field and Recent Form
In the regular season, Seattle was 6-2 SU at home, while the Rams were just 5-4 on the road.
In the postseason, the Rams are 2-0 but they had to come from behind late in the 4th quarter to survive against the Panthers, and they needed OT to beat the Bears.
Two tough postseason road wins take a toll on a team.
But even if they’re hitting on all cylinders, the Rams are overmatched in their next contest.
The Seahawks are simply playing on a different level than any other team in the NFL at this point in the season.
This is not the same Seattle team that split the regular season series with LA.
They’re peaking at just the right time.
Quarterback & Rushing Breakdown
Sam Darnold is a concern to me as a Seahawk fan, and bettor.
He’s not going to beat anybody with his arm.
He could be called adequate at best.
But that’s all he has to be.
Coach Macdonald will limit Sam’s opportunities to make mistakes and lean heavily on the run game and his defense.
A good coach makes adjustments.
In their first meeting, a Seahawk loss, Darnold threw 44 passes (and he completed FOUR of those passes to the Rams.)
In the next game, Macdonald limited his QB to 34 passes.
He still threw two interceptions but the run game rushed for 171 yards to give Seattle the win.
It took four interceptions for the Rams to beat the Seahawks in their first matchup this season.
They’re not going to get four interceptions this weekend.
Macdonald won’t allow it.
He’ll lean on the run game, even with Charbonnet out.
Less Charbonnet means more Walker, who’s averaging 125 yards per game over his last four.
In three of their last four road games, the Rams have allowed their opponents over 150 rushing yards (171 at Seattle, 219 at Atlanta, and 160 at Chicago.)
Over that time frame they’re giving up an average of 150 per.
Defense and a solid rushing game wins championships.
And this week, Seattle has a decided edge in both.
When to Buy Recommendation
The line troubles me on this one.
The two teams are evenly matched; edge to Seattle on defense, edge to LA on offense.
Their first two meetings this season were close, 38-37 and 21-19.
You take two evenly matched teams, you factor in home field advantage, and this should have opened at Seattle -3.
But the books opened at Seattle -2′??!!
With the line under a full FG they KNEW they were going to get flooded with Seattle money.
And the books don’t stay in business by paying people.
The line started to adjust itself and moved to where it should have opened, Seattle – 3.
But today it’s back to -2′.
There’s no such thing as a trap line.
I know this is true, first hand experience from being an oddsmaker in Vegas.
But that number troubles me.
Any other team and I’d probably buy the dog up to +3.
But I’m a Seattle fan.
And I’m going to root for my team this weekend, just like a regular non-betting fan.
Yes, this is another homer bet for me.
But I’ve got stats and a defense to back up my play.
And a 16-8 record in my article picks, 67%, so I can afford a homer bet in the biggest game of the season up to this point.
Sea -2′
