Boston enters tonight’s contest ranking 2nd in the East, while Indiana’s 29th-ranked road defense faces an uphill battle at TD Garden. Our prediction looks at how the Celtics’ high-octane backcourt will exploit a Pacers roster missing its top three scoring options.
The Setup: Pacers at Celtics
Boston is laying 11 points at TD Garden against an Indiana team that’s been absolutely gutted by injuries, and the market isn’t being subtle about it. The Celtics are 26-16 and sitting second in the Eastern Conference. The Pacers are 10-34, dead last in the East at 15th, and they’re doing it without Tyrese Haliburton for the entire season after his Achilles tear in last year’s Finals. This isn’t a competitive matchup on paper—it’s about whether Boston can cover a double-digit number at home against a team that’s won just two road games all season. The Pacers are 2-18 on the road. That’s not a typo. Indiana has been getting destroyed away from home, and now they’re walking into TD Garden on a Wednesday night after dropping a game in Philadelphia on Monday. The line is telling you Boston should win this comfortably, but the question is whether the Celtics have enough firepower and focus to put away a team that’s already dead in the water.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: January 21, 2026, 7:30 ET
Venue: TD Garden
TV Network: Home: NBC Sports BO | Away: FanDuel SN IN, NBA League Pass
Current Betting Lines (MyBookie.ag):
- Spread: Boston Celtics -11.0 (-110)
- Spread: Indiana Pacers +11.0 (-110)
- Moneyline: Boston Celtics -526 | Indiana Pacers +379
- Total: Over/Under 226.5 (-110)
Why This Line Exists
The market landed on 11 because Boston is the second-best team in the East and Indiana is functionally tanking without Haliburton. The Celtics are 12-7 at home, which isn’t dominant but it’s competent, and they’re facing a Pacers squad that can’t defend or execute on the road. Indiana’s 2-18 road record is one of the worst marks in the league, and they’re missing not just Haliburton but also Bennedict Mathurin and Obi Toppin. Mathurin is out but could return later on this road trip—he hasn’t played since January 2. Toppin had surgery and won’t be back until at least February 1. That’s three rotation pieces gone, and the Pacers are left leaning on Pascal Siakam and Andrew Nembhard to carry the offensive load.
Boston, meanwhile, is without Jayson Tatum for the season, but Jaylen Brown has stepped up in a massive way. Brown is averaging 29.8 points, 6.6 rebounds, and 4.7 assists per game this season, and he’s been the engine for this Celtics offense. He’s listed as probable for this game with a minor issue, but he’s played through it recently and averaged over 30 points per game in his last nine appearances. The Celtics also get solid secondary scoring from Derrick White at 17.7 points per game and Payton Pritchard at 16.6 points per game. That’s three guys who can score in bunches, and Indiana doesn’t have the personnel to match up defensively. The line is 11 because the talent gap is real, the home court matters, and the Pacers have shown zero ability to compete on the road.
Pacers Breakdown: What You Need to Know
Indiana is running on fumes. Siakam is putting up 23.6 points, 6.9 rebounds, and 4.0 assists per game, and he’s been their most reliable offensive weapon. Nembhard has been solid as a facilitator with 17.6 points and 7.1 assists per game, but he’s not the kind of player who can take over a game on the road against a quality opponent. Mathurin, who averages 17.8 points and 5.5 rebounds, is out and might not return until later in this road trip. Without him, the Pacers lose their second-best scoring option behind Siakam.
The Pacers’ road struggles aren’t just about talent—they’re about execution under pressure. Two wins in 20 road games means they’re not closing out competitive possessions, they’re not defending at a high level, and they’re not getting consistent production beyond Siakam. Indiana is also coming off a loss in Philadelphia on Monday, where Tyrese Maxey and Joel Embiid combined for 59 points. The Pacers gave up 113 in that game, and they’re walking into another tough environment in Boston without the depth to rotate effectively. This is a team that’s playing out the string, and they don’t have the horses to hang with a motivated Celtics squad at home.
Celtics Breakdown: The Other Side
Boston is dealing with life without Tatum, but Brown has been exceptional. He’s averaging nearly 31 points per game over his last nine appearances, and he’s doing it efficiently while contributing across the board. White and Pritchard give the Celtics two more scoring threats who can space the floor and create off the dribble, and that balance is critical when you’re trying to cover a double-digit spread. The Celtics are 12-7 at home, which isn’t elite, but they’re also coming off a tight loss in Detroit on Monday where Brown missed a buzzer-beater in a 104-103 defeat. That’s the kind of loss that can refocus a team, especially when the next opponent is a struggling Pacers squad.
Boston’s home court matters here. TD Garden is a tough place to play, and the Celtics have enough offensive firepower to put up points in bunches. White is averaging 17.7 points and 5.4 assists, and Pritchard is chipping in 16.6 points and 5.3 assists per game. That’s three guys who can get you 15-plus on any given night, and Indiana doesn’t have the defensive personnel to slow all three down. The Celtics also have the depth advantage—they’re not missing key rotation players the way Indiana is. Brown is probable, which means he’s playing, and Boston should have their full complement of contributors available for this one.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game gets decided in transition and on the defensive glass. The Pacers are a team that wants to push pace and get out in transition, but they don’t have the personnel to execute that consistently on the road without Haliburton. Siakam and Nembhard can initiate offense, but they’re not the kind of playmakers who can break down a defense in the half-court and create easy looks for others. Boston, on the other hand, can control tempo and force Indiana into half-court sets where the Pacers struggle to generate quality shots.
The total is set at 226.5, which suggests the market expects a moderately paced game with enough scoring to get over. Brown is the key here—if he’s aggressive early and gets downhill, the Celtics can blow this open in the first half. Indiana’s road defense has been porous all season, and they’re not going to suddenly lock down a Celtics offense that has multiple scoring threats. The Pacers are also dealing with depth issues in the frontcourt without Toppin, which means Boston should have an advantage on the boards and in second-chance points. Over an 80-possession game, those extra opportunities add up quickly, and they’re the difference between covering 11 and falling short.
The other factor is Indiana’s lack of road competitiveness. Two wins in 20 road games means they’re not fighting through adversity—they’re folding when things get tough. Boston should be able to build a lead in the first half and maintain it through the second half without much resistance. The Celtics have the talent, the home court, and the motivation after a tough loss in Detroit. The Pacers are undermanned, overmatched, and playing their second road game in three days. That’s a recipe for a double-digit loss.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m laying the 11 points with Boston. The Celtics are the better team, they’re at home, and they’re facing a Pacers squad that’s won two road games all season. Brown is playing at an elite level, and Indiana doesn’t have the depth or defensive firepower to slow him down. The Pacers are missing Mathurin and Toppin, and they’re coming off a loss in Philadelphia where they gave up 113 points. Boston should be able to control this game from start to finish and cover the double-digit spread without much drama.
The main risk here is complacency. The Celtics are heavy favorites, and there’s always a chance they take their foot off the gas in the fourth quarter if they build a big lead. But Indiana’s road record suggests they’re not capable of making a late push, and Boston should have enough talent and execution to keep the margin wide. This is a spot where the better team should take care of business at home, and the line reflects that reality.
BASH’S BEST BET: Celtics -11.0 for 2 units.
Boston gets it done at home and covers the number against a Pacers team that’s been getting destroyed on the road all season. Lay the points and cash the ticket.
