The road team is favored in Bartow Arena, but history says beware: the Blazers took down this same USF squad in a 109-106 double-overtime thriller just weeks ago. This best bet dives into the 166.5 total and whether the market is underestimating another high-possession track meet.
The Setup: South Florida at UAB
South Florida is laying 2.5 points on the road at UAB, and if your first instinct is to ask “wait, the road team is favored?” then you’re paying attention. The Bulls are 5-4, the Blazers are 7-3, and we’re in Bartow Arena where UAB just beat this exact South Florida team 109-106 three weeks ago. So what gives? The market is telling you something, and when you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com efficiency numbers, it’s not as crazy as it looks. South Florida ranks 46th nationally in adjusted net efficiency at +14.1, while UAB sits back at 95th with a +7.7 mark. That’s a meaningful gap. But here’s the thing—these teams just played an absolute barnburner that went to 215 combined points, and now we’re looking at a total of 166.5? Something doesn’t add up, and that’s exactly where the edge lives in this rematch.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Matchup: South Florida @ UAB
Date: January 22, 2026
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Venue: Bartow Arena, Birmingham, AL
Spread: South Florida -2.5
Total: 166.5
Moneyline: UAB +114, South Florida -135
Why This Number Makes Sense (or Doesn’t)
Let’s start with the spread. South Florida getting 2.5 points of road respect is entirely about the efficiency gap. The Bulls rank 54th in adjusted offensive efficiency at 116.0 and 60th defensively at 101.8. UAB? They’re 163rd offensively at 108.4 and 47th defensively at 100.7. So UAB defends better, but South Florida is significantly more dangerous on offense and slightly better on defense when you adjust for competition. That 8-point offensive efficiency advantage is massive—it translates to roughly 5-6 points per 100 possessions in a neutral environment. Factor in that South Florida’s adjusted net is nearly double UAB’s, and suddenly a small road favorite makes sense.
But that total? That’s where I’m scratching my head. These teams combined for 215 points three weeks ago. South Florida averages 89.4 points per game (22nd nationally) with an offensive rating of 127.4 (32nd). UAB puts up 82.4 per game with a 125.0 offensive rating (42nd). Both teams can score. Yet the market landed on 166.5, which implies a 83-84 point average per team. The pace numbers tell part of the story—South Florida runs at 67.1 possessions (235th) and UAB at 65.8 (272nd)—so we’re not talking about a track meet. But even in a halfcourt game, these offenses are too efficient to stay under 80 unless something fundamental changes from the first meeting.
South Florida Breakdown: The Analytical Edge
The Bulls are a fascinating offensive machine built on volume and second chances. They rank 22nd nationally in offensive rebounding percentage at 36.5%, which means they’re getting extra possessions even when the initial shot doesn’t fall. Josh Omojafo leads at 14.7 points per game, but the real engine is CJ Brown, who’s dishing 5.2 assists per game (64th nationally) and creating advantages in the halfcourt. Izaiyah Nelson is a monster on the glass at 9.3 rebounds per game (32nd), giving South Florida consistent second-chance opportunities.
The problem? Defense is a suggestion, not a requirement. South Florida ranks 313th in defensive rating at 115.2 and allows 80.1 points per game (317th). They’re giving up 44.4% from the field and a brutal 36.1% from three (306th). They’ll force turnovers—10.0 steals per game ranks 24th—but they’re not stopping anyone in the halfcourt. That creates variance, which is exactly what happened in the first meeting when both teams lit up the scoreboard.
UAB Breakdown: The Counterpoint
UAB is built differently. They’re the 8th-best rebounding team in the country at 44.3 boards per game, and they protect the ball beautifully with just 10.0 turnovers per game (37th). Chance Westry is the primary creator at 15.9 points and 4.0 assists, while KyeRon Lindsay-Martin and Daniel Rivera give them a physical frontcourt presence with 7.4 and 7.3 rebounds per game respectively.
The Blazers defend at a competent level—101st in opponent field goal percentage at 41.4% and 50th in opponent three-point percentage at 29.1%. That 100.7 adjusted defensive efficiency (47th) is legit. But here’s the catch: their offense is inconsistent. They’re shooting just 26.9% from three (357th) and 70.3% from the free-throw line (220th). When the threes aren’t falling, they grind possessions in the paint, which works at home but creates scoring droughts. They just got torched 99-77 by Tulsa, showing they can be exploited by efficient offenses.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game will be decided on the glass and at the free-throw line. Both teams are elite rebounding units—South Florida 53rd in rebounds per game, UAB 8th—which means second-chance points will be plentiful. In the first meeting, South Florida attempted 26 free throws to UAB’s 29, and that 4-point free-throw advantage for UAB was the difference in a three-point game. South Florida shoots 74.6% from the stripe (90th) compared to UAB’s 70.3% (220th), so if the Bulls can get to the line, they have an edge in efficiency.
The pace will be critical. Both teams want to slow it down—South Florida at 67.1, UAB at 65.8—but South Florida’s offensive rating advantage means they’re more dangerous in the halfcourt. UAB’s defensive edge (100.7 vs. 101.8 adjusted) is marginal, and they just allowed 109 points to this same South Florida team three weeks ago. Can they suddenly clamp down? I’m skeptical. South Florida’s 116.0 adjusted offensive efficiency is top-60 in the country for a reason—they create quality shots even in grind-it-out possessions.
The total is the real story. If UAB’s three-point shooting stays cold (26.9% on the season), they’ll struggle to keep pace with South Florida’s balanced attack. And if South Florida’s defense remains as porous as their 115.2 rating suggests, UAB will find enough easy buckets to stay in range. Everything points to another high-scoring affair.
Bash’s Best Bet
The Play: Over 166.5
I’m not touching the spread in a revenge spot where UAB has home-court and recent history. But that total? It’s begging to be attacked. These teams just combined for 215 points, and nothing in the underlying metrics suggests a massive defensive adjustment is coming. South Florida ranks 32nd in offensive rating, UAB 42nd. Both teams are top-60 in rebounding, which means extra possessions. The first meeting saw 26 and 29 free-throw attempts—expect similar volume in a physical rematch.
The market is banking on pace to keep this under, but even at 66 possessions, these offenses are too efficient to stay quiet. Give me the over 166.5, and let’s watch these teams run it back with another shootout in Birmingham.
