Bash is targeting the spread at Kaplan Arena as the Seahawks look to extend their seven-game winning streak. With Nolan Hodge leading the scoring charge, find out why his prediction hinges on Wilmington’s ability to force the Tribe into half-court turnovers.
The Setup: UNC Wilmington at William & Mary
UNC Wilmington is laying 1.5 points on the road at William & Mary, and if you’re wondering why the Seahawks are getting road chalk despite both teams sitting near the top of the CAA, you’re asking the right question. The answer lives in the efficiency margins. According to collegebasketballdata.com, Wilmington checks in with an adjusted defensive rating of 105.3 (124th nationally) while William & Mary posts a significantly better 100.5 (44th). But here’s the wrinkle—the Seahawks own a 98.2 raw defensive rating (63rd) that’s been tested against quality competition, while the Tribe has been bleeding 75.4 points per game (235th nationally). This is a pace-versus-efficiency collision, and the market is banking on Wilmington’s 9-1 record and superior adjusted offensive efficiency (113.2, 88th) to overcome a hostile Kaplan Arena environment. The total sits at 156.5, which feels light given William & Mary’s tempo.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Matchup: UNC Wilmington (9-1) @ William & Mary (8-3)
Date: January 22, 2026
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Venue: Kaplan Arena, Williamsburg, VA
Conference: CAA
Spread: UNC Wilmington -1.5
Total: 156.5
Why This Number Makes Sense (or Doesn’t)
The 1.5-point spread tells you the market respects both teams but gives Wilmington the slightest nod based on their unblemished conference play and superior adjusted net rating (7.9 vs. 10.8). Wait—William & Mary actually has the better adjusted net rating at 10.8 (67th nationally) compared to Wilmington’s 7.9 (92nd). So why are the Seahawks favored on the road?
The answer is in the matchup dynamics and recent form. Wilmington has won five straight, including quality road wins at Stony Brook and Northeastern. The Tribe, meanwhile, just dropped three straight away from home and looked vulnerable defensively in all three losses. But here’s where the spread gets interesting—this is essentially a pick’em with home court baked in. William & Mary’s pace (77.0, 6th nationally) creates 9.5 more possessions per game than Wilmington’s methodical 67.5 tempo (218th). That’s massive. The Tribe forces the action with 9.1 steals per game (47th) and pushes tempo relentlessly with 20.0 assists per game (9th nationally).
The total at 156.5 projects to roughly 79-77, which underestimates William & Mary’s scoring capacity at home. They’re averaging 86.0 points per game (53rd) with a true shooting percentage of 61.6% (24th nationally). In a game that should see 72-75 possessions based on William & Mary’s tempo dominance, 156.5 feels like a number designed to attract Over money.
UNC Wilmington Breakdown: The Analytical Edge
The Seahawks win with defensive discipline and offensive efficiency. That 39.1% opponent field goal percentage (38th nationally) isn’t an accident—they defend without fouling and force tough shots. Limiting opponents to 30.1% from three (83rd) gives them a cushion when their own offense gets stagnant.
Offensively, Wilmington operates through Nolan Hodge’s 15.1 points per game (289th nationally) and Patrick Wessler’s interior presence—8.5 rebounds per game (60th nationally) gives them second-chance opportunities. The 53.4% effective field goal percentage (129th) reflects smart shot selection, even if the assist rate (13.2 per game, 258th) suggests they’re more isolation-heavy than flow-oriented.
The concern? Wilmington’s 71.0% free throw shooting (199th) and their inability to generate transition opportunities. Just 76 fast break points through 10 games against a William & Mary team that’s already scored 198 tells you everything about the pace battle ahead.
William & Mary Breakdown: The Counterpoint
William & Mary is built to run, and they’re dangerous when they control tempo. That 49.8% field goal percentage (41st nationally) and 57.5% effective field goal percentage (36th) shows an offense firing on all cylinders. They share the ball beautifully—20.0 assists per game (9th) creates open looks and keeps defenses rotating.
The defensive identity revolves around creating chaos. Forcing 9.1 steals per game (47th) and blocking 4.1 shots (104th) generates transition opportunities that fuel their 77.0 pace. They’ve held opponents to 26.1% from three (9th nationally), which should neutralize Wilmington’s 37.3% three-point shooting (50th).
But here’s the problem—they turn it over 14.9 times per game (337th nationally), which is catastrophic against a disciplined team like Wilmington. Those 221 points off turnovers they’ve scored? They’ve also gifted opponents plenty of easy buckets. The 24.4% offensive rebounding rate (350th) means they’re not getting second chances when possessions stall.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game comes down to pace control, and I don’t think Wilmington has the personnel to slow down William & Mary’s transition attack. The Tribe’s 77.0 pace will force the Seahawks into an uncomfortable tempo, and that’s where the turnovers become critical. Wilmington only forces 10.7 turnovers per game (70th), but William & Mary is giving you 14.9 (337th). That’s a 4-possession swing in a game that might see 75 total possessions.
The three-point battle favors Wilmington on paper—37.3% shooting against a defense allowing 26.1%. But volume matters. William & Mary’s pace creates more three-point attempts, and their 33.9% conversion rate (172nd) becomes more dangerous with extra possessions.
Interior play tilts toward Wilmington with Wessler’s rebounding prowess, but William & Mary’s 424 points in the paint compared to Wilmington’s 322 shows who’s been more effective attacking the rim. The Tribe’s 57.5% effective field goal percentage (36th) reflects their ability to generate quality looks inside.
Defensively, both teams have shown they can get stops, but William & Mary’s adjusted defensive rating of 100.5 (44th) is significantly better than Wilmington’s 105.3 (124th) when you account for opponent strength. That’s a real edge for the home team.
Bash’s Best Bet
I’m taking William & Mary +1.5 and sprinkling the moneyline. The Tribe’s tempo advantage is too significant to ignore, and Wilmington’s slow-paced approach (67.5, 218th) won’t dictate this game at Kaplan Arena. William & Mary’s superior adjusted defensive rating and home-court advantage make them the right side in what should be a tight, competitive CAA battle.
The Over 156.5 also has appeal given the pace discrepancy, but I’m more confident in the side. William & Mary wins this outright, 82-78.
Best Bet: William & Mary +1.5
