Minnesota enters tonight’s contest as a 9.5-point home favorite, but their prediction hinges on a defense that allowed 127 points in their last outing. With Anthony Edwards averaging 29.9 PPG, the Timberwolves look to exploit a Chicago rotation that has struggled with consistency away from the United Center.
The Setup: Bulls at Timberwolves
The Timberwolves are laying 9.5 points at home against a Bulls squad that just torched the Clippers for 138 points on a franchise-tying 25 threes. Minnesota’s sitting at 27-17, Chicago at 21-22, and this spread tells you exactly what the market thinks about the gap between a home team with Anthony Edwards averaging 29.9 points per game and a road team that’s 7-13 away from home. The Bulls hit their shooting variance ceiling Tuesday night with Coby White draining six triples in a 28-point blowout, but that kind of offensive explosion doesn’t travel well for a team that’s struggled to cover on the road all season. Minnesota just dropped a game in Utah where they gave up 127 points, but the underlying efficiency profile here favors the home side once you account for Chicago’s road splits and the Timberwolves’ ability to control pace at Target Center.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: January 22, 2026, 8:00 ET
Location: Target Center
TV: Home: FanDuel SN North | Away: CHSN, NBA League Pass
Current Betting Lines (MyBookie.ag):
- Spread: Timberwolves -9.5 (-110) | Bulls +9.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Timberwolves -417 | Bulls +315
- Total: 238.5 (Over/Under -110)
Why This Line Exists
This number sits at 9.5 because Minnesota’s 15-6 home record reflects a team that defends better and controls possessions in their building, while Chicago’s 7-13 road mark exposes a roster that can’t replicate their 14-9 home performance away from the United Center. The Timberwolves have Anthony Edwards putting up nearly 30 a night with Julius Randle adding 22.4 points and 7.0 rebounds, and that two-man offensive engine creates a usage advantage that Chicago can’t match on the road. The Bulls are coming off a shooting performance that won’t repeat—25 made threes represents the kind of variance spike that regresses hard, especially for a team that’s been inconsistent offensively all season.
The total at 238.5 factors in Chicago’s recent offensive explosion but also accounts for Minnesota’s ability to slow games down when they need to. The Bulls just hung 138 on the Clippers, but that came at home against a team that’s been surging defensively, which makes it an outlier rather than a trend. Minnesota gave up 127 in Utah, but that was a road game against a Jazz team that got a career night from Keyonte George with 43 points. At home, the Timberwolves have the personnel to make Chicago work for every possession, and that possession control is what justifies this spread.
Bulls Breakdown: What You Need to Know
Chicago’s offensive identity runs through Josh Giddey’s playmaking—19.2 points, 8.9 rebounds, and 9.0 assists—but he’s listed as questionable after missing time since late December. If Giddey sits again, the Bulls lose their primary facilitator and the engine that makes their offense functional. Coby White just went off for 27 points with six threes against the Clippers, but his 18.5 points per game season average reflects a player who’s streaky rather than consistently efficient. Nikola Vucevic provides 17.0 points and 9.1 rebounds, but his defensive limitations get exposed against teams with multiple scoring options like Minnesota.
The road splits tell the real story here. Chicago’s 7-13 away from home because they don’t defend well enough to win games where their shooting regresses, and they don’t control pace effectively enough to dictate tempo. Zach Collins remains out with a right big toe sprain, which limits their frontcourt depth behind Vucevic. The Bulls can score in bunches when the threes fall, but that 25-three performance against the Clippers isn’t sustainable, especially in a road environment where their offensive efficiency drops.
Timberwolves Breakdown: The Other Side
Minnesota’s offensive ceiling lives with Anthony Edwards, who’s having a career year at 29.9 points per game. That scoring volume paired with Julius Randle’s 22.4 points and 5.4 assists gives the Timberwolves two legitimate shot creators who can attack mismatches and generate efficient looks. Jaden McDaniels adds 15.0 points and provides the kind of two-way versatility that makes Minnesota’s rotations work defensively. Terrence Shannon Jr. remains out with a left foot abductor hallucis strain, but his absence doesn’t crater the rotation depth the way Giddey’s potential absence impacts Chicago.
The Timberwolves’ 15-6 home record reflects a team that defends better at Target Center and controls possessions more effectively in front of their crowd. They just lost in Utah, but that was a road game where Jusuf Nurkic posted a triple-double and Keyonte George went nuclear for 43 points. At home, Minnesota has the defensive personnel to make Chicago’s offense work harder for quality looks, and their ability to generate efficient offense through Edwards and Randle creates a usage advantage that should translate to covering this spread.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game gets decided by whether Chicago can replicate their shooting variance from the Clippers game or whether they regress to their season-long road efficiency. The Bulls hit 25 threes at home against Los Angeles, but that kind of volume and accuracy doesn’t travel for a team that’s 7-13 on the road. Minnesota’s defensive scheme will force Chicago to generate offense in the halfcourt rather than in transition, and that possession-by-possession grind favors the team with better shot creators.
Edwards and Randle give Minnesota two players who can attack Chicago’s defense individually, while the Bulls need Giddey’s playmaking to generate quality looks for White and Vucevic. If Giddey sits, Chicago loses the connective tissue that makes their offense functional, and that creates a usage imbalance that Minnesota can exploit over 95-100 possessions. The Timberwolves don’t need to blow Chicago out early—they just need to control pace, defend the three-point line better than the Clippers did, and let their offensive talent create separation in the second half.
The total at 238.5 assumes Chicago brings some of that offensive firepower from Tuesday, but Minnesota’s home defense should force enough contested shots to keep this game below that number. The Bulls scored 138 at home, but on the road they don’t get the same offensive rhythm, and the Timberwolves have the personnel to make every possession a grind. Over a full game, that possession control and defensive pressure should create enough separation for Minnesota to cover this spread comfortably.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m laying the points with Minnesota at home. The Bulls just hit their offensive ceiling against the Clippers with a franchise-tying 25 threes, and that kind of shooting variance doesn’t repeat on the road for a team that’s 7-13 away from home. The Timberwolves have the better offensive talent with Edwards and Randle, they defend better at Target Center, and they control pace more effectively than Chicago can handle on the road. If Giddey sits again, the Bulls lose their primary facilitator and the offensive structure collapses even further.
The risk here is Chicago catching fire again from deep and turning this into a shootout, but the underlying efficiency and home-road splits favor Minnesota covering this number. The Timberwolves should control possessions, defend the three-point line better than the Clippers did, and let their offensive talent create separation over the final 20 minutes. This spread accounts for the talent gap and the venue advantage, and I trust Minnesota to execute at home against a Bulls team that struggles to defend and can’t replicate Tuesday’s shooting performance.
BASH’S BEST BET: Timberwolves -9.5 for 2 units.
