The market is laying 7.5 points with a Bulldogs team that has dropped two of their last three, but Marquette is fresh off an electric 105-104 overtime win. This best bet analyzes if Nigel James Jr.’s 38-point momentum can translate to the Golden Eagles’ first road cover in over a month.
The Setup: Marquette at Butler
Butler’s laying 7.5 at Hinkle Fieldhouse against Marquette on Friday night, and the market’s telling you a story about two teams heading in opposite directions. The Bulldogs sit at 7-2 with an adjusted net efficiency of +14.8 that ranks 42nd nationally, while Marquette limps in at 5-5 with a barely-above-water +0.8 adjusted net that slots them 162nd. That’s a 14-point efficiency gap, and when you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com numbers, this spread isn’t just reasonable—it might be light.
Here’s what jumps off the page: Butler ranks 43rd in adjusted offensive efficiency at 117.0, while Marquette checks in at 195th with a 106.5 mark. That’s an 10.5-point gap in offensive firepower when you level the playing field for competition. Meanwhile, Butler’s adjusted defensive efficiency of 102.2 (66th nationally) gives them another edge over Marquette’s 105.7 mark (135th). The Bulldogs are better on both sides of the ball, they’re at home, and they play faster. The question isn’t whether Butler should be favored—it’s whether 7.5 points captures the full gap.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Matchup: Marquette at Butler
Date: January 23, 2026
Time: 8:00 PM ET
Venue: Hinkle Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN
Conference: Big East
Spread: Butler -7.5
Total: 160.5
Moneyline: Not Available
Why This Number Makes Sense (or Doesn’t)
Let’s work backwards from the efficiency data to see if 7.5 holds water. Butler’s running a 120.3 offensive rating and 98.9 defensive rating in actual games—that’s a +21.4 point differential per 100 possessions. Marquette sits at +5.6 (108.6 offensive, 103.0 defensive). Over roughly 71 possessions at Butler’s pace of 72.9, that efficiency gap projects to about an 11-point Butler win before you factor in home court.
Home court in college basketball typically adds 3-4 points, which would push this toward a 14-15 point projected margin. So why is the market only asking for 7.5? Part of it’s recency bias—Marquette just knocked off Providence 105-104 and stayed within three of Villanova. Butler, meanwhile, has dropped two of three, including an 89-75 beatdown at Xavier. The market’s giving Marquette credit for competitiveness and docking Butler for recent struggles.
But here’s the thing: those efficiency numbers aren’t fluky. Butler’s 49.6% field goal percentage ranks 43rd nationally, their 39.4% three-point shooting sits 21st, and their 56.5% effective field goal percentage checks in at 55th. They’re an elite shooting team. Marquette counters with a 42.5% field goal mark (299th), 31.3% from three (267th), and a 49.1% effective field goal percentage that ranks 292nd. The Bulldogs shoot it better from everywhere, and they’re defending a Marquette offense that ranks 226th in offensive rating. The number feels soft.
Marquette Breakdown: The Analytical Edge
If Marquette’s going to cover 7.5 on the road, they’ll need to manufacture chaos and live at the free throw line. The Golden Eagles rank 25th nationally in steals per game at 9.9, and their turnover ratio of 0.1 sits 38th. They’re built to pressure the basketball and create transition opportunities—they’ve scored 210 fast break points already this season.
Chase Ross is the engine, dropping 19.5 points per game (46th nationally) while contributing 3.6 assists. Nigel James Jr. adds 12.2 points and another 3.5 assists, giving them two legitimate perimeter creators. Ben Gold pulls down 7.2 boards per game (152nd nationally), providing some interior presence. The offensive rebounding rate of 34.5% (73rd) means they’re creating second chances.
The problem? Everything else. Marquette’s 53.8% true shooting percentage ranks 267th, their effective field goal percentage sits 292nd, and they’re just not efficient enough to trade baskets with a team shooting as well as Butler. They’ll need to speed this game up beyond Butler’s 72.9 pace and force 15-plus turnovers to create enough extra possessions to matter.
Butler Breakdown: The Counterpoint
Butler’s offensive profile is exactly what you want in a home favorite: elite shooting, balanced scoring, and a monster on the glass. Michael Ajayi is the statistical unicorn here—16.2 points per game and 11.6 rebounds (4th nationally). That’s a legitimate double-double threat every night who gives them second-chance opportunities and interior scoring.
Finley Bizjack leads the team at 18.0 points per game, while Jamie Kaiser Jr. chips in 10.0 points and 5.6 boards. They’ve got four guys averaging between 7.9 and 18.0 points, which makes them difficult to scheme against. The 17.0 assists per game (59th) tells you they’re moving the ball and finding open looks, which explains the elite shooting percentages.
Defensively, Butler’s holding opponents to 42.0% from the field (119th) and just 31.1% from three (113th). They’re blocking 4.3 shots per game (75th) and allowing only 72.2 points per contest (159th). The 98.9 defensive rating in live games backs it up—this is a team that makes you earn everything. Against a Marquette offense that already struggles to score efficiently, Butler’s defensive structure should create long possessions and contested shots.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game comes down to whether Marquette can force Butler into the kind of chaotic, turnover-filled track meet that masks efficiency gaps. Butler wants to play in the low 70s possession-wise, execute in the halfcourt, and let their shooting advantage compound over 40 minutes. Marquette needs to push pace closer to 75-76 possessions and create 12-15 Butler turnovers to generate enough transition opportunities.
The rebounding battle matters here. Butler’s pulling down 42.7 boards per game (20th nationally) compared to Marquette’s 38.5 (119th). With Ajayi ranking 4th nationally in rebounding, Butler should control the glass and limit Marquette’s offensive rebounding opportunities. That takes away one of Marquette’s few advantages—their 34.5% offensive rebounding rate.
Watch the three-point line. Butler’s hitting 39.4% from deep while Marquette’s making just 31.3%. If Butler gets hot from outside—and they’re capable of it—this game could get away from Marquette quickly. The Golden Eagles’ perimeter defense has been shaky, allowing 35.3% from three (290th nationally). Butler’s got the shooters to exploit that weakness, especially at home where they’re comfortable.
The total of 160.5 feels about right given Butler’s pace and Marquette’s defensive struggles. Butler’s averaging 87.6 points per game, Marquette’s allowing 76.4. Even if Marquette’s offense sputters, Butler should get to 80-plus at home, which means you need Marquette in the 70s to threaten the over.
Bash’s Best Bet
I’m laying the 7.5 with Butler, and I’m not overthinking it. The efficiency gap is real, the home court advantage matters, and Marquette’s offensive limitations are too glaring to ignore. Butler’s 14.8 adjusted net efficiency compared to Marquette’s 0.8 tells you everything you need to know—that’s a 14-point gap before we even talk about venue.
Marquette’s 1-4 in their last five with the only win coming in a one-point squeaker against Providence. Butler’s got the better roster, the better system, and the better matchup. Ajayi’s dominance on the glass should neutralize Marquette’s offensive rebounding, and Butler’s perimeter shooting will exploit Marquette’s porous three-point defense.
The Pick: Butler -7.5
Give me the Bulldogs to win by double digits at Hinkle. The market’s giving Marquette too much credit for staying competitive in recent losses, and not enough respect to Butler’s two-way excellence. This should be a comfortable home win.
