Minnesota hosts a depleted Golden State squad at Target Center this Sunday. With Jimmy Butler sidelined, Bash breaks down the efficiency gap and provides his top
The Setup: Warriors at Timberwolves
Minnesota is laying 7 points at Target Center against a Warriors team that’s suddenly paper-thin after Jimmy Butler’s season-ending knee injury. Golden State comes in at 25-21 but just 8-14 on the road, and now they’re without two rotation pieces in Butler and Jonathan Kuminga. The Timberwolves sit at 27-18 with a 15-7 home mark, and this line reflects exactly what you’d expect when a depleted road team faces a home squad that’s been solid in its own building. The market sees the talent gap widening with Butler gone, and the question isn’t whether Minnesota should be favored—it’s whether 7 points properly accounts for Golden State’s ability to stay competitive through Stephen Curry’s offensive ceiling.
This spread lives in that middle zone where the favorite is clearly better, but the dog has just enough firepower to keep it close if one player gets nuclear. That’s the Warriors’ entire identity right now. Curry dropped 38 in that Dallas loss, and Golden State still couldn’t cover. The efficiency math matters more than the raw scoring when you’re trying to evaluate whether a short-handed team can hang within a number.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Golden State Warriors (25-21) at Minnesota Timberwolves (27-18)
When: Sunday, January 25, 2026, 5:30 ET
Where: Target Center
Watch: NBA TV
Current Betting Lines (MyBookie.ag):
- Spread: Timberwolves -7.0 (-110) | Warriors +7.0 (-110)
- Moneyline: Timberwolves -286 | Warriors +222
- Total: Over 235.0 (-110) | Under 235.0 (-110)
Why This Line Exists
The market built this 7-point spread around two core realities: Minnesota’s home performance and Golden State’s sudden rotation crisis. The Timberwolves are 15-7 at Target Center, and they’ve got a top-end offensive engine in Anthony Edwards, who’s averaging 29.6 points per game this season. Julius Randle adds another 22.6 points and 7.0 rebounds, giving Minnesota two legitimate scoring threats who can exploit a Warriors defense that’s now scrambling to replace Butler’s two-way contributions.
Golden State’s road struggles tell most of the story here. That 8-14 mark away from home was already concerning before Butler went down, and now they’re asking Buddy Hield, Moses Moody, and Gary Payton to absorb those minutes. The Warriors are 17-7 at home, which shows they can still function in a controlled environment, but road games expose depth issues fast. Curry’s 27.4 points per game keeps them competitive in any matchup, but he needs help—and that help just got significantly thinner.
The 235-point total reflects both teams’ ability to score but also acknowledges that Golden State’s offensive efficiency takes a hit without Butler’s playmaking. He was averaging 20.0 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 4.9 assists before the injury, and those aren’t just empty numbers. That’s secondary creation and defensive versatility that Steve Kerr can’t easily replace with committee minutes.
Golden State Breakdown: What You Need to Know
The Warriors are now a one-star show with supporting actors trying to remember their lines. Curry remains elite—38 points against Dallas proves he can still carry an offensive load—but that game also showed the problem. Golden State lost by 8 and didn’t cover a smaller number than what they’re facing here. When your best player goes supernova and you still can’t stay within the spread, that’s a structural issue.
Brandin Podziemski’s 12.2 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 3.4 assists give Golden State some secondary ball-handling, but he’s not a guy who can create his own shot consistently against playoff-caliber defenses. The Warriors need him to be a connector, not a primary option. With Kuminga also out after leaving that Dallas game, the depth chart gets even shakier. Moses Moody and De’Anthony Melton will see extended run, but neither has shown they can sustain efficient offense over heavy minutes.
The road splits hammer home the concern. Golden State is 8-14 away from home because their margin for error shrinks when they can’t control pace and environment. They need everything to break right—Curry hot, role players hitting open looks, defensive rotations crisp—and that’s a lot to ask from a team that just lost its second-best player for the season.
Minnesota Breakdown: The Other Side
The Timberwolves have the offensive firepower to exploit Golden State’s rotation chaos. Edwards at 29.6 points per game gives them a primary scorer who can attack mismatches all night, and Randle’s 22.6 points and 5.4 assists provide a secondary creation hub that the Warriors will struggle to contain with their current personnel. Jaden McDaniels adds 15.1 points per game, giving Minnesota a third scoring option who can punish smaller defenders.
Minnesota’s 15-7 home record isn’t just about talent—it’s about how they control possessions in their building. They can dictate pace, force turnovers, and get out in transition when the crowd’s behind them. Golden State’s defense, already stretched thin, will have trouble matching that energy over 48 minutes. The Timberwolves don’t need to blow teams out; they just need to maintain steady pressure and let the depth advantage compound over the course of the game.
The recent loss to Chicago—120-115 at home—is worth noting because it shows Minnesota can be vulnerable when opponents get hot from deep and exploit transition opportunities. But that Bulls team had Coby White dropping 22 and Josh Giddey adding 21 off the bench. Golden State doesn’t have that kind of secondary scoring depth right now, which makes Minnesota’s job considerably easier.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game gets decided in the minutes when Curry sits. Golden State’s offensive efficiency craters without him on the floor, and Minnesota has the depth to exploit those stretches ruthlessly. Edwards and Randle can take turns attacking a Warriors bench unit that’s already thin and now missing both Butler and Kuminga. The Timberwolves don’t need to shut down Curry—they just need to survive his minutes and dominate the possessions when he’s resting.
The pace factor matters here too. Minnesota will want to push tempo and force Golden State into longer possessions where their lack of shot creation becomes obvious. The Warriors need to slow this game down, limit transition opportunities, and hope Curry can manufacture enough offense in the halfcourt to keep them within striking distance. But that’s a tall order when you’re asking one player to carry 35-40 minutes of offensive responsibility on the road.
Defensively, Golden State has to find a way to contain Edwards without giving up open looks to Randle and McDaniels. That’s difficult when your rotation is held together with duct tape and hope. Minnesota can exploit mismatches all night, and the Warriors don’t have the personnel to switch everything the way they could when Butler was healthy. The efficiency gap compounds over possessions, and that’s where a 7-point spread starts to look reasonable rather than generous.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m laying the 7 with Minnesota at home. Golden State’s rotation crisis is real, and asking Curry to drag this depleted roster to a cover on the road against a Timberwolves team with multiple scoring threats is too much. The Warriors are 8-14 away from home for a reason, and losing Butler for the season plus Kuminga for this game pushes them past the breaking point. Minnesota’s 15-7 home record reflects a team that takes care of business in its building, and Edwards and Randle give them the offensive firepower to pull away when Golden State’s depth gets exposed.
The main risk is Curry going nuclear and single-handedly keeping this within a possession. He’s capable of 40-point eruptions that defy logic and math. But even when he dropped 38 in Dallas, the Warriors lost by 8. That suggests the structural issues run deeper than one player can solve. Minnesota doesn’t need to dominate—they just need to maintain steady pressure and let the talent gap do the work.
BASH’S BEST BET: Timberwolves -7.0 for 2 units.
This line properly reflects the gap between a healthy home favorite and a road dog missing key rotation pieces. Take the points and trust the depth advantage to show up over 48 minutes.
