Memphis is laying points despite a chaotic rotation missing Ja Morant and Zach Edey. Handicapper Bash evaluates if the Grizzlies’ 9-13 home record is a red flag for your Sunday best bet.
The Setup: Nuggets at Grizzlies
Memphis is laying 3.5 points at home against a Denver team playing without Nikola Jokic, and that number tells you everything about how the market views depth versus star power. The Nuggets are 31-15 overall and actually better on the road at 19-7 than at home, while the Grizzlies sit 18-25 and struggling at 9-13 in FedExForum. This line exists because Denver just beat Milwaukee without Jokic—Julian Strawther dropped 20 in that win—while Memphis gave up 133 points to New Orleans on Friday night despite playing at home. The thesis here is simple: the Grizzlies are getting inflated respect for being the home favorite when their defensive efficiency and rotation depth don’t justify laying nearly a bucket against a Nuggets team that’s proven they can win with Jamal Murray running the show.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Date: Sunday, January 25, 2026
Time: 3:30 ET
Location: FedExForum
TV: Home: FanDuel SN SE | Away: Altitude 2 Sports, NBA League Pass
Current Spread: Memphis Grizzlies -3.5 (-110) | Denver Nuggets +3.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Grizzlies -159 | Nuggets +129
Total: 225.0 (Over/Under -110)
Why This Line Exists
The market set Memphis as a 3.5-point home favorite primarily because Jokic is out—he’s averaging 29.6 points, 12.2 rebounds, and 11.0 assists per game, which represents roughly 50+ points of offensive creation when you account for his assists generating possessions. That’s the kind of absence that typically shifts a line 5-7 points. But Denver’s 19-7 road record suggests they’ve built systems that travel, and Jamal Murray’s 26.0 points and 7.3 assists give them a legitimate primary option who can control pace and initiate offense.
Memphis gets home court credit here, but their 9-13 home record undermines that value significantly. The Grizzlies just allowed Saddiq Bey to score 36 points—19 in the fourth quarter alone—while giving up 133 total to a Pelicans team that erased a double-digit second-half deficit. That’s a defensive efficiency problem that doesn’t get solved overnight. The total at 225.0 reflects uncertainty about Denver’s offensive ceiling without Jokic’s playmaking, but Murray averaging 7.3 assists means the ball movement infrastructure still exists. This number landed at 3.5 because the market respects Denver’s road performance but can’t ignore the Jokic absence.
Nuggets Breakdown: What You Need to Know
Denver’s 19-7 road record is elite-level performance, and it’s built on Murray’s ability to run pick-and-roll efficiently without needing Jokic as the screener. Murray’s 26.0 points per game this season puts him in legitimate All-Star territory, and his 7.3 assists show he’s comfortable orchestrating when Jokic sits. Aaron Gordon is out with a hamstring strain suffered in that Milwaukee game, which removes 17.7 points and 6.2 rebounds from the rotation, but Julian Strawther just showed he can provide scoring punch with 20 points off the bench.
The Nuggets proved they can win short-handed by beating Milwaukee 102-100 on Friday, building a 23-point lead before holding on. That’s road execution against a quality opponent, even if the Bucks are slumping. Denver’s offensive identity shifts without Jokic—they’ll run more traditional pick-and-roll with Murray as the primary ball-handler and lean on transition opportunities. The concern is interior defense and rebounding without Jokic’s 12.2 boards per game, but Memphis doesn’t have the frontcourt depth to exploit that weakness with Zach Edey and Brandon Clarke both out long-term.
Grizzlies Breakdown: The Other Side
Memphis is dealing with rotation chaos that makes laying 3.5 points questionable regardless of opponent. Ja Morant is averaging 19.5 points and 8.1 assists, but he’s now out at least three weeks with an elbow issue. Jaren Jackson Jr. provides 18.9 points and 5.7 rebounds, but he’s not a primary creator—he needs someone to get him the ball in his spots. Cedric Coward has stepped up with 14.0 points and 6.4 rebounds, but asking him to carry offensive creation against Denver’s length is a significant ask.
The Grizzlies’ defensive performance against New Orleans was concerning beyond just the final score. They allowed Trey Murphy III to score 32 points and couldn’t contain Zion Williamson’s 24 points in a game where they blew a double-digit second-half lead. That’s not a one-game aberration—their 9-13 home record suggests they struggle to defend consistently in FedExForum. Ty Jerome is working back from a calf strain and could potentially debut soon, but there’s no confirmation he’s available for Sunday. Without Morant’s penetration and with Edey out for at least six more weeks, Memphis lacks the interior presence to control the paint or dominate the glass.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game gets decided by which team can execute half-court offense more efficiently when the pace slows down. Denver without Jokic loses their most efficient offensive hub, but Murray’s 7.3 assists mean they can still generate quality looks through pick-and-roll action. Memphis without Morant loses their primary penetrator, which forces them to rely more heavily on Jackson’s post-ups and Coward’s perimeter creation. That’s a significant downgrade in offensive versatility.
The rebounding battle matters here because neither team has dominant interior presence available. Denver loses Jokic’s 12.2 rebounds and Gordon’s 6.2 boards, while Memphis is without Edey and Clarke. That creates more possessions available through offensive rebounds, but it also means both teams will struggle to secure defensive boards consistently. In a game projected at 225.0 total points, that’s roughly 105-110 possessions depending on pace. Extra possessions through offensive rebounds could swing a 3.5-point spread significantly.
Denver’s advantage is experience executing on the road without their best player—they just proved they can do it in Milwaukee. Memphis is trying to figure out rotations on the fly with multiple key contributors sidelined. The Grizzlies allowed 133 points at home on Friday, which suggests their defensive schemes aren’t holding up under the current roster construction. Murray can control pace, limit turnovers, and get Denver quality looks in the mid-range and from three. Memphis needs Jackson to dominate inside and Coward to provide secondary creation, but that’s asking a lot against a Denver team that’s battle-tested on the road.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
The value is on Denver getting 3.5 points on the road. Memphis is being overvalued as a home favorite when their 9-13 home record and recent defensive performance—133 points allowed to New Orleans—suggest they can’t be trusted laying points. Denver’s 19-7 road record is legitimate, and Murray’s ability to orchestrate offense without Jokic was proven in Milwaukee just two days ago. The Grizzlies are without Morant, which removes their most dynamic offensive weapon, and they’re relying on Jackson and Coward to carry creation against a Nuggets team that travels well.
The main risk is Denver’s frontcourt depth without Jokic and Gordon—if Memphis can dominate the paint and control the glass, they could pull away late. But with Edey and Clarke both out long-term, Memphis doesn’t have the personnel to exploit that advantage consistently. This line should be closer to pick’em based on how both teams are constructed right now. Getting nearly a bucket with the better road team is the right side.
BASH’S BEST BET: Nuggets +3.5 for 2 units.
Denver has shown they can win without their best player. Memphis is still figuring out how to function without theirs. That’s the difference in a tight spread, and the Nuggets cover this number straight up if Murray controls the game the way he’s capable of doing.
