It’s a matchup of the A-10’s elite big men as Robbie Avila leads #21 Saint Louis against Rafael Castro and the Revolutionaries. Our handicapping guide looks at the key trends and the free pick for tonight’s game where the winner takes a firm grip on the conference standings.
The Setup: George Washington at Saint Louis
Saint Louis is laying 9.5 at home against George Washington, and this number tells a story about two teams that can absolutely fill it up. We’re talking about the 13th and 14th ranked offenses nationally in scoring—both teams averaging over 91 points per game. But here’s where it gets interesting: one of these teams actually plays defense, and one is just hoping you miss. According to collegebasketballdata.com, Saint Louis ranks 29th in adjusted defensive efficiency at 98.2, while George Washington checks in at a ghastly 308th in defensive rating at 115.0. That’s not a typo. The Colonials are elite offensively with an adjusted offensive efficiency of 119.6 (#25), but they’re giving it all back on the other end. The Billikens have the efficiency profile of a team that should be laying double digits at home, but the market is respecting GW’s firepower just enough to keep this under two possessions.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Matchup: George Washington @ Saint Louis
Date: January 27, 2026
Time: 8:00 PM ET
Venue: Chaifetz Arena, St. Louis, MO
Records: George Washington (8-2) | Saint Louis (8-1)
Point Spread: Saint Louis -9.5
Total: 167.5 / 168
Moneyline: Saint Louis -650 | George Washington +450
Why This Number Makes Sense (or Doesn’t)
The market landed at 9.5 because it’s trying to reconcile two competing narratives. On one hand, Saint Louis has an adjusted net efficiency of +18.9 (#22 nationally) compared to George Washington’s +16.5 (#31). That three-point gap in adjusted efficiency typically translates to somewhere between 7-10 points on a neutral court, and we’re adding home court advantage here. The Billikens play at the 17th fastest pace nationally at 74.8 possessions per game, while George Washington crawls at 66.0 (#269). That pace differential matters enormously in this matchup because Saint Louis thrives in transition—they’ve scored 185 fast break points compared to GW’s 130.
But here’s the wrinkle: George Washington’s offensive efficiency is legitimate. They rank 10th nationally in offensive rating at 138.1 with a true shooting percentage of 63.7% (#12). They’re shooting 51.2% from the field (#22) and getting to the line effectively. The problem is they can’t stop anyone. Opponent field goal percentage of 43.9% ranks 206th nationally, and that defensive rating of 115.0 is borderline catastrophic. Saint Louis, meanwhile, holds opponents to just 37.2% shooting (#12 nationally) and 28.1% from three (#34). The nine and a half reflects the market’s belief that even George Washington’s elite offense will struggle against Saint Louis’s defensive structure, but not enough to push this into blowout territory.
George Washington Breakdown: The Analytical Edge
The Colonials are a fascinating offensive machine built around efficiency and execution. That 58.8% effective field goal percentage ranks 20th nationally, and they’re doing it without relying on one dominant scorer. Rafael Castro leads at 16.1 points per game with 7.6 rebounds, but the offense flows through balance—five players averaging double figures. Garrett Johnson (14.9 PPG) and Christian Jones (11.6 PPG, 3.0 APG) give them multiple creators.
The real strength is their ability to generate quality shots. They’ve scored 404 points in the paint despite playing at a glacial pace, which tells you they’re getting to their spots in the halfcourt. The 76.5% free throw shooting (#41) means they can capitalize when they get fouled. But those turnovers—12.9 per game with a turnover ratio ranking 228th—are killers against a team like Saint Louis that forces mistakes and converts them. George Washington has scored 153 points off turnovers, but they’re about to face a defense that’s going to flip that script.
Saint Louis Breakdown: The Counterpoint
The Billikens are riding a five-game win streak, and the efficiency metrics explain why they’re one of the A-10’s elite teams. That adjusted defensive efficiency of 98.2 (#29) is top-30 nationally, and they’re suffocating opponents with length and activity. Holding teams to 37.2% shooting isn’t luck—it’s scheme and execution. They rank 11th nationally in rebounding at 43.4 per game, which means they’re ending possessions definitively.
Offensively, they’re more balanced than explosive, but that’s by design. Robbie Avila (12.4 PPG, 3.4 APG) operates as a point-center, and the guard play is deep with Dion Brown, Trey Green, Amari McCottry, and Quentin Jones all averaging between 10.8 and 12.4 points. They assist on 17.7 buckets per game (#39), which shows ball movement and unselfishness. The concern is turnovers—14.2 per game ranks 311th nationally—but they’re winning because their defense is so stout that they can survive their own mistakes. That 81.3% free throw shooting leads the nation, which matters late in close games.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game comes down to one simple question: Can George Washington score efficiently enough against an elite defense to keep pace with Saint Louis’s balanced attack? The pace battle favors the Billikens significantly. They want to push tempo at 74.8 possessions, and George Washington wants to slow it down to 66.0. At home, Saint Louis will dictate terms, which means more possessions and more opportunities to exploit GW’s defensive weaknesses.
The rebounding edge is massive. Saint Louis ranks 11th nationally at 43.4 boards per game compared to George Washington’s 38.7 (#106). That’s nearly five extra possessions per game, and in a faster-paced environment, those extra chances become points. George Washington’s offensive rebounding percentage of 30.5% (#204) won’t generate enough second chances to compensate.
Defensively, this is where Saint Louis pulls away. George Washington’s 115.0 defensive rating means they’re allowing 15 points per 100 possessions more than an average team. Against a Saint Louis squad that can score in transition, in the halfcourt, and from multiple positions, that defensive deficiency becomes insurmountable. The Billikens have scored 185 fast break points—they’re going to run every chance they get, and George Washington doesn’t have the defensive discipline to stop the bleeding.
Bash’s Best Bet
I’m laying the 9.5 with Saint Louis, and I’m not overthinking this. George Washington can score, but they can’t guard anyone, and that’s a fatal flaw against a team that plays this fast and this efficiently. The pace differential alone should generate enough extra possessions for Saint Louis to cover comfortably. The Billikens are 8-1 for a reason—they defend at an elite level and they rebound like a top-15 team. George Washington’s three losses this season came against George Mason, Davidson, and Dayton—all teams that could exploit their defensive weaknesses. Saint Louis is better than all three.
The adjusted efficiency gap is real, the pace advantage is decisive, and the home court at Chaifetz Arena matters. Give me Saint Louis -9.5, and I expect them to win this one by 12-15.
