RBD recaps the NFC Championship fallout and transitions into NBA betting picks, systems results, and hard-earned lessons.
Let me start by saying that if the Seattle Seahawks lost in the NFC Championship Game, the picture accompanying this article would be a photoshop of Seattle’s Tariq Woolen – wearing a Rams jersey!
On a three play sequence late in the third quarter, Woolen managed to:
1) drop an easy interception which prompted Brady to say, “That’s why he’s a defensive back and not a wide receiver.”
2) get hit with a taunting penalty that took the Rams out of a punting situation and gave them a first down
3) gave up a touchdown to Nacua
Dropping the INT and giving up the TD are part of the game; sh*t happens.
But the taunting penalty was ridiculous and moronic.
And could have caused his team to lose the game.
I’m guessing his scholarship wasn’t academic.
Seattle held on for the win and my record for NFL article picks ends at 17-8 68%, as I have no recommended bets for the Super Bowl.
But . . .
GO HAWKS!!!
NBA Recap
With the football season all but over, and my schedule back to normal, I’ll be making more basketball picks.
I missed with the last article pick I gave out.
Sometimes digging deeper into the stats steers you away from a play.
I had a game circled on my calendar – Fade Sacramento the next time they’re playing in game two of B2B’s.
Instead of just making the play on the strong percentages I had, I decided to dig a little deeper, and I saw the Toronto was 0-4 SU when they were also playing in game two game of B2B’s.
So I talked myself off of the play and went with a total instead.
Ten of Toronto’s last 13 games on the Rd had stayed Under the total, and when on the road and in game two of B2B’s their PPG average on offense goes down to just 99.
So I used Toronto’s team total under 116′.
The Raptors had quarters of 26, 26, and 27, a combined 79 points.
The Sacramento Kings could give up 37 points in the remaining quarter and I’d STILL get a win.
They gave up 43.
So, 26, 26, 27, and . . . 43.
Rat bastards!
I lost on the play I made, and missed out on a play I should have banked as Toronto easily covered.
I’ve already marked my calendar and won’t make the same mistake twice.
I’ll be fading Toronto AND Sacramento the next time I spot them in game two of B2B’s.
Forum Plays & Current Form
I nailed my last two forum NBA plays though, including last night’s asterisk spot play on Charlotte -2′.
Final score, Charlotte 130, Philadelphia 93.
Covered by 34 points.
NEXT!
NBA record combined, articles and forum, sitting at 7-5 now.
I had two asterisk spots last night, shared both of them in the forum.
They both covered, but I only used one.
The record for that spot is now 2-5, good for a 71% Fade.
I have one tonight, Fading Brooklyn, but not sure I want to lay -8′ points with Phoenix.
I’ll take a closer look at the game and follow the line throughout the day.
If I add it to my card I’ll post it in the forum.
System Play on the Total
I did make one buy this morning, based on both of the systems I use for picking totals.
T1 says take the Brook/Phx game Under.
T2 says take the Brook/Phx game Over.
T1 has a losing record on Unders.
It’s a slight edge at 51%, not playable enough on its own based on that number.
But . . .
T2 has a record of 26-18 on Overs.
That’s a 59% edge.
And anything over 58% catches my eye.
The game opened at 212′.
You can get it at one of our sponsors right now at 210.
Four of Brooklyn’s last five games have gone Over the total, and four of those five have also gone Over the number the books are giving on tonight’s game.
Only two of Phoenix’s last five games have gone Over, but four of them were Over the total on tonight’s game.
They’ve met once this season.
They combined for 243.
‘Nuff said.
My play:
Brook/Phx Ov (wait to buy; the total is dropping)
