St. John’s has rattled off five straight wins, but is the market overvaluing the Red Storm against a gritty Butler squad? Our CBB Picks investigate the double-digit line and whether the Bulldogs’ elite rebounding specialist, Michael Ajayi, can keep this within the number.
The Setup: Butler at St. John’s
St. John’s is laying 12.5 points at home against Butler, and honestly? The market’s telling you exactly what you need to know about where these two Big East programs stand right now. The Red Storm have rattled off five straight wins and are playing their most complete basketball of the season, while Butler limps into Carnesecca Arena having dropped two of their last three. When you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com efficiency numbers, this spread isn’t some market overreaction—it’s a reflection of a legitimate talent and execution gap that’s widened over the past three weeks.
St. John’s sits at #22 nationally in adjusted net efficiency with a mark of 18.9, while Butler checks in at #42 with 14.8. That four-point difference in adjusted net might not sound massive, but in a conference game between two teams trending in opposite directions, it’s the foundation for a double-digit spread. The Johnnies are defending at an elite level right now—#27 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency at 97.6—and they’re doing it while pushing tempo at the 21st-fastest pace in the country. Butler’s been solid defensively themselves (#66 in adjusted defensive efficiency at 102.2), but they haven’t faced this combination of speed and defensive pressure in their recent wins.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Matchup: Butler (7-2) @ St. John’s (5-3)
Date: January 28, 2026
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Venue: Carnesecca Arena, Queens, NY
Spread: St. John’s -12.5
Total: 162-162.5
Moneyline: St. John’s -750 to -900, Butler +525 to +575
Why This Number Makes Sense (or Doesn’t)
Let’s start with what the market’s pricing in: a St. John’s team that’s found its identity on both ends of the floor against a Butler squad that’s still figuring out how to win away from Hinkle Fieldhouse. The 12.5-point spread translates to roughly a 13-14 point efficiency edge when you account for home court, and that’s almost exactly what the adjusted numbers suggest when you factor in St. John’s defensive advantage.
The total sitting at 162-162.5 is the more interesting conversation. Both teams rank in the top 60 nationally in pace—St. John’s at 74.4 possessions per game (#21) and Butler at 72.9 (#46). Both teams can score—the Bulldogs put up 87.6 PPG (#39) while the Red Storm average 88.6 (#28). But here’s the thing: St. John’s has been suffocating lately on defense, and Butler’s offensive efficiency drops when they face elite defensive units. The Red Storm are holding opponents to 41.1% from the field (#88 nationally) and 31.1% from three (#113). When you’re facing that kind of perimeter defense in a hostile road environment, your 39.4% three-point shooting (#21 nationally) becomes a lot harder to maintain.
The market’s essentially saying this: St. John’s wins comfortably, but the pace and Butler’s offensive capability keep it from becoming a total blowout. I think that’s a fair assessment, but I also think there’s value in how we attack this number.
Butler Breakdown: The Analytical Edge
Butler’s got two things working in their favor: elite three-point shooting and Michael Ajayi. The Bulldogs are connecting on 39.4% from deep, which ranks 21st nationally, and their 56.5% effective field goal percentage (#55) tells you they’re getting quality looks. Finley Bizjack is averaging 18.0 PPG and provides legitimate shot-making on the perimeter, while Ajayi is putting up an absurd 16.2 PPG and 11.6 RPG—that rebounding number ranks 4th nationally among all players. That’s not a typo. The kid’s a monster on the glass.
The problem? Butler’s 7-2 record is built largely on home cooking. They’re 46th nationally in pace, so they can control tempo when they need to, but their 102.2 adjusted defensive efficiency (#66) suggests they struggle when opponents can dictate terms. Their free throw shooting is a legitimate concern too—65.6% from the line ranks 322nd nationally. You can’t leave points at the stripe in a hostile Big East road environment and expect to cover double digits.
St. John’s Breakdown: The Counterpoint
St. John’s is playing with house money right now, riding a five-game winning streak that includes road wins at Xavier, Villanova, and Creighton. That’s legitimate résumé-building stuff. The Red Storm’s identity is clear: they’re going to pressure you defensively, crash the offensive glass (36.8% offensive rebounding rate ranks 18th nationally), and push pace in transition. They’re averaging 173 fast break points through eight games, which leads to easy buckets before defenses can set.
Zuby Ejiofor and Bryce Hopkins give Rick Pitino two versatile forwards who can score inside and facilitate—both averaging 15-plus PPG and contributing nearly 3 APG. Dillon Mitchell is pulling down 6.5 boards per game while chipping in 10.5 PPG. The depth is real, and the defensive intensity is suffocating. That 97.6 adjusted defensive efficiency (#27 nationally) isn’t a fluke—it’s a reflection of Pitino’s system taking root.
The concern? St. John’s isn’t a great three-point shooting team (33.0%, #202 nationally), and their 53.6% effective field goal percentage (#124) suggests they can go cold from the field. If Butler’s defense can force them into half-court sets and limit transition opportunities, this number could tighten up.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game comes down to one critical factor: Can Butler handle St. John’s defensive pressure and offensive rebounding assault? The Red Storm rank 18th nationally in offensive rebounding rate at 36.8%, while Butler sits at 114th with 33.1%. That’s a massive gap, and it’s going to lead to extra possessions for the home team. When you combine that with St. John’s forcing 8.8 steals per game (#64 nationally) and blocking 5.1 shots (#26), you’re looking at a defense that creates chaos.
Butler’s going to try to slow this down and hunt three-pointers. They’re 21st nationally in three-point percentage, and if Bizjack and company get hot early, they can make St. John’s uncomfortable. But here’s the reality: the Bulldogs are turning it over 12.7 times per game (#220 nationally), and against a ball-hawking St. John’s defense in a hostile road environment, I expect that number to tick up. The Red Storm are going to live in transition, and Butler’s going to have to execute in the half-court to keep pace.
The head-to-head history matters here too. St. John’s beat Butler 84-70 earlier this season, and they’ve won four of the last five meetings. Butler knows what’s coming—they just haven’t shown they can stop it.
Bash’s Best Bet
I’m riding with St. John’s -12.5. Look, I get the hesitation. Laying double digits in a conference game always feels dicey. But this Red Storm team is playing at a different level right now, and Butler’s got real issues defending the glass and handling pressure. St. John’s is going to create extra possessions through offensive rebounds and turnovers, and that’s going to be the difference between a 9-point win and a 15-point win.
The adjusted efficiency gap is real, the home court advantage is significant, and Butler’s still searching for a road identity. Give me the Red Storm to cover at home in what should be a comfortable double-digit victory. St. John’s 89, Butler 74.
