Toronto is riding a four-game heater, yet the market is only giving them 2 points against a New York team that can’t seem to win outside of Manhattan. Our NBA Picks investigate if the “Knicks on the Road” trend is the most profitable angle on Wednesday’s slate.
The Setup: Knicks at Raptors
The Knicks are getting 2 points in Toronto on Wednesday night, and that’s a number that tells you everything about how these teams have operated this season. New York sits 28-18 overall but carries a 9-12 road record that’s been a legitimate liability. Toronto checks in at 29-19 with a 13-10 home mark that’s solid but not overwhelming. The line respects the Knicks’ talent—Jalen Brunson averaging 28 points per game, Karl-Anthony Towns putting up a double-double nightly—but it also respects the reality that New York hasn’t figured out how to travel. Toronto’s riding a four-game win streak that includes a road upset over Oklahoma City, and they’re getting healthier rotation pieces back at the right time. This spread lives at 2 because the market knows the Knicks can win this game, but it also knows they’ve been inconsistent away from Madison Square Garden all season.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Date: Wednesday, January 28, 2026
Time: 7:30 ET
Venue: Scotiabank Arena
TV: Home: Sportsnet | Away: MSG, NBA League Pass
Current Odds (MyBookie.ag):
Spread: Knicks +2.0 (-110) | Raptors -2.0 (-110)
Moneyline: Knicks +108 | Raptors -132
Total: 224.5 (Over/Under -110)
Why This Line Exists
This 2-point spread is the market’s way of saying the Knicks have the better top-end talent, but Toronto has the situational edge. New York’s 18-6 home record versus their 9-12 road mark is a nine-game swing in win percentage, and that’s not noise—that’s a pattern. The Raptors are 16-9 on the road but just 13-10 at home, which is unusual, but they’ve won four straight and just knocked off the league’s best team in Oklahoma City. The total at 224.5 reflects two teams that can score—Brunson at 28 per game, Brandon Ingram at 21.5, Scottie Barnes at 19.5—but also two teams dealing with rotation uncertainty. Toronto’s missing Jakob Poeltl, their starting center who’s been out since December 21 with a back injury, and Chucky Hepburn, who was putting up 12.8 points and 9.2 assists across 11 games before going down. That’s two rotation pieces that impact both pace and efficiency, and Collin Murray-Boyles is questionable after missing four straight. The line respects New York’s firepower but doesn’t trust their road execution, and it respects Toronto’s home floor without overvaluing it given their middling home record.
Knicks Breakdown: What You Need to Know
The Knicks are built around Brunson’s 28 points and 6 assists per game, and when he’s controlling pace and getting downhill, they’re dangerous. Towns gives them 20.5 points and 11.4 rebounds nightly, and that’s a legitimate second star who can stretch the floor and punish smaller lineups in the paint. Mikal Bridges at 15.7 points and 4.2 assists provides the third scoring option and defensive versatility. They just beat Sacramento 103-87 at home, dominating the fourth quarter, and they’ve won three straight. But here’s the problem: that 9-12 road record isn’t about bad luck. New York’s offense runs through Brunson’s pick-and-roll execution, and when they’re away from home, the rhythm gets disrupted. Towns can be inconsistent on the glass against physical frontcourts, and without Poeltl in the middle for Toronto, you’d think that’s an advantage—but the Knicks have struggled to impose their will on the road regardless of matchup. Their recent win over Sacramento was at home, and their road splits suggest they don’t travel well even when healthy.
Raptors Breakdown: The Other Side
Toronto’s getting contributions from multiple sources, and that’s why they’re 29-19 despite missing key rotation pieces. Ingram at 21.5 points per game gives them a primary scorer who can create his own shot, and Barnes at 19.5 points, 8.3 rebounds, and 5.6 assists is the do-everything forward who impacts winning in multiple ways. RJ Barrett at 19 points per game provides a third option who can attack closeouts and get to the rim. The problem is depth. Poeltl’s been out since late December, and he was their anchor in the paint. Hepburn’s absence removes a facilitator who was averaging 9.2 assists and 2.4 steals, which impacts both pace and defensive pressure. Murray-Boyles is questionable after missing four games, and if he can’t go, Toronto’s frontcourt rotation gets even thinner. But they just beat Oklahoma City on the road behind Immanuel Quickley’s 23 points and 11 rebounds, and that’s a statement win that shows they can execute in big spots. Their 13-10 home record isn’t dominant, but they’re 16-9 on the road, which tells you they’re comfortable in hostile environments and don’t need home cooking to compete.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game comes down to whether the Knicks can solve their road execution issues against a Raptors team that’s dealing with rotation depth problems but riding momentum. New York’s offense runs through Brunson’s ability to control pace and get Towns involved in pick-and-roll and post-up situations. Toronto’s missing Poeltl in the paint, which should theoretically open up more scoring opportunities for Towns and Brunson in the restricted area. But the Raptors are getting balanced scoring from Ingram, Barnes, and Barrett, and that three-headed attack can exploit the Knicks’ perimeter defense if Bridges gets stretched thin. The total at 224.5 assumes both teams can score, but with Toronto missing Hepburn’s playmaking and New York’s road struggles impacting offensive rhythm, the pace might slow down more than expected. The Knicks are 9-12 on the road for a reason—they don’t execute in hostile environments the way they do at home. Toronto’s 13-10 at home isn’t elite, but they just knocked off Oklahoma City and they’re getting healthier. The spread at 2 is narrow enough that the Knicks’ talent keeps them in the game, but it’s wide enough that Toronto’s situational edge and momentum matter.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m backing the Raptors at -2 at home. The Knicks’ 9-12 road record isn’t a fluke—it’s a pattern that shows they struggle to execute away from Madison Square Garden. Toronto’s dealing with injuries, but they just beat the league’s best team on the road and they’re getting contributions from multiple sources. Ingram, Barnes, and Barrett give them three guys who can score 19-plus per game, and that balanced attack is tough to defend when the Knicks are already dealing with road execution issues. The risk here is that Towns dominates the paint with Poeltl out and the Knicks’ talent overcomes their road struggles, but I’m trusting the pattern over the potential. New York hasn’t shown they can consistently win on the road, and Toronto’s riding momentum with a home crowd behind them. This line should be closer to 3 or 3.5 based on the situational edge, and getting Toronto at -2 feels like value given the Knicks’ road splits.
BASH’S BEST BET: Raptors -2 for 2 units.
