Iowa is laying a double-digit number at home, but the market might be sleeping on USC’s explosive scoring trio of Chad Baker-Mazara, Rodney Rice, and Ezra Ausar. Our CBB Picks investigate whether the Hawkeyes’ glacial pace is enough to keep the Trojans from covering this massive number.
The Setup: USC at Iowa
Iowa’s laying 9.5 at Carver-Hawkeye Arena against USC, and on the surface, this looks like a classic Big Ten grind-it-out spot. But here’s the thing—these teams couldn’t be more different in how they operate, and that’s exactly what makes this number fascinating. The Hawkeyes are crawling at a 58.3 pace (358th nationally), while USC pushes it at 69.6 (143rd). When you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com efficiency numbers, Iowa’s got the 27th-ranked adjusted offense paired with an 85th-ranked adjusted defense. USC? They’re 28th offensively but 137th defensively. That’s the ballgame right there—two elite offenses, but Iowa’s got the defensive chops to actually get stops when they need them.
The Trojans come in at 8-1, same as Iowa, but they’ve been leaking oil defensively. They’re allowing 78.2 points per game (278th nationally), and while their offensive firepower can mask problems against lesser competition, Carver-Hawkeye is a different animal. Iowa’s defense ranks 12th in opponent points allowed at 62.6 per game. This spread is telling us the market believes Iowa can control tempo AND execute in the halfcourt. Let’s see if that’s right.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Matchup: USC at Iowa
Date: January 28, 2026
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Venue: Carver-Hawkeye Arena, Iowa City, IA
Spread: Iowa -9.5
Total: 141/141.5
Moneyline: Iowa -675, USC +460
Why This Number Makes Sense (or Doesn’t)
The 9.5-point spread is Iowa saying, “We’re going to slow you down, and you can’t stop us.” And the efficiency data backs it up. Iowa’s 137.0 offensive rating ranks 12th nationally—they’re an absolute machine in the halfcourt. Their 51.7% field goal percentage (17th) and 59.4% effective field goal percentage (14th) tell you they’re not hunting bad shots. They’re getting quality looks and converting at an elite level.
USC’s adjusted defensive efficiency of 105.8 (137th) is the red flag here. They block shots—6.6 per game ranks 5th nationally—but they’re not consistently getting stops. Their opponent field goal percentage is 41.6% (106th), which sounds decent until you realize Iowa’s shooting 51.7% from the floor. The Hawkeyes aren’t going to settle for contested jumpers; they’re going to dissect you in the halfcourt.
The total sitting at 141/141.5 is where this gets interesting. Iowa’s pace is glacial—358th nationally at 58.3 possessions per game. USC wants to push, but they’re not going to dictate tempo in a hostile road environment against a team that’s built to control the game. The math here suggests somewhere around 70-75 possessions, which means both teams need to be hyper-efficient. Iowa’s proven they can be. USC’s got the offensive firepower with an adjusted offensive efficiency of 118.9 (28th), but can they get enough stops? That’s the million-dollar question.
USC Breakdown: The Analytical Edge
The Trojans can flat-out score. Chad Baker-Mazara is dropping 20.9 points per game (18th nationally), and Rodney Rice is right behind him at 20.3 (28th) while dishing 6.0 assists per game (24th). That’s a legitimate one-two punch that can hurt you in multiple ways. Ezra Ausar adds another 15.9 points per game, giving USC three legitimate scoring threats.
Their offensive efficiency numbers are legit—119.4 offensive rating (79th) with a 59.7% true shooting percentage (68th). They’re shooting 37.8% from three (36th nationally), and they’ve got the spacing to punish you if you overcommit to the paint. The problem? They’re 278th in opponent points allowed at 78.2 per game. That’s not a typo. They’re giving up buckets in bunches, and their 105.2 defensive rating (171st) confirms they’re not built to win defensive slugfests.
USC’s last five games tell the story—they’re 3-2, but those wins came by two points, 17 points, and one point. The losses? Northwestern and Purdue both exposed their defensive limitations. When they can’t outscore you, they’re in trouble.
Iowa Breakdown: The Counterpoint
Iowa’s identity is simple: suffocating defense and surgical offense. They’re holding opponents to 62.6 points per game (12th nationally) and forcing 10.0 turnovers per game while only coughing it up 10.0 times themselves. Their 103.0 adjusted defensive efficiency (85th) is significantly better than USC’s, and that gap matters in a game like this.
Offensively, Bennett Stirtz is the engine at 18.8 points and 4.9 assists per game. The Hawkeyes don’t have USC’s star power—their second-leading scorer is Cooper Koch at just 8.8 points per game—but they don’t need it. Their 63.7% true shooting percentage ranks 12th nationally because they’re getting great shots. That 51.7% field goal percentage (17th) is elite, and it’s a product of patience and execution.
The concern? Iowa’s rebounding is abysmal. They’re 353rd in rebounds per game at 30.0, and their offensive rebounding percentage of 28.9% ranks 267th. USC’s not great on the glass either (156th in offensive rebounding percentage), but if the Trojans can generate second-chance opportunities, they’ve got the firepower to capitalize.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game lives and dies on tempo and defensive execution. Iowa’s going to slow this thing to a crawl, and USC’s going to have to win in the halfcourt. The Trojans score 110 fast break points compared to Iowa’s 73, but they’re not getting those transition opportunities in Carver-Hawkeye when Iowa’s controlling pace.
The real battleground is USC’s perimeter defense versus Iowa’s halfcourt execution. The Hawkeyes don’t turn it over—10.0 turnovers per game ranks 37th—so USC can’t rely on points off turnovers (135 for USC versus 198 for Iowa). The Trojans block shots at an elite level (5th nationally), but Iowa’s not hunting rim attacks against length. They’re going to pick you apart with ball movement and precision.
USC’s 29.4% opponent three-point percentage (59th) is solid, but Iowa’s shooting 37.7% from deep (41st). If the Hawkeyes get clean looks from three in their halfcourt sets, they’re going to knock them down. And defensively, Iowa’s 31.5% opponent three-point percentage (133rd) is vulnerable, which gives USC’s 37.8% three-point shooting (36th) a chance to keep this competitive.
The adjusted efficiency gap tells the story: Iowa’s 16.2 adjusted net efficiency ranks 34th nationally. USC’s 13.1 ranks 52nd. That’s not a massive gap, but in a controlled environment where Iowa dictates pace, that difference gets magnified.
Bash’s Best Bet
I’m laying the 9.5 with Iowa. This is about matchup dynamics and home-court advantage in a building where Iowa controls everything. USC’s defensive rating of 105.2 (171st) isn’t built to handle Iowa’s halfcourt precision, and the Hawkeyes’ 103.0 adjusted defensive efficiency (85th) is good enough to make the Trojans work for every bucket.
The pace factor is critical here. USC wants to run, but Iowa’s going to force them into 25-second possessions and make them execute against a set defense. The Trojans have the offensive talent to score in the halfcourt, but they’re not built to get consistent stops. Iowa is. When you’ve got an elite offense (12th in offensive rating) paired with a defense that ranks 12th in opponent points allowed, and you’re playing at home at a snail’s pace, 9.5 points isn’t asking too much.
USC’s last five games show they’re vulnerable—three wins by a combined four points. Iowa’s got the defensive identity and home-court edge to pull away late. Iowa -9.5. Lock it in.
