Illinois is laying a massive double-digit number at home, but is the market overestimating an Illini squad that hasn’t forced many turnovers this season? Our CBB Picks investigate whether the Washington Huskies—fresh off a win over Oregon—can use their physicality and Steinbach’s double-double prowess to play spoiler in Champaign.
The Setup: Washington at Illinois
Illinois is laying 12.5 to 13 points against Washington at State Farm Center, and if you’re wondering whether the Illini can cover that number against a physical Washington squad, the efficiency data tells you everything you need to know. Illinois sits at #5 nationally in adjusted net rating at 26.1, with an adjusted offensive efficiency of 126.0 that ranks third in the country according to collegebasketballdata.com. Washington checks in at #69 with a 10.4 adjusted net rating. That’s not a gap—that’s a canyon. The Huskies are 1-3 in their last four games, and they’re walking into Champaign to face an Illinois team riding a five-game win streak that includes a road victory at Purdue. This spread isn’t disrespecting Washington. It’s accurately pricing what happens when a top-five efficiency team plays at home against a squad that’s been bleeding points in Big Ten play.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game: Washington @ Illinois
Date: January 29, 2026
Time: 9:00 PM ET
Location: State Farm Center, Champaign, IL
Spread: Illinois -12.5 (DraftKings) / -13 (Bovada)
Total: 153.5
Moneyline: Not Available
Why This Number Makes Sense (or Doesn’t)
Let’s break down why we’re looking at a double-digit spread here. Illinois posts an offensive rating of 142.0 that ranks 8th nationally, while Washington sits at 115.6, good for #126. That’s a 26.4-point gap in offensive efficiency per 100 possessions. On the defensive side, Illinois holds opponents to a 99.8 adjusted defensive rating (#40), while Washington’s 101.2 (#51) is respectable but not elite. The market is pricing in a 12.5 to 13-point margin because when you combine Illinois’s elite offense with home court advantage against a Washington team that’s struggled defensively on the road, the math supports it.
The total of 153.5 deserves attention too. Illinois plays at a 62.3 pace (#330), which is glacial. Washington isn’t much faster at 67.4 (#222). When Illinois controls tempo, they grind you down in the halfcourt and make you execute in the paint against Tomislav Ivisic’s 5.6 blocks per game (#16 nationally). Even with both teams capable of scoring—Illinois at 88.7 PPG (#27) and Washington at 82.4 (#97)—the pace factor suggests this total might be a touch high. But Illinois’s offensive firepower has a way of pushing games over even at slow tempos.
Washington Breakdown: The Analytical Edge
Washington’s strength is on the glass. They pull down 41.4 rebounds per game (#39) with an offensive rebounding percentage of 34.3% (#81). Hannes Steinbach is a monster at 18.5 points and 12.8 boards per game—that rebounding number ranks second nationally. The Huskies also defend the rim effectively with 4.3 blocks per game (#75) and hold opponents to 41.3% shooting (#96). That’s a solid defensive foundation.
But here’s where it falls apart: Washington’s offensive execution is mediocre. They shoot just 44.6% from the field (#219) with an effective field goal percentage of 50.4% (#251). They’re not creating easy looks, averaging only 13.4 assists per game (#242), and their true shooting percentage of 55.6% (#191) tells you they’re not efficient scorers. Wesley Yates III and Zoom Diallo provide secondary scoring, but this offense relies too heavily on Steinbach grinding in the paint. Against Illinois’s rim protection, that’s a problem.
Illinois Breakdown: The Counterpoint
Illinois is rolling right now, winners of five straight including road victories at Purdue and Iowa. The Illini rank 15th nationally in rebounding at 43.1 per game and third in adjusted offensive efficiency at 126.0. Kylan Boswell runs the show at 17.0 points and 3.8 assists, while Andrej Stojakovic provides perimeter scoring at 14.9 PPG. David Mirkovic is a matchup nightmare at 13.8 points and 9.6 rebounds (#28 nationally), giving Illinois versatility in the frontcourt.
The concern? Illinois’s defensive rating of 111.6 ranks just #264 nationally. They’ve allowed 82 points to Purdue, 70 to Maryland, and 69 to Iowa in recent games. Washington can score—they put up 81 against Ohio State in their last win—and if Steinbach gets rolling on the offensive glass, the Huskies can hang around. Illinois also doesn’t force turnovers, averaging just 4.4 steals per game (#356). They need to control this game in the halfcourt, not with transition defense.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game comes down to one simple question: Can Washington execute in the halfcourt against Illinois’s size and rim protection? The Huskies don’t push pace—they rank #222 in tempo—and Illinois will gladly slow this into a possession-by-possession battle. When that happens, Illinois’s 48.1% field goal shooting (#71) and 55.6% effective field goal percentage (#71) will overwhelm Washington’s 44.6% shooting.
The rebounding battle matters. Washington’s 34.3% offensive rebounding rate could create second-chance opportunities, but Illinois counters with Ivisic’s shot-blocking and Mirkovic’s physicality. If Illinois controls the defensive glass and limits Washington to one shot per possession, the Huskies don’t have the offensive firepower to keep pace.
Turnovers could swing this. Illinois takes care of the ball beautifully at just 9.9 turnovers per game (#29), while Washington sits at 11.7 (#135). Illinois doesn’t need to create chaos defensively—they just need to execute their halfcourt offense and make Washington work for every bucket. The Illini score 370 points in the paint compared to Washington’s 326, and at home, that interior dominance should be the difference.
Bash’s Best Bet
I’m laying the points with Illinois -12.5. The efficiency gap is too significant, and Washington’s recent form—1-3 in their last four with losses to Nebraska, Michigan State, and Michigan—shows they’re not built to handle elite Big Ten competition on the road. Illinois’s 126.0 adjusted offensive efficiency (#3) against Washington’s 101.2 adjusted defensive rating creates the exact mismatch the spread suggests.
The total is trickier. I lean under 153.5 based on Illinois’s 62.3 pace, but I’m not betting it with confidence. The side is the play. Illinois wins this one going away, something like 84-68. Take the Illini and don’t overthink it.
