It’s a showcase of elite Big Ten talent as Nick Martinelli leads the Northwestern Wildcats against Eli Rice and the Penn State Nittany Lions. Our CBB Picks focus on Martinelli’s “lava-hot” 23.4 PPG scoring average and how Jayden Reid’s top-30 assist rate will test Penn State’s perimeter rotations.
The Setup: Penn State at Northwestern
Northwestern’s laying 8.5 at home against Penn State, and on the surface, this looks like a straightforward spot for the Wildcats. But here’s where it gets interesting: Penn State enters at 8-1 with one of the most impressive turnover profiles in college basketball, while Northwestern sits at 5-4 but carries better underlying metrics. When you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com efficiency numbers, this spread tells us exactly what the market thinks—that records lie, and adjusted metrics matter more than raw wins and losses.
The Nittany Lions rank #1 nationally in turnover ratio and #2 in turnovers per game at just 8.2, which is absurd. That kind of ball security can mask other deficiencies, and Penn State has some. Meanwhile, Northwestern’s adjusted net efficiency sits at #60 nationally compared to Penn State’s #85, despite the worse record. The market’s saying the better team is at home, getting points for playing fundamentally sounder basketball. Let’s see if that’s the right read.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Matchup: Penn State @ Northwestern
Date: January 29, 2026
Time: 8:00 PM ET
Venue: Welsh-Ryan Arena, Evanston, IL
Point Spread: Northwestern -8.5
Over/Under: 149.5/150
Moneyline: Northwestern -430, Penn State +320
Why This Number Makes Sense (or Doesn’t)
The 8.5-point spread reflects a significant gap in adjusted efficiency that the raw records don’t show. Northwestern’s adjusted offensive efficiency ranks #50 nationally at 116.4, while their adjusted defensive efficiency sits at #110 (104.6). Penn State checks in at #40 offensively (117.1) but falls to #181 defensively (108.0). That’s a massive gap on the defensive end—71 spots in the national rankings.
Here’s what jumps out: Northwestern defends the three-point line at an elite level, ranking #51 nationally by holding opponents to just 29.2% from deep. Penn State shoots 37.6% from three (#43), so something’s gotta give. The pace factors are nearly identical—Penn State at 67.4 possessions (#222) and Northwestern at 68.1 (#196)—so we’re looking at a methodical, half-court game where defensive execution matters.
The total sitting at 149.5/150 makes perfect sense given these tempo numbers. Neither team wants to run, both rank outside the top 190 nationally in pace, and Northwestern’s defensive profile suggests they’ll muck this up. The spread at 8.5 essentially says Northwestern wins by 9-10 in a game that finishes somewhere around 76-67. That’s the market’s projection, and it’s rooted in the efficiency gap plus home court.
Penn State Breakdown: The Analytical Edge
Penn State’s calling card is ball security, and it’s not even close. Ranking #1 in turnover ratio with just 8.2 turnovers per game (#2 nationally) means they’re going to get their offensive possessions. The problem? They don’t crash the glass—ranking #309 in rebounds per game at 33.1—and they don’t get to the line consistently enough (71.7% free throw percentage ranks #179).
The shooting numbers are solid: 50.8% from the field (#26), 56.9% effective field goal percentage (#44), and a true shooting percentage of 60.5% (#50). Kayden Mingo leads at 15.0 points per game, but this is a balanced attack with five guys scoring double figures. The offensive rating of 123.4 (#53) tells you they’re efficient when they execute.
But here’s the concern: Penn State’s defensive rating sits at 103.8 (#147), and their opponent field goal percentage of 45.1% ranks just #253 nationally. They don’t block shots (#352 at 1.6 per game), and while they force some turnovers, this isn’t a lockdown defense. Coming off five straight losses—including an 85-93 shootout at Purdue and a 71-98 blowout against Wisconsin—the metrics are starting to catch up to the record.
Northwestern Breakdown: The Counterpoint
Northwestern’s got the star power in Nick Martinelli, who’s averaging 21.1 points per game (#13 nationally) and provides a legitimate go-to scoring option. Arrinten Page adds 15.4 points and 7.1 rebounds, while Jayden Reid runs the show at point guard with 5.9 assists per game (#30 nationally). That assist rate of 18.3 per game (#33) shows this is a team that shares the ball and creates quality looks.
Defensively, this is where Northwestern separates itself. That 29.2% opponent three-point percentage (#51) is elite, and their overall opponent field goal percentage of 41.5% ranks #104 nationally. They’re not overwhelming athletically—just 5.9 steals per game (#286)—but they defend with discipline and force tough shots.
The concern? Northwestern’s also lost four of their last five, including a 58-77 home loss to Nebraska and a 75-77 road defeat at Rutgers. The offensive rating of 119.5 (#77) is solid but not spectacular, and at 28.7% offensive rebounding (#271), they’re not generating many second chances. This team lives and dies by half-court execution.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game comes down to Northwestern’s perimeter defense against Penn State’s three-point shooting. The Nittany Lions shoot 37.6% from deep (#43) and rely on that spacing to create driving lanes, but Northwestern’s #51 ranking in opponent three-point percentage says they’re going to take that away. If Penn State goes cold from three, their lack of offensive rebounding (#309) means they won’t get many second chances.
The other critical factor is Penn State’s inability to defend without fouling or blocking shots. At #352 nationally in blocks per game, they’re not protecting the rim, and Northwestern’s got two legitimate interior threats in Martinelli and Page who can attack the basket. Penn State’s defensive rating of 103.8 (#147) versus Northwestern’s adjusted offensive efficiency (#50) suggests the Wildcats should be able to score in the half-court.
Tempo favors Northwestern’s style. Both teams want to slow it down, but Northwestern’s better equipped to win a possession-by-possession battle at home. Penn State’s five-game losing streak isn’t a mirage—they’ve been exposed against quality competition, and the adjusted defensive efficiency at #181 nationally tells you they’re vulnerable against teams that can execute offensively.
Bash’s Best Bet
I’m laying the 8.5 with Northwestern, and I’m comfortable with it. Penn State’s 8-1 record is fool’s gold—the adjusted metrics say they’re the #85 team nationally, and that five-game losing streak confirms they can’t hang with quality opponents. Northwestern’s #60 in adjusted net efficiency, they’re at home, and they’ve got the defensive profile to shut down Penn State’s perimeter game.
The key is Northwestern’s three-point defense (#51) against Penn State’s reliance on the three-ball. Take that away, and the Nittany Lions don’t have a Plan B. They don’t rebound, they don’t get to the line, and they can’t defend well enough to win a rock fight. Northwestern wins this 78-68, covering the 8.5 with room to spare. The better team’s at home, and the market’s got this one right.
