The William & Mary Tribe take their top-20 fast-break offense on the road to face the Elon Phoenix at the Schar Center. In our latest CBB Picks, we break down why the Tribe’s #44-ranked adjusted defensive efficiency is the deciding factor against an Elon squad that struggles to get stops, ranking 299th nationally in points allowed per possession.
The Setup: William & Mary at Elon
William & Mary is getting a point and a half on the road at Elon, and if you’re scratching your head wondering why the Tribe aren’t favored by more, you haven’t been paying attention to what’s happening in the CAA. Look, I get it—William & Mary sits at 8-3 with a defensive rating that ranks 53rd nationally while Elon limps in at 5-4. But when you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com efficiency numbers, this line tells you everything about how the market views sustainable offense versus fool’s gold records.
The Tribe run the 6th-fastest pace in college basketball at 77.0 possessions per game. They’re generating volume, racking up assists at a top-10 rate nationally, and defending the three-point line like maniacs—allowing just 26.1% from deep, 9th in the country. But here’s the problem: their adjusted offensive efficiency sits at 111.3, ranking 111th, while Elon checks in at 117.7, good for 35th nationally. That’s not a typo. The home team has a massive edge in offensive efficiency despite the worse record, and it’s anchored by one player who’s been absolutely unconscious.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Matchup: William & Mary at Elon
Date: January 29, 2026
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Location: Schar Center, Elon, NC
Bovada:
Spread: William & Mary -1
Total: 168
Moneyline: Elon -105, William & Mary -115
DraftKings:
Spread: William & Mary -1.5
Total: 168.5
Moneyline: Elon +102, William & Mary -122
Why This Number Makes Sense (or Doesn’t)
The market is essentially calling this a pick’em, and that’s the right read when you account for tempo divergence and home court. William & Mary’s adjusted net efficiency sits at 10.8 (67th nationally) compared to Elon’s 4.1 (127th), which would typically suggest a bigger spread in the Tribe’s favor. But there’s a critical wrinkle here that flips the script.
These teams play at completely different speeds. William & Mary wants to run—they’re 6th in pace and thrive in transition with 198 fast break points already this season. Elon plays at a 67.8 pace, ranking 203rd, and they’re not going to cooperate with William & Mary’s track meet agenda. When you slow down a team that generates offense through volume and pace rather than halfcourt efficiency, you neutralize their primary advantage.
The total sitting at 168 reflects this tension perfectly. William & Mary averages 86.0 points per game, Elon puts up 86.7, which would suggest a number north of 170. But Elon’s pace is going to drag this game into the mud, and suddenly that 168 looks sharp. The spread being essentially a coin flip? That’s the market telling you that Elon’s elite offensive efficiency at home, combined with their ability to control tempo, offsets William & Mary’s superior overall profile.
William & Mary Breakdown: The Analytical Edge
The Tribe do two things exceptionally well: they move the ball and they defend the arc. Ranking 9th nationally in assists per game at 20.0 tells you this is a team built on ball movement and collective offense rather than isolation scoring. They shoot 49.8% from the field (41st) with a true shooting percentage of 61.6% (24th), which means they’re getting quality looks when they execute.
Defensively, this is where William & Mary separates itself. That 26.1% opponent three-point percentage isn’t a fluke—it’s a top-10 mark built on defensive discipline and closeouts. Their adjusted defensive efficiency of 100.5 ranks 44th, and they force the issue with 9.1 steals per game (47th). The problem? They’re 350th in offensive rebounding percentage at 24.4% and turn it over 14.9 times per game (337th). When the pace slows down and possessions matter more, those weaknesses get exposed.
The scoring is balanced with five players averaging double figures, led by Kilian Brockhoff’s 11.7 points per game. That balance is great for withstanding foul trouble, but it also means nobody can take over when the halfcourt offense stalls.
Elon Breakdown: The Counterpoint
Chandler Cuthrell is putting up 22.9 points per game, 4th in the entire country, and he’s the reason Elon’s offensive efficiency is elite despite the mediocre record. When one player accounts for that much of your offense and you’re still ranked 35th in adjusted offensive efficiency, it means the system is working around him effectively. Randall Pettus II adds 15.6 points, and Ja’Juan Carr facilitates at 4.8 assists per game (96th nationally).
Here’s where Elon wins this game: the glass. They rank 50th in offensive rebounding percentage at 35.3%, which is a massive advantage against William & Mary’s 350th-ranked mark. Elon generates second chances, and in a slower-paced game where possessions are precious, those extra opportunities become gold. They also take care of the ball, turning it over just 10.4 times per game (52nd) with a turnover ratio of 0.1 (38th).
The defensive issues are real—113.6 adjusted defensive efficiency ranks 299th—but at home, controlling the pace, Elon can mitigate that by limiting total possessions and maximizing their offensive efficiency advantage.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game comes down to one question: can William & Mary force their tempo, or will Elon successfully slow this into a halfcourt grind? The Tribe want to push off makes and misses, generate transition opportunities, and leverage their superior defensive efficiency. Elon wants to walk the ball up, feed Cuthrell in advantageous spots, and crash the offensive glass.
The rebounding battle is critical. Elon’s 35.3% offensive rebounding rate against William & Mary’s 24.4% is a chasm. If Elon gets second-chance points and extends possessions, they control the game’s rhythm. William & Mary’s turnover issues—14.9 per game—become magnified in a slower game where each possession matters more.
The three-point line is another key battleground. William & Mary defends it brilliantly, but Elon shoots 36.6% from deep (76th nationally). If Cuthrell gets hot from distance and the Tribe can’t speed up the game, this becomes a problem. Conversely, if William & Mary forces tempo and gets Elon’s defense scrambling, that 299th-ranked adjusted defensive efficiency will show up in a hurry.
Bash’s Best Bet
I’m taking Elon +1.5 at home, and I’m comfortable with it. The market is telling you this is a toss-up, and I think Elon’s got the edge in the factors that matter most in this specific matchup. Their offensive efficiency advantage is real, their ability to control pace neutralizes William & Mary’s primary strength, and the rebounding mismatch is too significant to ignore.
William & Mary is the better overall team—that adjusted net efficiency gap is legitimate. But this isn’t being played in a neutral gym at William & Mary’s preferred pace. This is at the Schar Center, where Elon dictates tempo and Chandler Cuthrell gets to operate in space. Give me the points with the home team that has the offensive firepower and stylistic advantages to win this game outright. Elon 82, William & Mary 79.
