The Charlotte Hornets head into Dallas as road favorites looking to extend a five-game win streak. In our latest ATS Picks, we analyze Charlotte’s #8-ranked rebounding rate (45.7 RPG) and how Moussa Diabate’s recent 20-rebound explosion creates a massive possession advantage against a Dallas Mavericks frontcourt missing Anthony Davis.
The Setup: Charlotte Hornets at Dallas Mavericks
The Hornets are laying 4.5 on the road in Dallas on Thursday night, and that’s a line that demands explanation. Charlotte just hit 20 wins after going 19-62 last season—a feel-good story with Brandon Miller and LaMelo Ball finally clicking. They’ve won four straight and just dominated Memphis 112-97 behind Miller’s 26 and Moussa Diabate’s monster 20-rebound performance. Meanwhile, Dallas sits at 19-28, coming off a home loss to Minnesota where they were without Cooper Flagg for ankle injury management on a back-to-back. The Mavericks are also missing Anthony Davis for at least six weeks and Kyrie Irving remains out as he works back from ACL surgery. So the market’s giving you a hot team catching a cold one, right? Not quite. The Hornets are 11-15 on the road this season. Dallas is 14-13 at home. That 4.5-point spread isn’t about momentum—it’s about matchup math and roster construction when you account for who’s actually available to play winning basketball.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Charlotte Hornets (20-28) at Dallas Mavericks (19-28)
Date: Thursday, January 29, 2026
Time: 8:30 ET
Venue: American Airlines Center
TV: Home: KFAA-TV, Mavs.com | Away: FanDuel SN SE, NBA League Pass
Current Betting Lines (MyBookie.ag):
- Spread: Charlotte Hornets -4.5 (-110) | Dallas Mavericks +4.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Charlotte Hornets -182 | Dallas Mavericks +147
- Total: Over 228.0 (-110) | Under 228.0 (-110)
Why This Line Exists
Charlotte’s getting 4.5 points of respect because Miller is averaging 20.5 points, Ball is facilitating at 7.6 assists per game, and Miles Bridges adds another 18.6 points with 6.1 boards. That’s three legitimate scoring threats, and when they’re rolling—like they have been over this four-game win streak—they can overwhelm undermanned rosters. Dallas counters with Cooper Flagg at 18.8 points and 6.4 rebounds, plus Naji Marshall chipping in 14.7 per night. But here’s the issue: Anthony Davis is out until at least early March, and he was their anchor at 20.4 points and 11.1 rebounds. Kyrie Irving remains sidelined as he rehabs from ACL surgery. That’s two franchise-level talents unavailable, which theoretically opens the door for Charlotte to impose their will.
But the line isn’t 8.5 or 10.5—it’s 4.5. The market’s telling you something about Charlotte’s road profile and Dallas’s home environment. The Hornets are 11-15 away from home this season, which means they’re barely above .400 when they travel. Dallas is 14-13 at American Airlines Center, which isn’t dominant but it’s respectable given their overall record. The Mavericks also just played Wednesday night against Minnesota, and while they lost 118-105, Flagg sat for injury management on the first night of a back-to-back. That means he’s fresh for Thursday. The total sitting at 228 reflects two teams that can score but lack defensive consistency—Charlotte just put up 112 on Memphis, and Dallas allowed 118 to the Timberwolves.
Charlotte Hornets Breakdown: What You Need to Know
Brandon Miller is the engine right now. He dropped 26 on Memphis and he’s averaging 20.5 points with 4.4 rebounds and 3.5 assists on the season. When Miller’s aggressive and getting to his spots, Charlotte’s offense flows because it opens up driving lanes for Ball and Bridges. LaMelo Ball at 19.0 points and 7.6 assists gives them a secondary creator who can punish help defense, and Bridges at 18.6 points with 6.1 boards provides versatility on both ends. Moussa Diabate just grabbed 20 rebounds against the Grizzlies, which is exactly the kind of effort play that wins games when your stars are hitting shots.
The concern is sustainability on the road. Charlotte’s 11-15 away from home, which means they’ve struggled to maintain their identity in hostile environments. Mason Plumlee is out until at least mid-February after undergoing surgery for a strained right groin, which limits their frontcourt depth behind Diabate. The Hornets are also riding a four-game win streak, which historically creates regression risk—especially when you’re asking a young core to maintain focus in a building where the home team desperately needs a win.
Dallas Mavericks Breakdown: The Other Side
Cooper Flagg sat Wednesday for ankle injury management, which means he’s rested and ready for Thursday. At 18.8 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 4.1 assists, Flagg is the kind of two-way talent who can exploit Charlotte’s defensive lapses. Naji Marshall at 14.7 points and 4.9 boards gives Dallas a secondary scorer who thrives in transition. The problem is depth. Anthony Davis is out until at least early March, which removes their interior anchor. Kyrie Irving remains sidelined as he continues ACL rehab, though there’s optimism he could return before the All-Star break. That’s two All-Star-caliber players unavailable, which forces Dallas to rely on role players to step up.
But here’s what the market’s respecting: Dallas is 14-13 at home, which means they’ve figured out how to defend their building even without their stars. Daniel Gafford, Dwight Powell, and Moussa Cisse are handling center duties with Davis out, and while none of them replicate his production, they provide enough rim protection to keep games competitive. The Mavericks just lost to Minnesota 118-105, but Julius Randle dropped 31 and Naz Reid added 23—that’s two elite performances from a playoff-caliber opponent. Charlotte doesn’t have that same firepower depth.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game gets decided in the paint and on the glass. Moussa Diabate just grabbed 20 rebounds for Charlotte, but that was against a Memphis team that’s been inconsistent on the boards. Dallas has Gafford, Powell, and Cisse rotating at center, and while they’re not Anthony Davis, they’re physical enough to contest shots and limit second-chance opportunities. If Charlotte can control the offensive glass like they did against Memphis, they’ll generate extra possessions that justify the 4.5-point spread. If Dallas forces them into one-and-done possessions, this game stays tight.
The other factor is pace. The total at 228 suggests both teams will push tempo, which favors the team with better shot quality. Brandon Miller and LaMelo Ball can create open looks in transition, but Cooper Flagg is equally dangerous when he’s getting out in space. The difference is depth—Charlotte’s three-headed scoring attack of Miller, Ball, and Bridges is more reliable than Dallas’s two-man show of Flagg and Marshall. Over 95-100 possessions, that extra scoring option matters, especially if Dallas’s role players can’t knock down open shots.
Charlotte’s road struggles are the elephant in the room. They’re 11-15 away from home, which means they’ve lost more often than they’ve won when traveling. Dallas is 14-13 at American Airlines Center, which isn’t elite but it’s enough to keep them competitive. The Hornets are riding a four-game win streak, but three of those wins came at home or against teams below .500. This is a different test—a rested Cooper Flagg in a building where Dallas has defended home court better than their overall record suggests.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m taking Dallas Mavericks +4.5 for 2 units. Charlotte’s road profile doesn’t support laying points in a hostile environment, even against a shorthanded Dallas team. The Hornets are 11-15 away from home, and while their four-game win streak looks impressive, it’s built on favorable matchups. Dallas is 14-13 at American Airlines Center, and Cooper Flagg is rested after sitting Wednesday’s back-to-back. The market’s giving you 4.5 points with a home team that’s been competitive all season despite missing Anthony Davis and Kyrie Irving.
The risk is Brandon Miller going nuclear and Charlotte controlling the glass like they did against Memphis. But Dallas has enough frontcourt depth to contest shots, and Flagg’s two-way ability keeps this game within one possession. Charlotte’s young core is talented, but asking them to cover 4.5 on the road against a rested opponent is a bridge too far. Take the points with Dallas and trust their home-court edge to keep this game tight.
BASH’S BEST BET: Dallas Mavericks +4.5 for 2 units.
