South Alabama travels to Reed Green Coliseum as a narrow road favorite, and they’ve emerged as a popular ATS pick thanks to a turnover rate that ranks 5th nationally. After digging into the transition data, it’s clear the Jaguars’ ability to protect the rock (8.7 turnovers per game) will be the primary shield against a Southern Miss defense that thrives on creating home-court havoc.
The Setup: South Alabama at Southern Miss
Southern Miss is laying 1.5 points at home against South Alabama on Thursday night, and if you’re expecting some high-flying Sun Belt shootout, pump the brakes. We’re talking about two teams ranked #338 and #350 nationally in pace—this is going to be a rock fight in Hattiesburg, and the spread tells you the market sees two evenly matched squads grinding it out in the half-court. But here’s where it gets interesting: both teams sit at identical adjusted net ratings of 2.1 (#149), yet their paths to that number couldn’t be more different. South Alabama ranks 17th nationally in turnover ratio and protects the ball like it’s made of gold, while Southern Miss gives it away 13.1 times per game (#248) and relies on creating chaos defensively. According to collegebasketballdata.com, we’ve got two teams with elite offensive ratings—South Alabama at 124.8 (#44) and Southern Miss at 125.0 (#42)—but neither can guard a lick. That’s your ballgame right there.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Matchup: South Alabama @ Southern Miss
Date: February 12, 2026
Time: 8:30 PM ET
Venue: Reed Green Coliseum, Hattiesburg, MS
Bovada:
Point Spread: Southern Miss -1
Over/Under: 137
Moneyline: Southern Miss -130, South Alabama 110
DraftKings:
Point Spread: Southern Miss -1.5
Over/Under: 137.5
Moneyline: Southern Miss -148, South Alabama 124
Why This Number Makes Sense (or Doesn’t)
A 1.5-point spread in a conference matchup between teams with identical adjusted net ratings? The market is essentially calling this a toss-up with a slight home-court bump for Southern Miss. And you know what? The efficiency numbers back that up perfectly. Both squads check in with adjusted offensive ratings in the 110-111 range and adjusted defensive ratings in the 108-109 neighborhood. We’re talking about mirror images here.
But let’s dig into that total at 137-137.5, because that’s where the real story lives. With pace factors of 61.0 (#338) for South Alabama and 60.0 (#350) for Southern Miss, we’re looking at approximately 60-61 possessions in this game. That’s glacial. Yet both teams are posting offensive ratings above 124, which means they’re hyper-efficient in the half-court despite the snail’s pace. The math suggests a final score somewhere in the low-to-mid 70s for each side, which puts us right around that 137 number. The market nailed this one.
Here’s the wrinkle: South Alabama’s defensive rating of 112.4 (#282) and Southern Miss’s defensive rating of 116.4 (#327) tell us neither team can stop anybody. When you’ve got two efficient offenses and two porous defenses playing at a crawl, you get a weird game where possessions matter more than usual. Every turnover, every offensive rebound becomes magnified.
South Alabama Breakdown: The Analytical Edge
The Jaguars bring an 8-2 record into Hattiesburg, and their calling card is simple: they don’t beat themselves. That 8.7 turnovers per game mark ranks 4th nationally, and their 0.1 turnover ratio (#17) is elite. When you combine that ball security with an effective field goal percentage of 52.9% (#141), you’ve got a team that maximizes every possession.
Adam Olsen leads the way at 16.1 points per game (#202), but the real engine here is Chaze Harris. He’s putting up 14.2 points and 5.2 assists (#65 nationally), orchestrating an offense that ranks 44th in offensive rating. The problem? South Alabama ranks 315th in offensive rebounding percentage at just 27.1%, and they’re dead last among tournament-caliber teams in blocks per game at 2.3 (#318). They can’t create second chances, and they can’t protect the rim.
Defensively, the Jaguars hold opponents to 39.3% from the field (#43), which looks impressive until you realize their adjusted defensive efficiency sits at 108.5 (#195). They’re getting torched by quality competition, and Southern Miss qualifies as exactly that.
Southern Miss Breakdown: The Counterpoint
The Golden Eagles check in at 6-4, and they’re built completely differently than their visitors. Tylik Weeks (17.7 PPG, #102) and Isaac Taveras (16.7 PPG, #158) form one of the better one-two punches in the Sun Belt, and Taveras adds 7.1 rebounds (#169) and 2.7 assists to his ledger. This is a team that can score multiple ways—they rank 42nd nationally in offensive rating and shoot 47.5% from the field (#93).
But here’s where Southern Miss gets in trouble: they turn it over 13.1 times per game (#248) with a turnover ratio of 0.2 (#314). Against a South Alabama team that protects the ball obsessively, those extra possessions could be the difference. The Golden Eagles also struggle from deep at just 30.5% (#298), and they allow opponents to shoot 36.6% from three-point range (#322). That’s brutal.
The saving grace? Southern Miss ranks 82nd in steals per game at 8.4 and 91st in blocks at 4.2. They create havoc defensively and rank 137th in offensive rebounding percentage at 32.3%, which gives them second-chance opportunities that South Alabama simply can’t match.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game comes down to one fundamental question: can South Alabama’s ball security and half-court efficiency overcome Southern Miss’s ability to create chaos and generate extra possessions? The Jaguars want a clean, methodical game where they execute in the half-court and limit Southern Miss to one shot per possession. The Golden Eagles need to speed things up just enough to force a few extra turnovers and crash the offensive glass.
Look at the recent history—South Alabama won 88-82 and 75-62 in the two most recent meetings, while Southern Miss took a 70-73 decision back in 2024. Every game has been decided by single digits, and every game has featured the visiting team hanging around until the final minutes.
The pace matchup is critical here. Both teams want to play slow, but Southern Miss’s 8.4 steals per game could disrupt South Alabama’s rhythm just enough to create transition opportunities. And with South Alabama ranking 318th in blocks, Weeks and Taveras should get clean looks at the rim all night.
The total feels about right at 137-137.5, but I keep coming back to Southern Miss’s home court advantage and their ability to generate second-chance points. South Alabama’s 27.1% offensive rebounding percentage (#315) is a massive liability against a team that ranks 137th in offensive rebounding.
Bash’s Best Bet
I’m laying the 1.5 points with Southern Miss. Yeah, I know—betting a home favorite in a coin-flip game always feels sketchy. But the matchup advantages are real. Southern Miss’s ability to crash the offensive glass and create extra possessions should be the difference in a game where possessions are at an absolute premium. When you’re playing at a pace ranked 350th nationally, every extra shot matters.
South Alabama’s elite ball security keeps them in every game, but they can’t create second chances and they can’t protect the rim. That’s a recipe for losing close games on the road. Give me the Golden Eagles at home in a grinder that finishes somewhere around 72-69 Southern Miss. This one stays under 137, and the home team covers by a bucket.
