RBD breaks down Liberty vs Mystics with betting analysis, early WNBA reactions, and a strong ATS angle on New York.
New York Liberty at Washington Mystics
NBA Prediction and Analysis for Sunday, May 10th
The WNBA is back!
Yes, it was all there, just like I remembered it – missed free throws, shot clock violation penalties, and air ball layups.
But my favorite play of the night was a classic.
Three seconds left in the Wash/Tor game.
Jump ball between Washington’s 6′ 7″ center Lauren Betts and Toronto’s 6′ 1″ guard Marina Mabrey.
Totally mismatched, Mabrey decided to not even jump.
The ref tossed the ball up in the air and she just walked away.
And here’s where it gets really good – Betts swipes at the ball AND MISSES IT!
I had to hit the replay on my remote to make sure I saw what I thought I saw. And I still couldn’t believe it.
An uncontested jump ball, and she misses it.
Nothing but air!
I love the WNBA.
Toronto Tempo Futures Angle
Washington was losing in the final minute but came back for a win, which is big because I have Toronto’s Regular Season Wins Under 11′.
I didn’t want to see them get a W in their first game of the year.
It’s a 44-game season so averaging it out, the Tempo need to win three in every 11 games.
I’m off to a good start.
Tough Beat on Connecticut
I lost my only recommended play on the Connecticut / New York game.
With just 54 seconds left on the clock.
And, by the friggin’ hook.
I had Connecticut Under 74′.
They scored 75.
The Sun didn’t really shoot well, hitting just 38 percent on FG’s and a lousy (but very WNBA-like) 13% on three pointers.
But they took 83 shots and had 15 free throws because the Liberty was pushing a very up-tempo pace.
Sunday’s Target
My next play is on Sunday.
Lines aren’t out yet so I’ll post an update in the forum with the number I buy. I’m getting the article submitted on Saturday because it’s an early tip off on Sunday and I want people to have enough time to read this and bet along with me if they’d like.
I don’t have enough data collected on my handicapping models, nothing I can use yet, but I watched the games on Friday and picked up a couple of things I think I can use.
Liberty Look Loaded
First, I’m not sure how long it’s going to take the books to catch on to just how good this Liberty team is.
They have players on the bench that would be starting on most other teams.
On Friday, they had the double digit spread covered in the first FOUR minutes of Q1, and never looked back.
They went on to win by 31 points, scoring 105, without Ionescu!
And that was with hitting only 10 of 31 3-pointers.
I expect they’ll be laying double digits a lot this season so I’m going to jump on them and ride ’em until they lose a game ATS.
Washington Matchup
Next up is a trip to Washington.
The Mystics also won their opening game, but they needed the final seconds to come from behind and beat the expansion Toronto Tempo, who are likely the worst team in the league.
Lines aren’t out yet.
I’m hoping for NY in the -6 to -8 range, but wouldn’t be surprised if they’re laying more than that.
I’ll post the line I buy in the PredictEm Forum.
I may add a second bet depending on the line I get.
The Connecticut Sun are not a very good team.
The only reason they went Over the Team Total in their first game is because of the fast pace set by the Liberty.
Be sure to check the PredictEm Forum for updates tomorrow.
Recap
Recap: 0-1
Record: 0-1
Update: Tomorrow’s lines are up at a couple popular books including two of our sponsors.
NY is -6′.
I bought it today because I expected to go higher tomorrow. (edited)
