RBD breaks down this WNBA betting pick with back-to-back trends, total-line movement, and handicapping angles that point to a high-scoring night.
Portland Fire at New York Liberty
A Pick on the Total
In what can only be described as a bit of a masochistic move, I signed up for the WNBA League Pass package this week.
I know I joke a lot about how watching the WNBA is funnier than anything on Comedy Central, but there’s nothing funny about missed free throws and air ball layups when your bet is on the Over.
Here’s a quick comparison of watching games on Amazon Prime versus WNBA league Pass.
On Prime, I click on the game I want to watch, then I click on “Start at the beginning” or “watch live.”
The game comes up instantaneously.
On WNBA League Pass, you have to click on the “watch’ button, then click on the game you want to watch, then click on the arrow in the center of the screen, then click on another arrow in the next screen that comes up.
Too many unnecessary steps with the WNBA league Pass.
Then you have to wait a minute for the game to actually come on. After the screen freezes, it goes to a fuzzy picture, with slow motion. It takes another minute or two before the live feed becomes clear and normal speed.
With Prime, there’s a “stats” button.
This is great for when you bet on a player prop.
You can click on the button and check out where someone is on rebounds or points or whatever you have your money on.
WNBA league Pass also offers a stat button – sometimes.
Sometimes it’s there, sometimes it’s not.
But it doesn’t matter even when it is there because when you click on it the screen freezes.
And stays that way.
You have to use the back button to get back to the live game.
And wait while it goes through the frozen screen and then the fuzzy screen again.
I have to have League Pass because as I’ve written about often here, to maximize your ability to Beat the Books you need to watch games to learn coaches and team’s tendencies.
Unfortunately, the league’s season package is as low quality as the “sport” itself.
But I digress.
For word count purposes.
Because the analysis on today’s play is short and sweet.
It’s Monday.
The New York Liberty played yesterday, Sunday.
Game Two of B2B’s is 3-0 Ov/Un so far this season.
Last season, 2025, the Over was 18-12 in Game Two of B2B’s, good for 60%.
In 2024, the Over was 17-6, 73% on Game Two’s.
Yesterday, the Liberty’s game stayed Under the posted total.
In a Game Two spot where Game One stayed Under in the previous two seasons, the record is 17-11, 60% to the Over.
This season it’s 3-0.
That’s a combined 20-11, 65%.
You see where I’m going with this?
The game also qualifies for a couple of my own, unique handicapping models.
T1 says the game stays Under.
T1 is 3-2 on Unders this season.
T2 says the game stays Under.
T2 is 12-8 on Unders this season.
By taking the Over I’m going against a winning record on both of those models.
But I do have this – there’s only been one other game this season where I had a match, a game that qualified for both models.
It was an Under.
The total on the game was 174.
The game landed on 194, TWENTY points higher.
And by the way, the two teams that played in that game?
Portland and New York.
Gee, what a coincidence.
Today’s game opened at 178′.
It’s down to 176′.
As long as it’s moving in my direction I’ll wait a little bit longer before buying this one.
Both teams are 4-2 Ov/Un this season.
Before their last two games, New York was averaging 100 PPG in their first four this season. They’ve scored 76 and 74 in their last two. Look for them to get back on track tonight against Portland, the second worst scoring defense in the league, giving up 86.3 PPG.
My play:
Port/NY Ov (wait to buy)
Recap: 1-0
Record (corrected): 4-5
Review:
Won with my last play, an Over using Golden State.
In Game Two of B2B’s.
