RBD lays the points with the Indiana Fever on the road in Los Angeles in tonight’s WNBA matchup, backed by two subcategory edges in the Wrong Favorite models and a Sparks team missing Kelsey Plum.
Indiana Fever at Los Angeles Sparks
A Pick on the Spread
Sports bettors are a superstitious bunch, and I’m right up there with the worst of them.
If I have my money on a college football total Over 47, I set the volume on my TV to 48.
Ridiculous?
Of course.
But there it is anyway.
On Monday night I developed a new one.
I tuned in to catch the second half of my bet on the Valkyries on the WNBA League Pass channel. As I went to click the icon on the bottom right of the screen to make it go full screen I thought, “I always switch to the big screen, and I haven’t been doing that well lately. I’m leaving the small window up.”
Ridiculous?
The Valkyries were -6′ Favs on the Rd and were down SU at halftime, but came back and won, and covered.
Not so ridiculous now, is it?
But I digress. Let’s get into tonight’s action.
I’m backing the Caitlin’s on the road as it qualifies for two different systems I use.
First up is a rare play on a WF1 subcategory. In the 2026 WNBA season, 25 games have qualified for WF1 and it has an overall record of 11-14. But when broken down into the subcategory of Hm/Rd, only five have been Hm teams, so it’s a rare play. And it’s a great Fade at 1-4.
LA qualifies and they’re at home tonight.
The game also qualifies for another subcategory I track for both of my models for choosing Wrong Favorites, one that’s been a very profitable Fade on all sports over the years. I haven’t been getting a lot of plays on it this season.
It’s the play I call the Asterisk Spot.
Only eight games have qualified. The traditionally stronger model has been the WF1 Asterisk Spot, and that’s what I have today.
This season it’s 3-4, 0-1 when it’s a Hm team.
So I’ve got two solid spots pointing to fading the Sparks and taking the Caitlin’s.
Let’s dive into the standard stats to see if it supports my play.
The Clarks are 4-4 SU on the Rd and 3-4-1 ATS. Nothing of note there.
The Sparks are 3-7 SU at Hm – ya gotta like that.
Even better they’re just 2-8 ATS. Luv that.
Let’s look at injuries.
Indiana’s Clark and Boston are day to day, game time decisions, but no worries as Indiana has a deep bench.
The Sparks also have two players out, Cameron Brink and Kelsey Plum, who’s a key cog in the LA machine.
Since losing Plum the Sparks have gone 0-3, including their last game, an 18-point loss on their home court to the visiting Seattle Storm who have a record of 6-17.
And not only were all three losses by double digits, but they’ve lost by an average of 20 PPG!
The line opened at Indiana -5′ and is already up a point. I’m buying this one this morning because it is going to go higher.
My play:
Ind -6′
Recap: 1-0
Record: 13-17
Review:
If you told me before tip off that the Golden State Valkyries were only going to score 62 points I would have had my money on the Washington Mystics Monday night.
And if you told me that they were laying -5′ points and only going to score 62, I would have had a LOT of money on the Mystics.
And I would have lost.
Despite a Q1 of just 11 points and a Q4 of just 12 points, the Valkyries managed to not only win SU, but get an easy cover ATS.
How?
From Monday’s article:
“The Valkyries are doing it with defense – they’re the only team in the league holding opponents to under an average of 80 PPG.”
Last night they gave up 49.
Only five times this season have teams been held to under 60 points (including two by Connecticut.)
NO team has been held to under 50. Until last night. The final score, 62-49.
It was an ugly W but I’ll take it.
Thursday night we have a Game Two of B2B’s spot to look at. I’m going to do some ‘capping on it now and may post an early buy notice in the PredictEm Forum. Check there later if you’re interested.
