RBD kicks off the second half of the WNBA season by taking the Over on Toronto at Minnesota, backed by team-specific edges in the T1 and T2 models and expected returns from Harrison and Sabally.
Toronto Tempo at Minnesota Lynx
A Pick on the Total
Earlier this month I wrote that I was five games under .500 and I set a goal – to be back to .500 by the All-Star break so I could use the second half of the season to try and gain some profit.
Mission accomplished, I start the second half one game above .500.
But it’s not going to be easy beating the books at the WNBA this season. I have four standard handicapping models that I use, two systems to find wrong favorites (including two subsets based on whether the team is home or away) and two to find totals.
That’s six base models.
Of the six, four are at or within one game of breakeven, .500, meaning I have no edges to exploit, nothing to play ON or Fade.
This is where digging deeper and breaking the models into other subcategories might help.
For example, my T1 model for picking totals says Tor/Min goes Over today.
T1 Over has a record of 14-15 for all teams (as noted above one of the four that’s break even and gives me no edge to try and exploit.)
It also qualifies as a T2 Under.
T2 Under has a record of 25-24, again no edge.
But digging deeper into the category where I chart team specific numbers, I found an edge.
In the T1 Over spot Toronto is 2-1.
In the T2 Under spot Toronto is 2-4.
Not a lot of data but what I have tells me to play ON T1 Over and Fade T2 Under.
But that’s only one side of the ball.
Next up, I checked Minnesota team specific numbers.
Minnesota has been in the T1 Over spot four times this season and has a record of 3-1.
Minnesota has been in the T2 Under spot five times this season. Three games did stay Under so the record there is 3-2. That’s the only stat that works against me taking the Over today.
Next, let’s look at head-to-head matchups.
These two played each other once this season and the game landed on 172.
Today’s game opened at 183′ and is up to 184/184′.
Based on the previous meetings 172 today’s number looks high. But let’s take a closer look at that 172.
The Lynx scored 100 points in that one, so clearly they weren’t the problem.
Toronto is ranked 7th for offense, PPG, averaging 88.5 per game, or 22 per quarter.
In their game against Minnesota THREE of their four quarters saw them score fewer than 20 points, including a subpar Q3 of 16 points and a very subpar Q1 of just 14 points.
The Tempo shot just 24 of 71 from the field and an even worse 12 of 41 from three point range.
Those numbers will improve tonight.
Toronto was missing key pieces in Harrison and Sabally in that game. Harrison played 22 minutes in their last game before the All-Star break, scoring 26 points. She’s listed as day-to-day but with all the time off due to the All-star game she should be ready to go.
Sabally is also listed as day-to-day but she participated in practice yesterday so hopefully she’ll be ready to go too.
This game is still available at 184 at our sponsor Betonline. Grab it now because it’s going to go higher.
My play:
Tor/Min Ov 184
Record: 21-20
