RBD takes the Chicago Sky team total Over 90.5 in tonight’s WNBA matchup against Connecticut, backed by an extra day of rest and Chicago hitting the number in seven of their last 10 home games.
Connecticut Sun at Chicago Sky
A Pick on Chicago’s Team Total
Handicapping.
It’s like chess.
See the whole board.
Study every angle.
Then make your move.
Did any of you play an Under on Tuesday or Wednesday night’s WNBA games?
Did you consider this angle – the teams were playing on five nights rest.
Is that usual?
No, it’s not.
Did you look at last year’s Tuesday and Wednesday games after the All-Star break to see how games with these rested teams came in, Ov or Un?
See the whole board.
Study every angle.
Then make your bet.
Last season there were six games played on Tuesday and Wednesday after the All-Star break.
Six games with teams playing on five and six days rest.
I know because I checked yesterday morning when I was doing my handicapping.
In those six games the Over was 4-2.
What did this tell me?
Nothing is guaranteed in sports betting, but it told me I would prefer to be on an Over rather than an Under on Tuesday and Wednesday’s games.
For my Tuesday bet I bought the early number on Tor/Min Over at 184.
It closed at 187.
They combined for 193.
In fact, ALL five games went Over the total Tuesday night.
Wednesday night’s games went 1-1 Ov/Un, making these first two nights back after the All-Star break games 10-3 Ov/Un.
Worth making a note as a reminder for next year.
Thus endeth the lesson.
Unfortunately, we have no matchups tonight with both teams on the extended rest due to the all-star break. But I can apply the same principle in a different manner, in the Con/Chi game.
Connecticut played Tuesday night but Chicago didn’t play either Tuesday or Wednesday so they have even one more day of rest than all of the other teams did.
Based on the well-rested-legs get up and down the court quickly, which maximizes scoring, I’m going with the Team Total tonight, taking the Over with Chicago.
The line is 90′.
This number is higher than both Connecticut’s average PPG surrendered, 87.3, and Chicago’s PPG on offense, 87.5.
The point differential on both those stats is three points. So why did the books hang a number on this that’s three points higher than both teams averages, especially when Chicago has some key players out, like DJ (day to day) and Diggins?
Could it be that they’re on to the trend towards the Over on teams playing with more than 5 days rest?
Or maybe the number is weighted towards recent play.
In their last five games Chicago has scored 94, 91, 96, 95, and 91.
ALL higher than tonight’s number.
And they’ve scored higher than tonight’s number in seven of their last 10 Hm games.
My play:
Chi Team Total Ov 90′
Recap: 1-0
Record: 22-20
Review:
Got the second half started on the right foot, banking a W with Tor/Min game Over.
