Las Vegas Aces at Minnesota Lynx
Today will either be a case of:
“If at first you don’t succeed, try, try again”
or
“The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.”
I’m going back to the same spot I used last night, and took a loss on (and also using Minnesota again, who just screwed me on an Over two picks ago.)
My T1 model says today’s game stays Under.
After yesterday’s loss the record on this system is 11-20, a 65% Fade.
It also qualifies for the same subcategory I had in play yesterday, which is now 4-11, a 63% Fade.
In yesterday’s Phx/Con I had a total of 174′.
Phoenix won the first quarter 27-18.
Not only was I on track for the 180 with 45 points scored but they’re paying at a fast pace, running up and down the court, which leads to more shots, which should lead to more scoring.
But, no.
Connecticut won the second quarter by a score of 14-13. Yes, both teams combined for the same amount of points Phoenix scored by themselves in Q1.
My bet was dead at halftime.
But that doesn’t mean Reversion Toward the Mean is setting in so I’m going to ride the same play because the stats are strong.
In addition to the overall numbers for the play, which are league based, all teams, I also have solid numbers for team specific stats for these two when they’re in this spot.
The Aces have been in the T1 Under spot twice this season and both games went Over.
Minnesota has been in the T1 Under spot four times this season and three of four have gone Over.
I just checked the number – the books opened this one at 186 and it’s been bet down to 181′.
So my next stop is to check the injury list to make sure Fee Collier isn’t out.
I don’t see any of the starters out for either side so that’s not the reason for the drop.
Maybe because it’s the Saturday morning early game? A quick check on totals for the Saturday morning opener shows a record of 5-5, and I noticed that one of them was at Minnesota, like today’s game. And it went Over.
Both teams overall numbers favor the Over.
LV is 17-14, Minnesota is 19-12.
For recent play, LV is 3-2 Over, Minn is 2-3.
Head to Head, these two have played once this season and the total landed on 197. Shooting averages in the game, for both teams, were in line with their standard averages, nothing above the ordinary.
Looking for similar results today.
Also looking for the Lynx to come out on fire today after losing their last game to the lowly LA Sparks straight up, at home, as 15-point Favorites.
My play:
LV/Min Ov 181′
Recap: 0-1
Record: 23-23
