Arizona Cardinals at Las Vegas Raiders
One word keeps coming to my mind when I think about what I saw watching the Arizona Cardinals preseason defense in last week’s Hall of Fame game – porous.
Sieve-like is another.
Other thoughts that come to mind are unprepared and poorly coached (I’m still ticked off about the last play of the game, when everyone watching except the Arizona coaching staff knew exactly what Carolina quarterback Haynes King was going to do.)
King finished the day with a line of 21/34, 180 yards, and two TD’s. He also rushed three times, for 39 yards and a TD, the game winner that caught the Arizona coaches sleeping (or clueless.)
Applying what I saw last week to this week’s game, let’s dig deeper into the handicapping theory that says teams that played in the Hall of Fame game have an advantage going into week one because they already have one game under their belt.
I did a 7-year look back and found that the edge is slight as SU, ATS, and Ov/Un all share an identical record of 8-6.
But let’s take a look at Team Totals.
In a 7-year sample of Hall of Fame participants we have 14 follow-up games to look at.
Of those 14 teams, eight have scored 20 or more points in their next game.
That’s 57%, just under the 58% I use as a cutoff to make my bets.
The Arizona team total sits at 19′.
Do I trust the Cardinals to score 20+ points?
Yes, but I have more trust in the fact that their defense will give up more than 20 so rather than buy the Team Total I’m going to take the entire game to go Over.
I’m currently hanging out in Vegas and I’m telling you everywhere I go people are talking about their hometown Raiders. Expectations are high due to the acquisition of Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza, and new head coach Klint Kubiak.
Kubiak comes in off his stint as offensive coordinator for the World Champion Seattle Seahawks, who were the third most efficient team in the league for points scored.
This is Kubiak’s first head coaching job in the NFL so there’s no data to go on, and though it may not have any effect at all on this week’s play I took a minute to look at Seattle’s three preseason games last year.
The first two saw totals of 46 and 49, with Seattle putting up 23 and 33.
The third game of the preseason saw only 27 points combined, but toss that one out the window because the starters were held back to avoid injuries before the start of the regular season.
It’s preseason, so it’s just a guess, but I believe Kubiak and the Raiders, spurred on by a high energy home crowd, are going to put 25+ points on the board this week against that porous Arizona D.
The game opened at 39′ and money’s coming in on the Over. It’s currently sitting at 41 and I’m buying it today because I expect it to go even higher tomorrow, game day, when most people will be putting their bets in.
My play:
Az/LV Ov 41
Record: 0-1
