Weekly Recap and Rant
College Football Review
After a 5-1 start I have no rants this week!
Let’s start with a general recap, all games.
I have the Ov/Un at 51- 44 and a couple pushes.
So much for the theory that defenses are ahead of offenses and you should lean towards playing Unders.
No real edges on totals but Favs/Dogs show some interesting results.
I have Favs at 61-37, covering at 62%.
That’s a very solid edge.
From my article dated September 1st, 2026:
“And now we once again enter the college football season.
My best/winningest sport.
The sport where I use my largest size betting unit.”
I’m a strong proponent of not varying your bet size.
It’s difficult enough to keep your W percentage above 53%, varying your bet size makes it more difficult.
But I do believe in varying your bet size in different sports.
For example, my WNBA bet size is smaller than my NFL bet size.
And there’s a reason why, as noted above, college football is my largest size bet.
In fact, my college football unit dwarfs my bet size and every other sport.
The reason?
History.
I have over 20 years of data that tells me where I consistently make money – college football.
That’s why I stress you should keep records of your play – otherwise, how do you know your strengths and weaknesses?
How do you know where to put your money?
And within each sport I have data on subcategories that tells me where my strengths are. For example, and college football my highest winning percentages on Unders.
Do I bet more on a college football Under than a side play or an Over?
No, again don’t vary your bet size!
But the data is helpful, knowing your strengths and weaknesses can be used to your advantage. For example if I’m trying to choose between two plays, and one is an Over and one is an Under, guess which one I’m going to go with.
And though I didn’t have any Unders to play, my 2026 College Football Battle with the Books is off to a good start at 5-1. My only loss was the Mizoo St/Texas A&M game Over 52′. It landed on 50.
I could blame the Loser Boys from Missouri State for failing to come up with a single point.
But I’m not a finger pointer, unless it’s pointing inwards – it was a bad buy on my part.
Every other early buy was the correct call as the lines moved against me. But while the Aggie game did go higher than the 52′ I bought, it also dropped down and could be had for 48-50 the day before the game.
Easily could have been a W or a Push.
Still, no complaints after a 5-1 start, especially considering that no games qualified for my best play, the NP Under spot.
But one did actually.
Sort of.
Of the 247 games listed in the six year record I’ve shown in a couple previous columns, every one of them was FBS teams only.
On Sunday morning while looking at the day’s games I saw an FCS game that qualified and posted it in the PredictEm Forum, in case anyone was looking for angles.
West Car/Campbell qualified for an NP Under.
The total was in the 69/70 range.
The game landed on 47, staying under by 22 or more points depending on what line you got.
I don’t know how the play does in the FCS.
I know I didn’t track it last year or the year before, but later this morning I’ll be going through my database to see if at any time in those first few years (2021, 2022) I also tracked FCS.
And I’ll definitely be tracking it this season.
Of the other unique handicapping models I chart and play, the WF1 spot is off to a strong start at 2-4 when it’s a Rd game. Small data sample but a solid Fade at 67%.
And one of the other models I use for picking totals, T1, is off to a 0-1 start on Overs and 4-0 on Unders.
In my next article I’ll give you the plays that qualify this week and maybe an early buy or two.
Side note – Indiana is not going to win the National Championship again.
They’re not even going to win their division.
A quick glance at the score of their opener against North Texas looks like it was a dominating performance.
But a closer look shows North Texas owned time of possession, 37 to 22.
Too many mistakes and missed field goals cost the Mean Green, and they folded in the end, but the talent level on Indiana didn’t look anywhere close to last season.
Which is why I’m going to go check the books that have “Games of the Year” to get a bet down now on Ohio State when they face the Hoosiers on 10/17.
Between now and then that number is only going to move in favor of the Buckeyes, who were dominant as expected against a much lower level Ball State team, winning 56-3.
NFL Preview
I only have one outstanding play, Miami Regular Season Wins Under 4′.
On Regular Season Win plays, week one usually has little meaning.
But the Dolphins opener at Las Vegas is huge. It’s one of the few spots that I have marked down as a possible win. If the Raiders can hold serve at home, Miami’s going to have a tough time getting to four wins, according to my analysis of their schedule.
I’m starting the NFL regular season in a bit of a hole as I dropped a few units in the preseason.
Small money though, small bets.
One regular season win is enough to cover my preseason losses (it’s degenerate enough to bet on the preseason, to do so with anything but a smaller than usual bet size is insane.)
I’ll have an article up midweek with my NFL picks for Week 1.
WNBA Review
I finished the regular season at 30-24, so I have a few units to play with should I choose to bet any postseason games. I might not though as I won’t have my strongest play, the Game Two of B2B spot.
In the playoffs, there’s always rest days between games.
Besides, it’s football time.
I can’t believe I watch/bet on the WNBA when it’s not football season, betting on it while football is happening would be sports betting sacrilege…
