Buffalo Bulls at Penn State Nittany Lions
Pick an Analysis
It’s the third week of the season and I still don’t have any plays for my best model, the one I was going to depend on throughout the regular season, the NP Under.
Not even any FCS spots to look at.
So I’ll turn to the same play I used last week for a morning game, my T1 Under model.
It went into play last week at 4-0.
Four games qualified.
They went 3-1, the total now stands at 7-1.
Seven games qualify this week, giving me plenty to choose from:
Buf/Penn St, Tulane/K St, Mia-Oh/Cincy, Fla St/’Bama, E Car/Old Dominion, N Mex/Ok and Virg/W Virginia.
Aside from the 7-1 record for all college teams, I also have a little edge for team specific records. Both Oklahoma and Virginia have been in this spot already this season and both games stayed Under.
I’d like to buy both of them since they each produced a W already, but I’m a little bit gunshy on using Oklahoma after they screwed me last week, losing to Michigan.
But based on that type of thinking I should be on the Virginia game since I used them in Week One as 4-point Favorites over North Carolina State and they rewarded me with a W.
Fortunately both games are late afternoon so I have time to check the early ones first.
The scores haven’t been kind to Over bettors for Buffalo and Penn State. The Bulls are 1-1 and the Lions are 0-2. Despite this, the line opened at 48′ and is up to 49′ with extra juice on the Over. And as I’m writing this two houses moved to 50. Numbers going up so no reason to buy it today.
Both of Penn State’s games this season have stayed Under the number on this one, Buffalo would be 1-1 at this number (I don’t weigh this heavily but I do check it when running the numbers.)
The Lions defense has given up a total of nine points in two games and I’m probably going to need a shutout from them if I’m going to stay Under 49/50 on this one.
My play:
Buf/Penn St Un (wait to buy)
Record: 6-4
Be sure to check the PredictEm Forum for my Saturday morning update. Hopefully I’ll get a game that late qualifies for the NP spot.
Regardless, I know I’ll have at least one additional play. Bet your Week 3 college football picks for FREE by scoring a massive 100% REAL CASH bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $300 when you use bonus promo code PREDICT100 at MyBookie Sportsbook!
