New York Giants at Los Angeles Rams
NFL Pick an Analysis
I feel like I should get a t-shirt that says, “I Bet $ on the NY Giants and Survived!”
I started my 2026 NFL Battle with the Books with an unlikely (for me) bet ON the Giants, a team I avoid due to my hatred of all New York teams. Well, that and the fact that they generally suck and I prefer to bet AGAINST them rather than on them.
But I escaped unscathed as they came away with a 28-20 win.
But that was then, this is now.
That was at Hm, not on the Rd.
And that was against the Cowboys, not against a very angry 0-1 Ram’s team, fresh off a National TV debacle that saw them get not just beaten but embarrassed in their season opener.
They were -3 Favs and were beat SU, 27-7.
Now they come home to meet the Giants and I expect the natural order of things to be restored, on the scoreboard and in my wagering.
I expect the Giants to be on the losing end on the scoreboard and their opponent to be on the betting ticket in my pocket.
The public is supposedly backing the Giants for almost 70%. This number means nothing to me, it has nothing to do with my bet.
Here’s why.
I was at a casino this weekend when someone started talking about public percentages, and how he used it for his main handicapping tool.
I usually avoid these conversations but this guy was a bit of an idiot and a loud mouth so I spoke up.
“Where do you get the information that tells you where the public money is on so you know where to make your bet?”
“I get it from various sites that post the information they get from the books,” he said.
And then I hit him with one of my favorite lines, one that usually has them scratching their head trying to come up with an illogical response to my statement, or digging a deeper hole of denial.
“The Books? You mean the business that has one purpose in life – to take your money. You mean that ‘Book?'”
I usually depart the conversation at that point but if the guy is a particularly bulbous dimwit I give him one more bit of information to help him see the light.
“I ran a book on the Vegas strip. When I had lopsided action on one team and was asked about where the money’s coming in, do you think I gave out information that would make my risk even greater or information that would help me reduce that risk?”
Despite the logic I proposed, some people are beyond being helped.
Back to the Giants game.
Although I prefer to not be on the side the public is on, I don’t base my bets on it and I certainly don’t base them on information that comes from the Books.
Being well read is being well informed and it’s not hard to judge where the public money is coming in by simply perusing Forum Land.
But based on Week One results (the Giants convincing win and the Rams embarrassing loss) combined with Joe Public’s tendency to overreact after just one game, I would not be surprised at all if the overwhelming majority of bets are coming in on New York.
And it’s not just the public that overreacts.
Monday morning I saw a headline on ESPN asking if the Bears are the best offense in the NFL.
It was ONE game!
How do we know the Bears aren’t a mid-level offense and their 59 points was due to Carolina having the lousiest defense in the league?
Again, it was one game.
The public is likely on the Giants which makes me happy to take the Rams.
Plus there’s this: my WF1 model says the Rams have been made the Wrong Fav.
It says the Giants should be the Favs.
Only one game qualified for this spot last week.
Who?
The Broncos.
They lost to KC.
By TWENTY-ONE points.
On Monday Night Football.
MNF, just like this week’s Giant’s game.
What a coincidence.
Yes, it’s an almost invisible data sample of just one game, but WF1 Rd teams are 0-1, so another way of looking at it is this play has never lost! (Yes, that’s sarcasm.)
The Rams have a chance to redeem themselves on national TV.
And I’m riding with them (after all, I am an Aries, the Ram.)
The number was as high as LA-8, but as noted above New York money is coming in
The WAN (Widely Available Number) is -7 and almost every house has reduced juice for those who are laying the number.
And I see two places (including one of our sponsors) have already dropped to -6′.
I don’t use numbers that most people can’t get.
For now I’ll wait to see if -6′ becomes the WAN.
If it does, I’ll use that, if not I’ll use -7.
I’ll post an update in the Forum Monday morning.
My play:
LAR (wait to buy)
Record: 1-0
