Weekly Rant and Review, September 29, 2026
My Rant section is usually reserved mainly for head coaches, followed by players, and refs.
Coaches receive the bulk of my wrath (well, they don’t actually receive it personally but I constantly flirt with the idea of signing up for social media so I could send them Twitter/X messages and Instagrams pointing out how f****** stupid they are sometimes.)
I have zero tolerance for people making millions of dollars annually yet fail to grasp the basic concept of games, such as how to properly use timeouts, switching from an effective game plan that’s working to the prevent defense, which usually results in preventing them from winning, etc, etc.
But this week it’s not coaches, players or the refs.
I turn my wrath inward and point the finger of stupidity at myself.
HOW MANY MISTAKES CAN I MAKE ON JUST ONE GAME??!!
Navy/UAB
First mistake – I’m thinking I have a possible NP Under when it actually qualified for an Over.
I’m so desperate to get my first NP Under of the Season that I’m actually hallucinating numbers?
Second mistake – I do a detailed write up on why I’m going to buy the Under, then change it at the very end of the article and go with the Over.
What’s one of the basic rules of handicapping?
Much like multiple choice questions on a test, NEVER change your original choice!!!
Third mistake – I bet on an NP Over (the first game that qualified this year) without checking last year’s numbers first. I know over the past six years the play usually comes out to about .500, no edge ON or AGAINST, but as I noted in my article on the BEST College Football Betting System, dated September 1:
“Overs usually come in at about .500 so there’s no value in playing ON or AGAINST them.
But last year they charted in at 6-12, a very profitable 67% Fade so I’ll be keeping an eye on those this year, and sharing them here at PredictEm, too.”
I shared it all right, and I bought and recommended a play ON a spot that was a 67% Fade AGAINST!
And despite a THIRTY POINT second quarter I can’t get a win on Over 51!
Fortunately, Ohio State came through for me with my second play so I get out of the week at 1-1.
My season record is now 7-7, but with a few weeks of data behind me now I’m poised and positioned to start banking a profit.
Or maybe not?
My weekly Rave is not over yet.
There were three games that qualified for NP Overs last week (yes, I should have followed up the Navy game with a Fade on one or both of the other two games that qualified for the Over, but hindsight yadda yadda yadda.)
All three Overs stayed Under.
It was 6-12 last season.
It’s already 0-3 this season.
As I said, I’m poised and positioned to pounce on it this week.
BUT – no games qualify.
Under or Over.
Ffffffff meeeee.
And my main models?
WF1 has a record of 9-8, 2-0 Hm, 7-8 on Rd.
No edges there.
T1 is 19-18, 8-7 Ov, 11-11 Un.
No edges there.
I’m not looking forward to college play with my usual enthusiasm this week.
NFL Review
As for the NFL, I only made one bet last week.
(I had a forum play on Monday night’s game but that will count for next week as I’ll explain in a future article on when wagering weeks begin and end.)
I took NY QB Winston, the INT machine, to do what he does best – throw an INT.
First possession of the game he hits the cornerback right in the numbers.
And…he drops it.
Brings to mind the old saying, “That’s why you’re not a wide receiver.”
Unfortunately that was my only real shot at an INT for the day. Coach Harbaugh kept passing attempts limited as expected. Winston only threw the ball 22 times. Hell, most of the other quarterbacks had that many completions!
It didn’t help that the Titans remained scoreless through the first three quarters, allowing the Giants to rely on the run game and keeping Jameson from having to throw the inevitable INT.
But like a dog with a bone I’m not letting this one go. I’m planning on using it again this week.
Winston can’t possibly go two games in a row without throwing an INT.
And it’s a more favorable matchup this week.
The Giants face the Cardinals who are averaging 23 PPG, instead of last week’s opponent, the offensively challenged Titans who are sitting dead last in the league, with a meager scoring average of just 12 PPG.
Miami Regular Season Wins Update
On a positive note, my only Regular Season Wins Bet, Miami Under 4′, is progressing as planned.
To hit 5 W’s, they need to win one out of every four games. In the first set of four I marked the Raiders as the only possible W.
The Dolphins lost that one.
This was followed up by losses to the 49’ers and Chiefs, as expected (though KC came out flat, and the slackers allowed Miami to keep it close going into the 4th quarter before pulling out the win.)
With Willis running the offense Miami is right where I expected them to be.
They’re dead last on offense at just 12 PPG.
And on D they rank 28th, giving up almost 30 PPG, putting them in dead last for point differential at -50.
I expected their offense to blow but the fact that the defense sucks too is icing on the cake.
Next up, at 3-0 Minnesota, who are double-digit Hm Favs, which means I’ll make it through the first four games of the season right where I need to be at 0-4
