Western Kentucky at New Mexico State
It’s not going to be an easy week for college football. With a full month of data behind me, I should have a couple of easy choices to make, but no.
I have no NP spots to choose from this week. Hopefully, line movements will change that and I’ll have something for the Forum on Saturday morning.
My WF1 model for picking Wrong Favorites is at 9-8: 2-0 at Hm and 7-8 on the Rd. Nothing to play ON or AGAINST.
My T1 model for picking totals is at 19-18: Ov 8-7 and Un 11-11. Nothing to play ON or AGAINST.
Despite those depressing stats, I have a few slight edges on tonight’s total, so I made a buy on the Over.
First, though it’s not much of an edge, T1 Over does have a winning record at 8-7, and tonight’s game qualifies.
Second, I’m deep enough into the season that I can get team-specific stats. In other words, the record of 8-7 is for all teams. But team-specific-wise, I have Western Kentucky already in the spot once this year.
In Week 2, the Hilltoppers qualified for a T1 Over spot in their game against Georgia. The total on the game was 54½. The score landed on 90, easily going Over.
Yes, 70 of those points came from Georgia, but if I’m playing the Over, do I care if it’s the Hilltoppers scoring on offense or their defense giving up points? No, I do not. As long as somebody is scoring.
But it wasn’t only Georgia doing the scoring in that game. Western Kentucky put up 20 points against the Bulldogs, a top-25 defense that only gives up approximately 16 PPG. And tonight they get an Aggie team ranked 114th on defense, giving up 35 PPG.
And Western Kentucky is even worse. In fact, they are THE WORST, ranked dead last in the nation and giving up 52 PPG.
Yes, that number is skewed by the 70 they gave up to Georgia, but in their other two games they gave up 49 and 38. Similarly poor play tonight should get this one Over.
So I’ve got a league-wide spot with a slight winning edge at 8-7. I have a team-specific spot that has Western Kentucky at 1-0. I have two of the worst defenses in the league.
And I have a little more.
College teams are used to playing on Saturdays. Weekday evenings on national TV provide a whole different feel for them. There have been three Thursday night games this season. Small data sample, but the Over is 2-1.
Looking at standard stats, Western Kentucky is 3-1 Ov/Un. Three of their four games have gone Over the total on tonight’s game.
New Mexico State is 2-2 Ov/Un. Two of their four games have gone Over tonight’s number.
Head-to-head over the past three seasons, two of the three games have gone Over.
The total on this game is all over the place. It opened at 53 and went as high as 58. A Buy Back from bettors looking for a middle has brought it back down to 56½.
This means I have to break one of my rules to bet this one: “Do not buy games where the line has moved three or more points against the line you’re going to get.”
The game dropped from 57 to 56½ this morning. No sense buying it now. It’s moving in the right direction, and hopefully more Buy Backs will come in and I can get that hook knocked off.
Pittsburgh at Cleveland
The board is split right now between Pit -3 and -2½. While there are still plenty of houses to get the +3 at, I’m jumping on the Hm Dogs.
Both teams come in with a record of 2-1 SU and ATS. This is the Steelers’ second Rd game of the season. In their first trip away from Pittsburgh, old man Rodgers led the offense to just three points. Even worse, it came against a struggling New England team.
With a win tonight, Cleveland can take sole possession of first place in the division. When was the last time you were able to say THAT???
Yes, I’m not crazy about betting on Watson, but it could be worse for me. At least Shedeur isn’t under center.
Watson should be playing with a little confidence for a change after last week’s game against Carolina. Down by a score of 18-13 in the final minutes of the game, he led the Browns on an eight-play, 65-yard drive, culminating in a 14-yard TD pass and a successful pass on the two-point conversion to secure the 21-18 win.
Thursday Night Football Picks
Western Kentucky/New Mexico State Over — WAIT
Cleveland +3
Season Records
College: 7-7
NFL: 2-2
